Monday Morning Memo – June 29

In-person voting was far from problem-free. Some voters never received absentee ballots and were forced to go to the polls; some polling locations were an hour or more late to open; credible reports included voters receiving the wrong ballot for state legislative races while other voters each ballot they were entitled too, especially confusing where some voters were voting three times—in a Presidential Primary, in state legislative primaries, and in Special Elections for Congress or borough president. Election officials have 126 days to figure out how to get this right before November 3rd.

What we do know: former Vice President Joe Biden easily won the New York Democratic Presidential Primary, defeating 10 other candidates that have ended their campaigns but remained on the state’s ballot. Bronx activist and educator Jamaal Bowman declared victory over veteran Rep. Eliot Engel. He currently leads Engel 61% to 35% in the Democratic primary for the 16th Congressional District, a big win against a powerful Democrat who has served in Congress for 31 years. In NY-27, Republican Chris Jacobs declared victory over Nate McMurray in the Special Election to fill out the remainder of former GOP Rep. Chris Collins’ term, leading with 69% of the vote. Jacobs also won the GOP primary against runner-up Beth Parlato. Incumbent Members of Congress Yvette Clarke, Tom Suozzi, Nydia Velazquez seem to be comfortably ahead of their challengers while Carolyn Maloney, chair of the powerful House Oversight Committee, will have to wait for absentees although she is ahead going into that count.

On the state level, Assembly Members Mike DenDekker and Michael Miller appear to have lost to Progressive challengers while MOA Jeff Aubry and Harry Bronson have likely been re-elected. Incumbent Assembly Members Arabella Simotas and Walter Mosley’s races will be decided by absentees. See below for more observations based on this week’s machine totals.

With the number of coronavirus deaths now under 20 on a daily basis and less than 1% of New Yorkers testing positive with the virus, Governor Andrew Cuomo, along with the governors of New Jersey and Connecticut,  imposed a quarantine on travelers from other states with high coronavirus infection rates— Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, and Utah. The quarantine requires all travelers from those states to quarantine for 14 days upon arrival in any of the three states. The list of states that qualify for quarantine will be updated daily; a recent spike in cases in California could add the nation’s most populous state to the list.

How the tables have turned! Just a couple months ago when New York was the epicenter of the pandemic, Rhode Island Governor Gina Raimondo tried to impose a quarantine on incoming New York travelers and Governor Cuomo threatened legal action. Around the same time, Cuomo  dismissed a similar order  from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis as “not necessary.” Although New York is one of the only states that seems to have the disease’s spread under control, it is important to remember the roughly 25,000 deaths in three months, the highest death toll in the country.

New York City has not yet seen the predicted spikes in coronavirus cases after the recent protests and gatherings and is on track to enter Phase 3 of its reopening on July 6, which allows indoor dining at restaurants, nail salons, tanning beds, and tattoo parlors.

Central New York, the Mohawk Valley, North Country, Finger Lakes, and the Southern Tier all entered Phase 4 on Friday, what was planned to be the final stage of the reopening process, only to find out that there will be a “Phase 4.5” since certain businesses like gyms, movie theaters, casinos, and malls were not cleared for reopening. Cuomo said that his team is still studying when and how to reopen those facilities.

New York City is serious in fiscal trouble. The budget for the fiscal year 2021 is due before midnight this Wednesday, which will have to account for a potential $9 billion loss in revenue over the next two years. Over the weekend,  Democrats in the State Senate convened remotely to consider de Blasio’s $5 billion borrowing plan, ultimately deciding to hold off on giving New York City any borrowing authority, for now,  stating, “we are open to approving limited loan authorization but more work needs to be done to develop a consensus around a sound approach.” Amidst Federal inaction and with a June 30th deadline that is cause for concern: “I am trying to find another source of revenue, and there’s only two places I can get it: Washington, which isn’t acting, and Albany, which could give us the borrowing authority to help us tide over,” the Mayor said. “And I’m hoping to achieve that in the next few days.” De Blasio and the City Council are also at a stalemate  in budget negotiations over $1 billion in NYPD cuts proposed by Speaker Corey Johnson and the 22,000 municipal layoffs threatened by City Hall.

As New York State struggles with its own $13 billion deficit, the Cuomo Administration pulled back aid to local governments, as promised, delaying May and June payments to a dozen cities by 20%. The total cut, summing $74 million and hitting the largest cities outside of New York City, including $20 million to Buffalo, $19 million to Yonkers, $17.5 million to Rochester and $12 million to Syracuse. Also on hold is the 10th annual Regional Economic Development Councils for $750 million in grants and tax credits statewide. Officials from Empire State Development, which oversees the program, say the competition is under review as the state examines its budget shortfalls due to the coronavirus pandemic.

In Washington, House Democrats, responding to a national cry for police reform, passed the  George Floyd  Justice in Policing Act  by a vote of   236-181, a measure that bans federal police from using chokeholds and other dangerous restraints, as well as no-knock warrants in drug-related cases. It also lowers legal standards to pursue criminal and civil penalties for police misconduct. But  Democrats developed their bill without input from their Republican colleagues, stalling any real progress on the legislation, at least until after the next election. House Democrats are not allowing GOP amendments to the bill and insist that public pressure will force Congressional Republicans to want to revisit the issue and move forward with a bipartisan measure.

Meanwhile, Senate Republicans separately advanced their own plan for police reform, drafted by the lone GOP Black Senator Tim Scott, a proposal that steered away from outright bans, and focused instead on training for de-escalation tactics, new federal reporting requirements, and incentives for the use of police body cameras. But Democrats blocked the effort from reaching the floor for debate.

President Trump recently expressed he is “largely supportive” of sending Americans another round of stimulus checks, hoping to boost the economy and help his chances at reelection in November. But leading Congressional Republicans and some senior White House officials remain skeptical of sending more checks. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, the lead White House negotiator on recent stimulus packages, stated, “Whatever we do, it will be much more targeted, much more focused on jobs.” A fast-moving debate continues in Washington over what exactly to include in the fourth economic stimulus package set to be taken up by lawmakers after the July 4 recess.

— Jack O’Donnell