Monday Morning Memo – Feb 1

Good Morning from Washington, DC… 

The Biden Administration’s current $1.9 trillion stimulus proposal will be an early test of the “collegial” dynamic with the 117^th Congress. Regardless of the discussion on Senate Rules (more on that in a minute), Democrats are moving ahead with a rarely used and time intensive process called budget reconciliation—that allows them to bypass a potential filibuster—and pass the package with a simple majority vote. However, Biden and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer have both said in recent weeks they want to get the stimulus package through the Senate by winning Republican support, rather than circumventing their opposition. A potential bipartisan opening is a $600 billion relief package unveiled by a group of 10 Republican Senators yesterday. This “targeted” plan will not be enough for Congressional leaders who want to “go big and bold” but moderates will seize on it as a negotiating position for a bipartisan deal. Nonetheless, it is unlikely to slow the rush towards the reconciliation process.

It is important to note that not everything can be passed through budget reconciliation. Non-budgetary matters—including Progressive priorities for the Biden Administration like a civil rights expansion, climate change, and policing reform—would still be subject to the filibuster. And that is where the conversation gets more complicated…

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell have reached an agreement on how their body will operate for the next two years (but have yet to pass an official resolution on the matter). Last week, McConnell backed down from his ultimatum on the Senate Rules after two moderate Democratic Senators (Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia) voiced support for maintaining the filibuster. The move has both Sinema and Manchin open to heavy criticism from Progressives. Leaving the filibuster intact in the Senate could heavily stymie Democratic efforts on several fronts, like those mentioned above, and Progressive activists are already taking aim at moderates as a result: “We cannot let all our hard work go to waste because of this racist, outdated, and undemocratic procedure,” said activist Liz Haskell of Yuma County Indivisible, a group that helped elect Sinema in 2018. “If Senator Sinema wants to deliver for the people who pulled her across the finish line, she’s got to be a strong advocate for getting rid of the filibuster in the Senate.”

Back in New York…

All eyes were on Attorney General Tish James’ report, which found that the New York State Department of Health had underreported nursing home COVID-19 deaths by as much as 50%. The report was a damning bombshell from a Cuomo ally. As the Governor continued his COVID-19 victory lap throughout the last few months, he has maintained popularity, and more importantly, his “unlimited” Executive Powers given to him in last year’s Coronavirus Aid bill and budget process. The report is the real first challenge to the Governor’s “Emmy winning” record on the pandemic that he and his close advisors have built over the past few months. And it comes at an interesting time, as the Legislature is starting to dig into Cuomo’s Executive Budget Proposal with Joint Legislative Budget Hearings running through February 25^th. Whether or not the report will embolden State Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins and Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie to flex their muscle at the table in the coming weeks remains to be seen.

On the Budget front, the Legislature held Joint Legislative Budget Hearings on Environmental Conservation, Transportation, and Education last week. The fiscal Committees—Assembly Ways & Means and Senate Finance—also released their respective analyses of Governor Cuomo’s Executive Budget Proposal. Read the Senate’s Blue Book here and the Assembly’s Yellow Book here. Outside of the Budget Process, the Legislative Bill Drafting Commission continued to churn out bills last week—bringing totals in the Senate to 3,600 and the Assembly to almost 4,000. They continued to work on introductions over the weekend. The Legislature returns this week Monday through Wednesday with packed committee agendas (Read: Assembly/Senate) and floor calendars (Read: Assembly/Senate). And on the Budget front, the Joint Legislative Budget Committee will host four hearings this week on Higher Education, Workforce and Mental Hygiene.

Up next in the State Budget process are Joint Legislative Budget hearings, which kick off tomorrow and will run through February 23rd. The full schedule can be found here.  The yellow book, the Assembly’s review of the Executive Budget, is also expected later today. This analysis will offer clues to how much—and what specifically—the Assembly plans to challenge in the budget.

— Jack O’Donnell