In this conversation, Jack O’Donnell discusses the implications of the GOP’s tax and spending bill on New York, the political messaging surrounding it, and the upcoming elections. He highlights the challenges the state faces with potential federal cuts, the impact on healthcare and SNAP, and the political strategies of Governor Hochul. The discussion also touches on the dynamics within the Democratic Party and the competitive landscape of the gubernatorial race.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- New York is facing significant financial challenges due to federal cuts.
- The messaging divide between Democrats and Republicans is stark.
- Both sides have valid points regarding the impacts of the tax bill.
- Governor Hochul is using the situation to bolster her approval ratings.
- The race for New York City mayor is heating up with new candidates.
- Assemblyman Mondani is trying to find common ground with business leaders.
- The Democratic Party is experiencing internal conflicts and challenges.
- Fundraising will play a crucial role in the upcoming gubernatorial race.
- Political ads will soon inundate viewers as campaigns ramp up.
- The conversation also reflects on the awe of space exploration.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:00)
Let’s bring in Jack. Jack, welcome to the podcast.
Jack O’Donnell (00:03)
Thanks Joanna, great to be with you from the lobby on a sunny summer day.
Joanna Pasceri (00:10)
Yes. Well, the work is never done, it seems, in politics. The GOP’s massive tax and spending bill has been signed into law now, and New Yorkers are waiting for the other shoe to drop. You write in the memo that the state is facing an estimated $13 billion in federal cuts. How can New York bounce back from that kind of financial hit?
Jack O’Donnell (00:32)
⁓ Well, that’s a good question. I don’t think anyone has answers yet. And it’s important to know that that’s what Democrats are saying. ⁓ know, there has almost never been as stark a messaging divide on a piece of legislation in ⁓ recent memory. ⁓
Democrats are saying that a ton of people are going to lose their health care. They’re going to lose Medicaid. They’re going to get kicked off what’s called the essential plan, that it’s going to devastate rural hospitals. And with it, the jobs that go into those hospitals, ⁓ know, Republicans have obviously taken a very different tact. And they’re saying the people who are going to lose coverage are people who don’t want to go to work.
you know, includes a lot of work requirements and, ⁓ you know, also big cuts to SNAP, ⁓ to food stamp, you know, food assistance for people who need it. So, you know, I don’t know the real answer here. I think maybe both things are true, but it’s gonna have a big impact, but a lot of those impacts are gonna be phased in over the next year or two.
And so we’re not going to see many of them immediately, which gives the state a chance to try to come back. But Republicans have some really valid points here. One of the big pieces about SNAP, the Supplementary Nutritional Assistance Program, ⁓ is that states that didn’t do a good job are getting penalized. And that includes New York, New York’s own numbers are that last year over 14 % of SNAP benefits were delivered to people who were ineligible. And so as a result, the state is going to have to pick up big portions of the cost of this program. You know, that’s tough to defend, I think. And so that’s where we’re going to see a big fight over the messaging wars here that’s going to go on for a year or two ⁓ as these cuts go into full effect.
Joanna Pasceri (02:50)
In the memo, we hear from Senator Liz Krueger, she’s head of the Senate Finance Committee, who paints somewhat rosier picture here, saying New York can sustain the cuts, at least this year, by dipping into its rainy day fund. Is that going to work? And do you think Governor Hokel will go along with that?
Jack O’Donnell (03:09)
Well, absolutely in the short term. She’s talking about a $750 million hit that is coming to the state in this state budget year. So that’s not even a result of the new bill. It’s result of some other changes that the federal government has made. So I do think at $3.25 billion, the legislature did give the governor
Basically up to $2 billion worth of wiggle room to dip into reserves. So ⁓ I do think that’s true in the short term. There’s still a lot of talk about them having to do something later this year. Remember, this tax and spend bill is not the federal budget. The federal budget year is October 1st and we could see significant other cuts to New York as we go through that budget cycle.
⁓ Or we could say government shutdown too. ⁓ Republicans were able to pass this bill by the skin of their teeth, but they were able to do that without having to go through the 60 vote threshold in the Senate. So a lot more to come on all of these things, but you know, I think we think New York is ⁓ safe enough this year, but those out years look really daunting.
Joanna Pasceri (04:30)
Then there’s the PR angle to this with the governor traveling across the state to let voters know the Republicans in Congress are responsible for these crippling cuts. What kind of impact do you think this will have on GOP support in New York?
Jack O’Donnell (04:44)
Well, I think it’s important. You know, again, as I mentioned, both sides have some compelling talking points here. And where the public really comes down at the end of that is going to matter, both for control of Congress in the midterms, but also for the future of both parties. you know, we’re seeing Governor Hokel go really hard into this, I think.
That’s her job first as governor and secondarily as the head of the New York State Democratic Party. It’s her job to be out there ⁓ running that campaign and trying to hold Republicans responsible for their vote. And she’s doing it.
Joanna Pasceri (05:32)
I thought another interesting point you made in the memo was how all this feistiness from Governor Hockel appears to be resonating with voters. Polls now showing her approval rating trending upward. Are you surprised?
Jack O’Donnell (05:46)
I’m not. mean, I think it reflects two things. ⁓ You know, one is I do think the messaging on this bill is getting out there and the bill is not popular. So Democrats are going to benefit from not being responsible for this bill. But the other part of it is I’ll tell you, and I think we’ve written about this in the memo in the past, I think Governor Hokel is at her best when she’s fighting.
I think people want to see her ⁓ declaring her values, taking swings, being passionate, and really putting her foot down. And it looks like that’s reflected in the polls.
Joanna Pasceri (06:29)
Turning now to the hot race for New York City mayor, Assemblyman Bandani, the Democratic Socialist nominee, had a sit down with a top business group in the city that is most worried about his policies. Can he win their support?
Jack O’Donnell (06:44)
Well, you know, first I want to just note he is a democratic socialist. He’s been very upfront about that, but he’s also officially the nominee of the Democratic Party ⁓ now. you know, look, is he going to win all of those business leaders around his point? No, absolutely not. But can he lower the temperature? Can he get enough of them to feel like there is some common ground that they don’t go all out to try to defeat him. I think absolutely. And I’ve been very impressed with the sort of charm offensive that we’ve seen from Assemblymember Mondami. He has been out there meeting with different groups. There was also some coverage of him meeting with some tech groups and talking up what a great mayor Michael Bloomberg was for the tech industry in New York. So, you know, he is really picking his spots and ⁓ looking for ways to find that common ground. ⁓ And that goes a long way. ⁓ You don’t always have to have people support. You just have to ⁓ sometimes not be their enemy.
Joanna Pasceri (08:00)
You write in the memo how Mondani supporters are now taking aim at top Democrats like House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, considering primary challenges with more progressive candidates. Is a party upheaval in the works?
Jack O’Donnell (08:15)
This has been ongoing, the Civil War for control of the Democratic Party, is really, know, the big groups in the center left. you know, I think people saw that group as being very ascendant with Eric Adams’ primary victory four years ago with Kathy Hochul’s reelection, but also folks on the far left. And you’ve seen some big victories for that group whether it was you know starting with a o c’s election to congress and i’m bernie sanders electoral success so i i think this is just an ongoing process you know most parties to succeed need to be big-tenth and ⁓ you know to the extent that leadership can and they’re not gonna stop but to the extent they can minimize that friendly fire will go a long way to determining how well Democrats do in the midterms and in the next presidential election.
Joanna Pasceri (09:21)
And it’s a year away, but the race for New York governor is already heating up with campaign finance figures coming out. You write about it in the memo, Hokel leading in fundraising, but her biggest challenger not far behind. What does this mean for the race?
Jack O’Donnell (09:36)
Well, it means this is going to be wild. do think, know, Kathy Hochul, since she took office, has been just a really impressive fundraiser, both with what she’s raised for her campaign, what she’s raised for the New York State Democratic Party. You know, she’s really built the resources that candidates and parties need to succeed. And that’s been a huge part of her success, being able to really out gone, you know, her challengers, for instance, in the last gubernatorial primary. wow, Elise Stefanik coming into this a little late, coming into this out of Washington, ⁓ she’s raised an awful lot of money too and ⁓ is turning some of that into resources for local Republican candidates and ⁓
You know, she raised an impressive amount of money. ⁓ I think ⁓ this is shaping up. Now, there still could be a Republican primary, though I suspect President Trump will anoint a candidate. You know, this is going to be a ⁓ battle royal, you know, a championship fight ⁓ out there if they can both keep raising at this speed. You know, be thankful if you’re watching TV. You have a short respite right now before you get inundated with political ads again.
Joanna Pasceri (11:12)
Here it comes. Favorite news link this week?
Jack O’Donnell (11:16)
Well, we highlighted this one too, but I really was really impressed with some of the pictures in the story about the parallel galaxy. I remember being a kid and you could, here we are yesterday was the 58th anniversary of man going to the moon. You look at those pictures and how impressive they were. then as a kid, so finally seeing you know some parts of the universe now seeing these clear as day pictures of other galaxies wow it’s pretty cool.
Joanna Pasceri (11:54)
was a very cool story. The Hubble telescope strikes again. Jack, always great insight. Thanks again.
Jack O’Donnell (12:03)
Joanna, thanks for having me.
