In this episode of ‘From the Lobby,’ Jack O’Donnell discusses the current political landscape in New York, focusing on the upcoming gubernatorial election and the strategies of the Republican Party. He highlights the challenges and opportunities facing both parties, the significance of recent polling data, and the implications of legislative actions. The conversation also touches on the impact of the Trump administration’s reforms and the budgetary challenges the GOP is facing.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- Republicans are optimistic about the upcoming gubernatorial race in New York.
- Polling indicates a potential shift in voter support away from Democrats.
- Governor Hockel’s political standing is under scrutiny due to lack of support from her lieutenant governor.
- Legislative maneuvers by Democrats could hinder GOP efforts in Congress.
- The GOP faces internal divisions that complicate budget negotiations.
- Trump’s administration is rapidly changing federal programs, raising constitutional questions.
- The upcoming budget deadline poses a significant challenge for the GOP.
- Both parties have opportunities to deliver on key issues to gain voter support.
- The political landscape is fluid, with many factors influencing upcoming elections.
- Public sentiment is crucial for both parties as they navigate their strategies.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:01.859)
Hi everyone and welcome to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. We’re back with another edition of our Monday Morning Minute, the podcast version of our popular newsletter, Monday Morning Memo. It’s when we check in with Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell and Associates and author of our Monday Morning Memo for more insight into the topics written about this week. Push for a Republican governor in New York tops our memo messaging and strategy discussed recently at the New York State Conservative Party Conference in Albany for the 26th election. So let’s bring in Jack to talk more about this gathering of the party faithful. Hi Jack.
Jack O’Donnell (00:41.71)
Hi Joanna, it’s great to be with you from the lobby and just before we get into things I just wanted to introduce we have a special guest here. Could you introduce yourself?
Joanna Pasceri (00:51.747)
hello, Elsie.
Jack O’Donnell (01:00.494)
Do want to tell everyone what you like to do?
Jack O’Donnell (01:07.083)
I play with outside and with my hand inside. Yeah.
Jack O’Donnell (01:20.685)
And I also like to horseback ride with my dad. paint. And what do you want to do when you grow up? I want
I to a judge, I want to be a horse-docker rider, and I want to be a fossil-dude, a paleontologist, a paleontologist. Well that’s enough to keep you busy. All right, we’re going to talk a little, okay?
Jack O’Donnell (01:59.541)
Thanks Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri (02:00.404)
Yes, such a wide array of talents there.
Jack O’Donnell (02:03.53)
And she can do all of them and she’ll be the best ever.
Joanna Pasceri (02:07.132)
I she will. I bet she will. Thanks for joining us, Elsie. Well, now we have to talk about more boring things, unfortunately. But anyway, we had a big event over last weekend. There was a big event, New York State Conservative Party Conference in Albany. And it’s more than a year before the election for New York governor, but all they were talking about was this race. So why are they doing it now, Jeff?
Jack O’Donnell (02:31.473)
Well, number one, because it’s up, right? So even if things were hopeless, I think they’d be talking about it. But I think Republicans felt that Lee Zeldin did fairly well. He was the best performing Republican candidate, Republican and conservative candidate for governor since George Pataki last won the seat, but also because Donald Trump did very well in New York, better than any Republican in about 40 years in New York. that combined with some polling makes them think that New York is a place where maybe they could pick up a seat.
Joanna Pasceri (03:21.885)
What can you tell us about the political strategy from the right? How effective do you think it will be?
Jack O’Donnell (03:28.435)
Well, I think there are opportunities and challenges. And we see some of this in the recent polling. You know, the opportunity is that Republicans are polling high right now. I think most Americans want President Trump to succeed and they like that he is smashing some norms and taking on taking on the bureaucracy. so I think, you know, Republicans are doing well. Some of their issues, especially around crime, especially around pocketbook issues and inflation, you know, are going to attract voters these days. The hard part is that now that they’re in government, they have to deliver.
You know, Donald Trump said the price of gas and eggs is going down. It hasn’t yet. He’s got some time to do it. But you know, now they have to deliver. I also think the Republican party is just as split as the Democratic party between the center and the extremes. And I think even New York Republicans, especially those in Congress, are going to be forced to sort of walk that tightrope between what are they doing about a woman’s right to choose and abortion rights? are they willing to toe the Republican line, the conservative line, and be 100 % pro-life, anti-choice? Are they gonna go after, with Louisiana, go after doctors in New York who are prescribing women’s healthcare medicine. So, you know, a lot of challenges, but also an opportunity for them here.
Joanna Pasceri (05:23.028)
You do mention the polls and this week in our memo you break down several of them that show Governor Hockel and the Democratic Party in New York behind in voter support. What does this tell us?
Can they turn the tide?
Jack O’Donnell (05:37.094)
Again, I think a lot of this is a reaction to Election Day. It’s an opportunity for the Republicans and people are enthusiastic. Look, it remains to be seen what they can do. Donald Trump has an opportunity, Republicans in Congress have an opportunity to deliver on things that New Yorkers want. I think they would love to see the…on salt tax the state local tax deduction return i think they would love to see inflation go down i don’t think they want on new york’s highway funds to be zeroed out i don’t think they want the mt a to to be zeroed out so i i they’ve got to find a way to to deliver on some of the more popular promises without alienating folks with some of the levers they might be using to get there. That said, know, those same polls show that a lot of the things that Democrats are talking about, especially Governor Kathy Hockel is talking about, are very popular. so Democrats have an opportunity to get some of those things done and show why they’re in power and why people should support them. So I think now it’s really an opportunity for Democrats and Republicans alike to try to deliver.
Joanna Pasceri (06:34.658)
The governor also appears to have lost support from her lieutenant governor who refused to endorse her re-election. How damaging is this and how should Hocal respond?
Jack O’Donnell (07:19.01)
Well, it still needs to play out. It was sort of, certainly eyebrow raising for the LG to not offer that immediate support. Though, you know, he kind of covered it with, we’re just not at election time yet. And you could argue she hasn’t announced her reelection. You can argue on an awful lot of things. That said, it is pretty surprising.
And I do think that the governor is going to do something about it politically. What that is, I think we’re all watching to see.
Joanna Pasceri (07:57.693)
This week you also update us on a bill now introduced by the Democrats in the legislature to deny the House GOP of a key vote by delaying the special election to fill Republican Congresswoman Elise Stefanik’s seat. So where does this bill stand today and can the GOP fight back?
Jack O’Donnell (08:16.899)
And and can they fight back it they would have to go to the courts now there’s some some indication that today that there were some maybe some second thoughts going on in in albany but all indications the way this was introduced on on friday night is that it could pass today monday on the first day back there were some committee meetings set up to to to move it through.
So we’re watching that really closely. If it passes, again, the Republicans could go to court, but there’s not an awful lot, not a lot, awful lot they can do.
Joanna Pasceri (08:58.927)
Well, speaking of Congress, despite Republican control, the GOP can’t seem to push through its budget bill. What’s the holdup here and how do you think this plays out?
Jack O’Donnell (09:09.59)
Well this is i think one of the most interesting things and to watch over the next three months on republicans especially in the house and we saw this two years ago when they were in power is that there is a real dichotomy between the far right republicans who are looking for as much as a a trillion dollars in in cuts and more moderate republicans many of whom are in swing districts who don’t support those kind of cuts and who want to make sure that federal funding is flowing, whether that’s to local health care providers, whether that is to local universities and higher ed institutions. And so it is really hard with a very narrow majority to craft something that has support from both sides.
Wack O’Donnell (10:07.114)
when republicans were in power in in the house last time they needed votes from from democrats to to get that done whether ruby democrats are willing to do that right now there are some democrats rising up and say saying they shouldn’t compromise now if there’s no compromise and and republicans can’t hold that narrow narrow lane
Joanna Pasceri (10:11.553)
Jack O’Donnell (10:32.224)
We’re looking at a government funding deadline of March 14th. if less things start moving soon, we’re going to start hearing talks about a shutdown. I should also mention that in the Senate, this budget stuff, most of it we need outside of reconciliation, which is another complicated subject, we need 60 votes. And so they will need some Democrats to help move it forward, which gives Democrats some leverage. We’ll see what they do with it.
Joanna Pasceri (11:02.727)
Meantime, and you touched on this a little bit earlier, the Trump administration continues to reform federal programs at a dizzying pace. What kind of impact do you think these changes are going to have?
Jack O’Donnell (11:15.955)
Well, I might not say reform. Some of them are certainly being pulled back. And this raises all kinds of constitutional questions. A lot of these are programs that were passed, that were authorized, that were funded by Congress. And the president doesn’t necessarily have the unilateral ability to just walk them back. And so I think President Trump has done a great job of flooding the zone and really driving forward quickly. What happens to these programs? Again, a lot of them need to be authorized or reauthorized or discontinued in this whole budget process, and that’s why it matters so much.
Joanna Pasceri (12:06.69)
So what are you keeping an eye on this week for next week’s memo?
Jack O’Donnell (12:11.131)
Well, I think we’re watching very closely. The House was supposed to have some text of their resolution, their funding resolution out this week. That’s already apparently been delayed, but we’re going to be watching all that, those going on very closely.
Joanna Pasceri (12:30.172)
Do you have a favorite news link from the memo this week?
Jack O’Donnell (12:34.353)
You know, there was a lot in there, but I think you and I both really enjoyed President Trump’s comments about Prince Harry and what was going on there. So that was certainly fun to read.
Joanna Pasceri (12:49.721)
Yeah, check that out. It’s pretty interesting. Well, we look forward to another interesting Monday Morning Memo. And Jack, thank you so much for your insight. Don’t miss out if you’re not getting our Monday Morning Memo in your inbox each week. It is easy to subscribe. Just head to our website at odonnelsolutions.com. That’s odonnelsolutions.com. Thanks for joining us for this Monday Morning Minute. We’ll be back from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
