In this episode, Joanna Pasceri and Jack O’Donnell discuss the current political climate, focusing on the implications of Trump’s spending bill, the dynamics of the New York City mayoral race, and the potential gubernatorial run by Elise Stefanik. They also touch on the recent efforts in gun violence prevention in New York and the challenges faced by Democrats in the upcoming elections.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- Congress is working around the clock to pass Trump’s spending bill.
- The president’s influence over his party is unprecedented since LBJ.
- Democrats face challenges in messaging against cuts from the spending bill.
- Polling indicates the spending bill is unpopular with the public.
- New York State could lose $13 billion due to the bill’s cuts.
- The impact of cuts to rural hospitals will have political ramifications.
- Mamdani has strong support from the Democratic establishment.
- Cuomo’s campaign presence complicates the mayoral race.
- Stefanik is increasingly likely to run for governor.
- Gun violence prevention efforts are showing positive results.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:01.713)
Summer is heating up and so is the political scene from the campaign trail to congress a lot is going on, hi everybody. Thanks for joining us From the Lobby with Jack O’donnell for our Monday Morning Minute. This is our weekly conversation when we delve into the topics highlighted in our Monday Morning Memo with Jack, Managing Partner of O’donnell and Associates, a top New York lobbying firm. So let’s dive right in Jack. Welcome to the podcast.
Jack O’Donnell (00:30.291)
Hi Joanna, you’re right it’s summer but man things have not slowed down.
Joanna Pasceri (00:36.349)
No, it’s been nonstop, especially for Congress, working around the clock to pass Trump’s massive spending bill by July 4th. You write in the memo about the challenges lawmakers faced. How did they pull it off?
Jack O’Donnell (00:50.572)
Well, they pulled it off this week the same way they have over the last month, which is, you know, everyone in Congress agreed to do what Donald Trump wanted. The power that the president wields over his party, I don’t think we’ve seen that since LBJ. You know, certainly democratic presidents who had majorities didn’t didn’t have that kind of influence over the majorities but you know we saw the president you know less focused on maybe the ins and outs of the bill and just more importantly that it had to get done and and i think you know I think that was really smart you know one of the things several republican members of congress have said to me was that the best thing they did was set that java life for deadline because it gave them something to work for and a reason to hold people accountable and it worked.
Joanna Pasceri (01:52.84)
What about the fallout from the steep cuts in this bill that is now signed into law? What will it mean for New Yorkers and what can the state do about it?
Jack O’Donnell (02:02.381)
Yeah, I mean, that’s the $64,000 question, Joanna. mean, one of the most interesting parts about this bill is that big parts of it and any number of cuts are put off for, in some cases, a year and in some cases, two years to push it past the midterms. so, I think that is a really important dynamic here. Once again, you you’re gonna hear democrats screaming about cuts and and how everyone’s gonna lose services and then folks are gonna see it or at least they are gonna see it immediately leading to more you know more sentiment that democrats are just crying wolf so you know i think that is a really tough messaging opportunity or challenge for the democrats as as a result of this
At the same time, polling already says that the bill is not popular, at least with the public and for what they know is in it. But Democrats are saying that New York State is going to lose at least $13 billion, mostly around Medicaid and with particularly hard impacts on rural hospitals. So that’s going to be really, really challenging. mean, that is not an amount of money that the state has in reserves or that they can make up. And so, you know, this is the challenge to Democrats. they raise taxes to try to find other ways to provide those services? Do they…you know want the cuts to go into effect to have political ramifications for the folks that passed it i don’t think they know yet i think democrats message in response has been a been a model mass and then the other interesting piece here is that republicans are are are saying i’m repeatedly that that the people who are going to be caught are not you know we’re not the people who rely on this that it’s it’s waste fraud and abuse that that that’s what the cuts are going to come from i don’t think that’s true and I don’t think that’ll that’ll play out that way but it’s going to be it’s going to be a slow roll and a long time before we really know how this plays out.
Joanna Pasceri (04:41.191)
So, because of that, how effective do you think it will be if Democrats try to use this against Republicans in the upcoming elections?
Jack O’Donnell (04:49.673)
Well, they’re going to try and they’re already trying, right? We saw a record-breaking speech from Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries. But you know, number one, the places where they can use these arguments are limited. A bunch of Democrats are very upset about that. That doesn’t necessarily help you win any races that you weren’t already winning.
And if Republicans can stick to and find ways to expand on their waste, fraud, and abuse message, that’s going to be powerful. That said, the cuts to rural hospitals, and as we see, you know, hospitals talking about that or people feeling those impacts, that’ll absolutely have a political price.
Joanna Pasceri (05:39.42)
Speaking of upcoming elections, the race for New York City mayor is going strong now. You write in the memo about growing support for Assemblyman Mamdani since winning the Democratic primary. Do you think he has what it takes to win in November?
Jack O’Donnell (05:54.205)
Well, we certainly see a lot of the Democratic establishment coming around behind him. We saw several really powerful and wealth-financed unions lining up behind him since primary day. His campaign has taken a couple hits as we’ve seen a lot of opposition research being dropped, but I think it would take something extraordinary for him to not win.
And so, you know, he ran an incredible campaign. He brought out a lot of new voters, and I suspect he’ll be able to do the same thing on election day.
Joanna Pasceri (06:34.811)
Calls are growing for Andrew Cuomo, who will be on a third party line on the ballot in November, to get out of the race. How long before do you think he does that? Does he back out?
Jack O’Donnell (06:45.534)
Well, you know, being Andrew Cuomo, his people are out there today saying everybody else should get out of the race, you know, because I think that’s the Andrew Cuomo mindset. I would be surprised to see Andrew Cuomo drop out. I would also be surprised to see him campaign vigorously, you know, unless there’s some kind of October surprise here and we see, you know, some kind of epic collapse from Mondami and from current mayor Eric Adams. Adams has a lot more resources, support among black and independent voters. I think a lot of people think he’s the logical standard bearer for the center for the right against Mondami.
Cuomo and Adams are still in this, along with Republican nominee Curtis Silva. It doesn’t matter what any of them do. You can’t have three of them and expect to make any real headway against the Democratic nominee.
Joanna Pasceri (07:55.448)
It’s more than a year away, but you write in the memo about a campaign stop in Erie County for Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who is eyeing a run for governor next year. Can she beat Governor Hochul on Hochul’s home turf?
Jack O’Donnell (08:09.706)
Well, you know, I was a little skeptical that Congresswoman Stefanik was really interested in running for governor, though it originally just sort of seemed like she missed out on the UN job and was back in Congress and maybe thought it’d be fun to kick KathyO’Connell in the teeth. But it increasingly looks like, you know, she’s going to mount a campaign. Look I think anyone who counselor out is making a mistake i mean she has proved her metal in a bunch of different races whether they’re for congress or or in congress in sort of what she’s gotten done in who she’s taken on I think anyone who who underestimates her only has to ask the the former president of of harvard and and those other universities you know what to do because they’re out looking for jobs and and stephane is still going you know a lot of this has to do with the earlier point out how does that big beautiful bill play out how did those cuts resonate do voters in embrace them or or they leery you know midterms are are always a difficult time for the party empower with very very rare exceptions in the last hundred years
So we’ll see, but we’re gonna be watching, and all I can say is buckle up.
Joanna Pasceri (09:41.579)
Exactly. So favorite news link in this week’s memo.
Jack O’Donnell (09:46.045)
You know, I will point to the signing of the governor on codifying the New York State Office of Gun Violence Prevention into law. That was something that our firm worked on in conjunction with New Yorkers Against Gun Violence, getting something like that done, getting the governor to do it.
And, you know, it seems from the stats, this office of gun violence is making a real difference in the number of shooting, the number of homicides from gun violence, and that’s just incredible. You know, that’s why we’re here, and, you know, it’s the honor of my life to support that kind of work and try to make a difference in people’s lives.
Joanna Pasceri (10:36.249)
proud effort indeed. Jack, thanks always for a great talk.
Jack O’Donnell (10:41.224)
Thanks for having me.
