Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- A primary election shakeup is reshaping New York politics.
- Zoran Mandami’s campaign engaged young voters effectively.
- Andrew Cuomo’s aloofness contributed to his defeat.
- Donald Trump continues to motivate both Republicans and Democrats.
- Mandami’s focus on affordability resonated with voters.
- Tish James emerged as a significant figure in the election.
- Business concerns about Mandami’s proposed tax policies are growing.
- Eric Adams could be a formidable opponent in the general election.
- State leadership’s endorsement may influence the election outcome.
- The Democratic Party in New York is leaning further left.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:01.735)
A primary election shakeup is rattling the political landscape. Hi everybody. And thanks for joining us from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell for our Monday morning minute, the podcast version of our fast growing newsletter, Monday morning memo. It’s when we check in with Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell and associates, a top New York lobbying firm for more insight on the hot topics this week. Primary day results across New York are causing a power shift.
Let’s bring in Jack to break down what happened, what it means, and what’s coming next. Hi Jack, and welcome to the podcast.
Jack O’Donnell (00:39.296)
Hi Joanna, great to be with you from the lobby after another really eventful week in New York politics.
Joanna Pasceri (00:47.623)
Yes, the biggest race. The biggest race was the Democratic primary for New York City mayor, a race that a lot of people thought would be the big comeback for former Governor Cuomo, who appeared to have the edge, but pulling it out was a young assemblyman from Queens. What happened here?
Jack O’Donnell (01:07.234)
Well, man, this was a wild race. mean, you know, you said it well. Andrew Cuomo was the favorite in this race. came into the campaign with the most money. He garnered the most endorsements from labor, from elected officials. But he also ran a campaign like that. He ran a real rose garden campaign. was Late to get into the race, he went out of his way to sort of avoid the press. were, you know, dozens of candidate forums from issue groups and folks all across the city, including one we helped put on with New Yorkers Against Gun Violence. I mean, there were a lot of places where candidates were in their act being with the public and Andrew Cuomo wasn’t a part of that. was really staying away, staying…
Jack O’Donnell (02:13.701)
People saw this, right? They saw the former governor as aloof. There were a lot of people. And look, he finished a strong second in this race, but a lot of people who saw him as a tough, tested negotiator, manager who could help the city through the Donald Trump years. you know, I think the…There are two major factors that undid him and one was Donald Trump. that means, and we saw this again, we saw this five years ago or even longer during the first Trump administration is that Donald Trump has a unique ability to motivate Republicans, but he also has a really unique ability to motivate Democrats.
And that is left-leaning Democrats who object to Trump, object to his policies. And we saw a lot of those people come out in New York City and those are not indrequamal Democrats. So that was one big factor. The other big factor, and this is probably the bigger one, was Zoran Mandami himself. He is a young man who has served two terms in the state legislature.
You know, in that role, he was involved in a couple big causes around some funding relief for taxi drivers around a pilot on a couple lanes for the MTA buses that would be free. But he hasn’t been a huge leader on a lot of issues. But what he did do is run an incredible campaign. You know, he was the opposite of Andrew Cuomo.
He put himself out there, he engaged with the public, whether that was doing a polar bear plunge in the East River months ago in a suit and a tie to highlight his support for a rent freeze. And he offered a real agenda that appealed to working class New Yorkers who were impacted by the rising costs. He really talked and focused his campaign on affordability. And here’s the biggest thing, Joanna, is it worked. 25 % of the people who voted in the New York City election on Tuesday were new voters. That’s something that never happens. The only time really we saw anyone do that in the past was Barack Obama in 2008. The biggest group of voters were people 18 to 24. The second biggest group of voters were people 25 to 30. Usually those large group of voters are over 50 or even over 65. So, you know, the real push here with young new liberal voters and they responded to Mondami’s message, whether it was that rent freeze, whether it was making all MTA bus is free, whether it’s finding ways to really deliver for the young and for the cost conscious and cost challenged in New York City.
Joanna Pasceri (05:50.517)
Did you check?
Jack O’Donnell (05:51.862)
Yeah, did you hear me?
Joanna Pasceri (05:53.898)
Yes, I’m sorry. I have it on do not disturb, but a call went through. I’m sorry. I didn’t hear the last little bit, but it’s probably recorded on there. It was just because my phone was interrupted. So you break down in the memo, the supporters and critics of Donnie and noting that New York attorney general Tish James, speaking of Barack Obama, sees him as an up and comer comparing him to another Obama, but
Jack O’Donnell (05:55.628)
Okay.
Joanna Pasceri (06:23.113)
The business community is not so taken by this candidate. What’s the issue here?
Jack O’Donnell (06:28.321)
Well, let’s talk first about Tish James. I I think she’s one of the big winners in this election. She was one of the elected officials who didn’t rush to get on the Trump bandwagon, or excuse me, on the Cuomo bandwagon. And I think that, you know, obviously there’s some animosity there after she authored the report that helped drive him from office.
But, you know, she didn’t just talk about it. She supported candidates. She gave a really fiery closing speech at the Working Families Rally that helped run Mondami to election night then after he declared victory, you know, she was the one introducing him. So, you know, big win for Tish James, who really kind of straddles the different wings of the Democratic Party.
At the same time, big business is very, very concerned. First and foremost, know, Mondami has talked about all these free things and he’s talked about them by paying for them with a tax on the highest earners in New York. you know, setting aside the logistics of that, which would require state legislation, know, state budget decisions to raise those taxes and a state decision to give that money to New York City, right? The former always can happen in New York to raise the taxes. It’s much less likely the state would then turn around and give the money to the city. know, business is very concerned about that, very concerned about driving away some of the wealthiest New Yorkers who often are the ones who are investing in business, creating jobs.
And you know, those are also, especially in New York City, the folks who are invested in real estate. Mondami has talked about a rent freeze. Now, obviously, he means that around rent controlled apartments and not market-rate apartments, but the electorate may or may not get that distinction. And so, you know, we’ve heard a lot of concern from folks who own real estate, invest in real estate.
Jack O’Donnell (08:44.546)
And there’s some concern that as a 33-year-old with, you know, who’s managed a staff of four in the state assembly on that this is a big leap for him and whether he’ll be able to actually manage the city of New York is a open question. And so they have they have their concerns. You know, we wrote a little in the memo about an upcoming meeting being broken by the New York City Partnership.
And we’ll see if Dami is able to kind of garner support through some of those elites and some of those business owners. I don’t know, it remains to be seen on his campaign. I will note that while there are plenty of examples, a lot of folks have turned to the progressive mayor of Chicago as an example of how inexperienced on progressive sometimes fail in governing on but also highlight michelle woo in boston who adds came in with with similar you know experience and she’s exceeded i think everyone’s expectation on and turned a lot of those doubters into believers in boston so you know this could go any which way and there’s still a lot of this story yet to be written joanna.
Joanna Pasceri (10:07.558)
So now we head into November with the current mayor on the ballot running on the independent line. Is Eric Adams going to be a factor in this race?
Jack O’Donnell (10:17.727)
Well, absolutely. mean, I think if anyone is going to defeat Mondami in the general election, it would be Eric Adams. Now, Eric Adams has has been ethically challenged, right? We’ve covered at length his indictment, the dismissal of the indictment, the fights within the Department of Justice around that dismissal. But he’s got a really tough road to go, right? Mondami will be the Democratic nominee.
Andrew Cuomo looks like he will also be on the ballot on an independent line, though there’s no indication yet that he’s going to be campaigning. And we’ve heard a lot of, we’ve already seen some of the union support move from him to Mondami. And there is a Republican nominee, Curtis Silva, who ran four years ago, who’s known for his work with the Guardian Angels and his love for cats. But who’s not a serious threat to win this race. So, know, Eric Adams, look, he’s won a race before. He actually has the office. And he came out swinging on Tuesday, taking some really tough shots at Mondami and suggesting, you know, he’s the one to run the city and save it from the democratic socialists. So, you know, we’ll be watching that, whether he’s able to do that, how he does it with Cuomo and Silva on their respective lines, that’s gonna be really tough for him. the business community that is turned off by Mondami, the question is where do they go? And I think the answer to that is probably Eric Adams, but whether that’s enough to win is another story.
Joanna Pasceri (12:05.16)
Well, so far, Governor Hochul has stopped short of endorsing a candidate for New York City mayor, as well as New York Democratic leaders in Congress. So are they going to stay out of this one?
Jack O’Donnell (12:16.256)
I wouldn’t be surprised if they did, or it may be a mix. Governor Hochul, Senator Schumer tweeted nice things out about Mondami. Schumer noted that he had worked with him on saving the taxi insurance pool and doing some of that work.
Jack O’Donnell (12:43.614)
Before you dig into his ideas, the broader idea of a democratic socialist running one of the largest cities and the headquarters of the financial capital of the world is scary to a lot of people. And make no mistake, Republicans in New York, in New York state, and in the country are gonna do everything they can to make it scary. And they’ve already been kind of poking, Hochul poking Schumer. We expect a lot more of that as they try to divide the Democratic Party. So what the leadership does at the end, I wouldn’t be surprised if they try to eat their cake and have it too.
Joanna Pasceri (13:30.471)
Well, the memo also dives into the Democratic mayoral primaries held in New York City’s across upstate and many left leaning candidates winning these races as well. Is this a sign of where the Democratic Party in New York is headed?
Jack O’Donnell (13:47.072)
Well, it’s at least a sign of where the Democratic Party is. I mean, I think some of that is that the folks who won a lot of these races were very well positioned to do it. They ran better campaigns. They have better, broader, more experienced histories for the most part coming into the races. But I also think Donald Trump, again, motivates Democrats and motivates on further left leaning Democrats. I think you see that and are going to continue to see that play out, but also it reflects the fact that the primary electorate is always further to the left than the broader Democratic Party.
Joanna Pasceri (14:32.496)
I want to make a quick mention of a webinar you are hosting next Monday. It is July 7th on legislation reshaping the consumer protection and data privacy landscape here in New York. Check out our memo for a link to register to this webinar. Quickly though, Jack, what should businesses know about this legislation?
Jack O’Donnell (14:51.517)
Well, it is changing really this landscape is changing really quickly and it is also changing as things evolve at the federal level and New York State is really stepping in to be a leader and that is for good and for ill depending on where you sit and how prepared you are. So this is with one of our partners, Mariah Jaworski, who is just one of the top lawyers in the country on these issues. so the two of us are going to spend a little time trying to break it down and prepare people for what’s coming so they can prepare their business.
Joanna Pasceri (15:34.787)
News definitely that they should know. Do you have a favorite news link this week in the memo?
Jack O’Donnell (15:40.35)
Well, I’ll tell you, you know, again to stick with this primary theme we we even highlighted a bunch of Links about the New York City race and and have some about the other upstate races But one of the ones we didn’t highlight but I thought was really really interesting was An article from the Wall Street Journal about how Zoram and Dami dressed throughout this campaign about his suits about his ties how he was able to you know, signal to his sort of progressive group, but also at the same time present a very safe image for people who were unsure to vote for him. So I find that really fascinating.
Joanna Pasceri (16:23.834)
Yeah, it was very cool indeed. Jack, as always, thanks so much for your insight.
