In this episode, Joanna Pasceri and Jack O’Donnell discuss the current political climate in New York, focusing on Governor Hochul’s reelection prospects, recent political victories, and the dynamics surrounding the House budget bill. They explore the implications of polling data, the significance of incumbency, and the challenges ahead in the Senate, while also reflecting on the broader historical context of political change in America.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- Polling is a snapshot in time, reflecting current sentiments.
- Incumbency provides advantages in fundraising and endorsements.
- Governor Hochul’s recent wins may take time to resonate with voters.
- Political victories can be double-edged swords, impacting future decisions.
- Recent special elections highlight the importance of every seat.
- Trump’s influence remains significant in GOP dynamics.
- Late-night votes can lead to unexpected outcomes, like missed votes.
- The reconciliation process is complex and requires many procedural votes.
- Senate negotiations will be challenging and lengthy.
- Historical context is crucial in understanding current political dynamics.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:01.49)
Hi everyone, and thanks for joining us from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell. We’re back with another edition of our Monday Morning Minute, the podcast version of Monday Morning Memo, our award-winning weekly newsletter. It’s when we check in with Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell and Associates for more insight into the issues making news this week. Strong political headwinds are blowing as recent polls point to growing voter discontent.
In New York state and across the country. What does this mean for incumbents and the New York governor who is up for reelection next year? Let’s bring in Jack for a deeper dive. Hi Jack, welcome to the podcast.
Jack O’Donnell (00:42.418)
Hi Joanna, great to be with you from the lobby.
Joanna Pasceri (00:46.728)
Great to talk to you today. know, Governor Hoke will fresh off several budget wins that many voters supported, but that didn’t translate into higher rankings in a recent poll. What do you think’s going on here?
Jack O’Donnell (01:00.033)
Yeah, good question. mean, I think the most important thing to remember is that polling is simply a snapshot in time. And as much as I’d like everyone in New York or at least all the voters to be reading our Monday morning memo, the reality is that a lot of this takes some time to seep in. You know, just because something happens in Albany, there’s a real lag between you know when that happens in real people’s lives when they recognize it when it becomes part of their belief system all those sorts of things and you know even a lot of the big wins of the governor had in the budget for instance the phone free schools you people really see that until the fall till schools have adopted policies and it becomes much more real for them so.
You I think some of this is just a matter of time. A lot of the polling we’ve seen shows that the things that the governor was fighting for and most of the things that she won victories on are very popular. But then it’s also seeing if she gets the credit. You know, that’s also one of these things in politics is who gets the credit and does anyone in politics or in government get the credit?
You know the polling is where it is today and and we’ll see how the government out there touting her budget wins man and we’ll see if that resonates.
Joanna Pasceri (02:35.022)
I know a lot can change, at this point, what do you think? Do you think Hocal is in a good position to be reelected next year?
Jack O’Donnell (02:42.858)
Well, absolutely. it starts with it starts with incumbency. Incumbency is a really strong, powerful thing. We talked a little in the memo this week about how that can be a double edged sword. You know, you get the credit, but you also get some of the blame for what’s going on in the state and the country. But incumbency, especially in New York, is very strong especially helps with things like fundraising, things like endorsements, getting people to support your campaign is always helpful. Everyone in New York will need to go through another budget cycle with Kathy Hochul as the governor, which makes some powerful special interests sometimes think twice about not endorsing the incumbent governor. But also if you dig deeper in the polling,
You know, while it does say that there are a lot of voters out there who might like to see a change, it also says there’s no one out there that they’re looking at. You know, the governor’s numbers in a Democratic primary are very high, and it’s still a Democratic state at the end of the day, both in terms of enrollment and in terms of voting patterns. So I like the governor’s chances. That said, there’s some threats out there and she’s got her work cut out for her.
Joanna Pasceri (04:13.392)
You write in the memo about a big victory for Hokel regarding a wind farm off the New York coast that the Trump administration had put on hold. How significant is it that she convinced Trump to let this project continue?
Jack O’Donnell (04:27.2)
Well, I think this is incredibly important and the importance goes beyond the, know, 1500 good jobs that are associated with it. goes into the fact that this is a green energy project and not always the kind that the Trump administration is eager to support. But the fact that the Governor seemingly convinced the the Trump administration to move off of something to let something go forward Bodes well for her powers of persuasion it bodes well for her ability to get resources or results out of the out of the Trump administration And that’s going to be a real key to getting things done in New York now again like a lot of other things
That could be a double-edged sword, There’s some intimation that the governor will look at some pipeline projects, look at some other more traditional energy projects, then some of those aren’t super popular with especially left-leaning New York City voters. So there may be a cost to this, but it is a huge win for the governor politically.
And also governmentally, again, a lot of jobs, a lot of energy that’s gonna flow to New York State, so well done.
Joanna Pasceri (05:53.283)
Interesting there. Also making news this week, a big victory for Democrats in a special election for a state Senate seat in Brooklyn. Why was this so important?
Jack O’Donnell (06:04.533)
Yeah, mean, I think every seat is important, right? We’ve got 63 state senate seats, but what’s particularly interesting about this seat is there was a Democrat in the seat, Simcha Felder, but Simcha Felder had caucus with Republicans when they were in power. He regularly ran on the Democratic and the Republican line.
a very conservative Democrat. You know, so this was a high hope seat for Republicans to start clawing away at the margin between the majority and the minority. It was a district with a lot of Orthodox Jewish voters, people that Republicans, that Trump, that Lee Zeldin, who ran for governor a couple years ago have made lot of inroads with. We’ve seen New York City in the presidential election shift a little more to the right and towards Republicans. So this was a nice victory for Democrats in the state Senate.
Joanna Pasceri (07:17.37)
Turning now to Washington, most everyone thought it couldn’t be done, but the House did manage to pass the GOP’s big, beautiful budget bill. Could it have happened without Trump’s arm twisting?
Jack O’Donnell (07:30.385)
Absolutely not. mean, you know, it’s impressive that the bill got done. A lot of credit goes to Speaker Mike Johnson on that. But also that it got done on time, that they had to get a vote in before the Memorial Day weekend. They had committee meetings last Sunday at 11 p.m. They had a 1 a.m. Wednesday budget meeting. You know i’m really wild timeline and but the the defining moment for this bill and and for this legislation going forward with with president from to visit to the hill where he told conservatives basically that shut up and get their hands off of of medicaid and any he told some moderate republicans to to to did get that
Fuck out of the way. so, you know, really a big deal, but a big deal because, you know, the thing that unites the far right of the Republican Party, the moderate middle of the Republican Party and everything in between is President Donald Trump. And he showed that again this week.
Joanna Pasceri (08:47.299)
The most clicked link in the memo was how New York Congressman Andrew Garbarino fell asleep and missed the vote. What do you think here? Was that intentional, a slip up?
Jack O’Donnell (08:58.346)
It’s just wild. mean, look, you know, we talked a little about the timing on this bill, you know, how people have been up late every night, all night, all nighters. Garbarino has been a real leader in pushing for an increased salt or state and local tax deduction. So he has been not just a key member in a conference that doesn’t have a lot of votes to spare.
But he’s been a lead negotiator on a big issue that almost brought this bill down. So for him to have fallen asleep during the vote, it’s not a very good look.
Joanna Pasceri (09:40.803)
Well, just to put it in context, like you said, this house budget vote did take place in the wee hours of Thursday morning. So it’s just one question that’s just burning inside of me is why are you doing this in the middle of the night and how can anyone not fall asleep?
Jack O’Donnell (09:55.53)
Well, the number one reason is that the minority, in this case the Democrats, wanted to inflict some pain. You know, they want to force Republicans to take as many votes as possible, take as many hard votes. And Speaker Johnson had set a deadline of before Memorial Day, and so that made for a really tight timeline.
We focus on one or two sort of big votes, both in the newsletter and in the broader media. But the reality is there are countless procedural votes, you know, that committee votes, subcommittee votes, that all have to happen to advance things, especially something as detailed as this, what we call the reconciliation process.
Which is a sort of weird budget loophole that allows the majority to pass something with only a simple majority rather than the two-thirds majority that most things need in the United States Senate. you know, it’s basically a prescribed process and very intricate and that’s part of it. You know, sometimes I laugh because people you know we we know that politics is not always very popular and politicians are not always very popular and and people say these folks don’t work hard you know you can make an argument that some of them don’t get a lot done but most of these folks in congress in the state legislature specially in local government putting in the time they’re putting in the hours they’re working really hard so you know these things do happen it’s just rare that it happens on such a close vote and on such a major issue.
Joanna Pasceri (11:49.015)
I’m running out of time there, I guess. Well, the House budget bill now goes to the Senate. How do you think it fares there and how long before there’s a deal that can pass?
Jack O’Donnell (11:58.758)
Well, boy, know, crystal ball time. I, you know, look, we’ve already heard from a number of senators who have said that they want to see significant changes in the bill. I think the House knew that going in. They made their own deals to get things done. The Senate’s going to have to make some similar deals and then they’re going to have to try to find some way to match those up.
You know, some senators, especially because they have six year terms and are not running, you know, in the midterms have a little more leeway, a little more space between them and the president and a little more room to operate. So, you know, this is not going to be an easy road in the Senate either. And I think it’s going to go a few months.
Joanna Pasceri (12:51.563)
Favorite news link this week?
Jack O’Donnell (12:53.8)
Well, know, along those lines, there was a really interesting Washington Post article basically talking about the last eight or so midterm elections and how they were all change elections and how they really punished incumbents and sort of what that looks like for the Republican majority.
Going into the midterm and and possible implications of passing this bill and sort of what that means for the house. So, you know, that was the the substantive article. But I’d be remiss if I didn’t also mention with Memorial Day here, there was a great article about the movie Patton, which just happens to be one I love and talked about how they evoked patriotism and how that was sort of counter perhaps to the narrative, the national narrative of 1970, kind of went against the anti-war protests and a lot of those things. But it’s important, I think, even in these especially divisive times, to remember that part of America and focus a little on those heroes who’ve brought us to this point where we get the privilege of arguing about things in peace and safety.
Joanna Pasceri (14:20.48)
Very thoughtful indeed there. Yes, check those stories out, those links and many more inside our Monday morning memo this week. Jack, thanks so much for your interesting perspective.
Jack O’Donnell (14:31.666)
Thanks for having me.
