In this St. Patrick’s Day episode of Monday Morning Minute, Jack O’Donnell walks through the high-stakes negotiations in Albany as Senate and Assembly budget proposals diverge sharply from the governor’s plan. Top issues include changes to discovery laws and mental health commitments, which Governor Hochul is determined to pass, as well as inflation rebate checks and school cell phone policies. On the federal level, U.S.-Canada tariffs threaten New York’s economy, especially in upstate regions, while Democrats in Washington face internal strife over budget compromises. The episode wraps with a lighthearted look at McDonald’s in Ireland embracing the Gaelic language—proof that even fast food can make cultural history.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates.
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates.
Major Topics Covered
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- NYS Budget Proposals Diverge: The Assembly proposes a lower budget than the governor, while the Senate comes in $7B higher. Tax hikes on corporations and high earners are being debated, with the final number likely to fall in between.
- Criminal Justice and Mental Health Reforms: Governor Hochul is strongly pushing changes to discovery laws and involuntary commitment policies. While resistance exists, particularly in the Assembly, compromises are expected.
- Inflation Rebate Checks Likely: Both chambers have kept versions of the governor’s inflation relief checks, with final eligibility still under negotiation—seniors likely to benefit the most.
- School Cell Phone Ban Advances: Despite being removed from the Assembly’s version, the governor’s push for a Bell-to-Bell ban has strong support from teachers, parents, and administrators, and is likely to be included.
- Tariff Tensions and DC Division: Tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could devastate New York’s economy, especially upstate. Meanwhile, Democrats in Congress are in open conflict over passing a GOP-led continuing resolution to avoid a shutdown.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri (00:01)
Welcome back everyone. Thanks for joining us from the lobby for our Monday Morning Minute, the podcast version of Monday Morning Memo, our award-winning weekly newsletter. It’s when we check in with Jack, managing partner at O’Donnell and Associates and author of our memo for a closer look at the issues written about this week.
It is our St. Patrick’s Day edition of the memo celebrating everything Irish and featuring some very important details on the budget process in New York. One House budget proposals are out from both the Senate and Assembly and let’s bring in Jack to find out more about these. Welcome to the podcast, Jack.
Jack O’Donnell (00:42)
Hi Joanna, great great to be with you on our St. Patrick’s Day edition.
Joanna Pasceri (00:48)
Right. Well, St. Patrick’s Day in Albany means that budget talks are in high gear and the assembly has approved a one house budget with a spending total that’s less than the governor’s budget. The Senate has come in seven billion dollars higher than the governor. So where do you think the top line number ends up in all of this?
Jack O’Donnell (01:12)
think it’s somewhere in between. You know, the Senate in the assembly both proposed some additional corporate taxes and some additional. Maybe the Senate proposed some additional personal income taxes for the highest earning New Yorkers. I suspect that or I know that the governor is going to push back really hard on those.
But at the same time, I do believe that everyone is committed to funding the MTA capital plan. So my guess is somewhere in between.
Joanna Pasceri (01:51)
One of the more contentious issues in the budget process is criminal justice reforms. You talk about that in our memo this week. The governor wants to change some discovery laws that she says defense attorneys are manipulating to get their clients off. chamber are touching it. Is it DOA?
Jack O’Donnell (02:12)
You know, whole reason that governors include policy like this in their budget is because they hold the upper hand in budget negotiations. Just the way that the process plays out, but also constitutionally. So I suspect the governor is going to get some changes. Now, whether that has to be a compromise in that it gets watered down a little or maybe there’s some additional funding for defense attorneys or something else to kind of balance this out. I know law and order are very important to the governor. This issue particularly important to her and we’ve seen really strong support from the District Attorney’s Association from across the state, including Democrats and Republicans.
I think this will get done exactly the details are exactly what they’ll negotiate over over the next few weeks.
Joanna Pasceri (03:19)
You also talk about the state’s involuntary commitment laws that the governor wants to change. So it is easier to deal with mentally ill people on the streets. So do you think an agreement can be reached on this issue?
Jack O’Donnell (03:35)
Again, I think the governor holds most, if not all, the cards. And I think these two issues are ones that she has really highlighted as important, important around things like subway safety in New York, important around keeping New Yorkers safe. And I think that’s a big part of what she sees as her job. And so I suspect she’s going to put a lot behind these. And when she does, or when any governor does, they usually get some or most of what they want. Now, do I think she’ll get all of it? No, I do think that the assembly especially has some real concerns about the proposal and the way it’s especially around who can sign off on an involuntary commitment of someone or confinement of someone. So I expect that that’ll be negotiated through to something that both sides can live with.
Joanna Pasceri (04:47)
What about those inflation rebate checks? Do you think New Yorkers will get a few hundred dollars from the state this fall?
Jack O’Donnell (04:53)
Yeah, it’s interesting when you talk to legislators over the last few weeks, their biggest pushback and their biggest concern was these checks and, you know, thoughts that all of that money could be spent more effectively as a block, right, for childcare or for transportation or for affordable housing.
But that’s not really what came out of their budget negotiations within each house. The assembly kept the inflation checks in, and the Senate changed them to really just go to senior citizens over the next few years. So I am confident that this is something that’s gonna get done. Maybe the guidelines about who can get them, go down a little right now there there for people making up to maybe three hundred thousand or something like that maybe that gets caught a little and and maybe it goes higher for seniors or the guaranteed two years for seniors but i do think this gets done i do think New Yorkers will get small check.
Joanna Pasceri (06:10)
Another issue you write about in the memo, banning cell phones in schools. This initially seemed to receive strong support from the legislature, but the Senate watered it down. The assembly admitted it altogether. So who wins here?
Jack O’Donnell (06:26)
Again, this is one of the big three I see as the governor really pushing and I think she’s gonna get it done. As you said, there are lot of legislators we’ve talked to who are supportive. Parents and parents groups are very supportive. Teachers unions, school administrators are very supportive.
You know, the assembly really took it out because their broad mandate is that budget should be about dollars and cents and not about policy and that should be negotiated separately. So even though the assembly took it out, they kept in some of the spending that the governor had proposed to make sure to support school districts investing in this.
Look, I do think it’s a big change. I do think it’s very complicated. You know, some people think it should be watered down, but the studies and the experience in other places that have done this and at many New York schools that have done this, let’s be clear that there are school districts across the state, schools in New York City who have already adopted these policies and they’ve done it on their own.
you know phone free schools from bell to bell is really what works and and that’s kind of what the governor’s banking on the fact that is support from teachers administrators and parents and the governor with her heavy hand in the budget i think this gets done too.
Joanna Pasceri (08:06)
Turning now to President Trump’s tariffs against Canada. The Canadians have responded with tariffs of their own on American products. in our memo this week, we have a list of those products. With New York sharing the border with Canada, what kind of impact do you think this will have on our state?
Jack O’Donnell (08:25)
Well, gosh, I think it’s devastating to the whole state and especially upstate New York where so much of the economy from tourism to auto parts and cars that often go back and forth a couple times. This trade link is just so vital to so much of what we do in New York to our farmers, to the whole agricultural industry.
the tariffs will be devastating for New York. And I think a lot of folks are watching to see what the president does, to see what the new prime minister does and kind of how some of that goes. But we were talking about budget for a minute. I think that earlier today, the speaker of the assembly and the majority leader of the Senate both said, that there are about 98 % there on the budget. know, the one thing that really could change everything is action by the federal government and whether that’s the tariffs or some other cuts to New York. mean, those are things that could change quickly. I know the governor has brought that up in budget negotiations, being prepared for something like this, maybe not having a…a budget that doesn’t have some escape hatches or opportunities for the governor, the budget director to make some changes as necessary. It’s really frightening.
Joanna Pasceri (10:05)
issue no doubt. Speaking of Washington, thanks to the Democrats a temporary spending plan was passed. The government shutdown was averted. But this has caused a rift now among Democrats in DC. What’s the latest on this?
Jack O’Donnell (10:20)
There’s a lot of anger among Democrats, especially it starts with the House Democrats, only one of whom broke ranks to vote for this Republican CR continuing resolution. And we heard people really kind of explode with anger at Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and nine of his colleagues who voted for this. You know, I think it really is that a lot of these differences have existed in the Democratic Party between the center left and the far left between the people who want to compromise and govern and those who want to burn things down. They’ve existed for a while. They were kind of papered over by by opposition to Trump in his first term, by support for Biden or Harris after that. But, you know, the center and far left divisions, you know, some of that’s true in the Republican Party between the center right and the far right. The difference is Trump has really taken over the party and Republicans support him and or are afraid of him and afraid of crossing him.
And he has been much more organized, the whole Trump administration has been much more organized in trying to keep people in line, and it’s working. And as a result, you see these splits in the Democratic Party. I think some of that is natural when you lose power. I think some of that is very natural when you’ve lost all the levers of power, the House, the Senate, and the White House. And I think Democrats are deeply frustrated, but for now, that rift is going to continue. My understanding is that Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer are supposed to meet this week and try to patch things up. Schumer has said that it was very Hobbesian choice, right? That there were Democrats who said you shouldn’t vote for the Republican CR.,because that’s being complicit and there are other Democrats who thought that if you shut down the government you were really giving free rein to President Trump to Elon Musk and Doge to kind of do their worst.
It’s going to play out and it’s going to play out for a while. And I think we have a long way to go before Democrats start to heal. And that’s not going to happen until there are Democratic voices that are offering a new path forward.
Joanna Pasceri (13:13)
Well, ahead to next week’s memo, what will you be keeping an eye on?
Jack O’Donnell (13:18)
We’re really in the heart of the state budget season and so you know this week the three leaders, Speaker Hasty, Majority Leader Stork Cousins and Governor Hockel, we expect them to be meeting, we expect their senior staffs to be meeting and negotiating on some of these things. So this week really is when we’ll get a handle on how things stand and where we’re going from here.
Joanna Pasceri (13:47)
Favorite read this week in our news links?
Jack O’Donnell (13:50)
well being saint Patrick’s day i i have to mention uh… we we we have highlighted a uh… uh… article uh… from Ireland that shows in in in Ireland uh… McDonald’s now uh… will allow folks to order uh… in Irish in in Gaelic and uh… man what a change that’s been uh… you know uh… for almost a millennia uh… people whether that’s uh…British oppressors or Irish folks fed up and trying to assimilate. We’ve seen all kinds of efforts or even just misuse to try to destroy the Irish language and it almost died out. So to now have the Irish language front and center at something as mundane as McDonald’s, I think it’s come a long way. St. Patrick would be proud.
Joanna Pasceri (14:50)
Look at McDonald’s being so forward. Well, Jack, thanks so much for that deep dive into this week’s Monday Morning Memo. Be sure to check out this week’s edition. You can always find our memo on our website at odonnelsolutions.com. And while you are there, sign up to receive the memo in your inbox each Monday. Again, just head to our website at odonnelsolutions.com.
Jack O’Donnell (14:53)
Absolutely.
Joanna Pasceri (15:16)
Thanks for joining us for our Monday Morning Minute. We’ll be back from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
