The US presidential election is 14 days away, with Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in a tight race, particularly in battleground states. Jack O’Donnell, a Democratic strategist, believes Harris’ campaign is targeting moderate Republicans and emphasizing her agenda for change, including home ownership and small business support. Michael Crocker, a Republican chairman, argues that Trump’s message on border security, inflation, and crime is resonating with voters. Both agree on the deep polarization in the US but hope for a fair and clear election outcome. Concerns were raised about the potential for election unrest and the impact of Supreme Court decisions on political norms.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- David Common: Host of Metro Morning & Senior Correspondent
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates
- Michael Croker: Republican chairman in Erie County Buffalo
Major Topics Covered
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- Perception of U.S. Presidential Campaigns in Canada: Jack examines how Canadians view the closely contested U.S. presidential race, highlighting the differences in political culture and media coverage between the two countries.
- Potential Impact on U.S.-Canada Relations: He discusses the possible implications of the election outcome on bilateral relations, including trade agreements, environmental policies, and defense collaborations.
- Economic Considerations: Jack analyzes how the election results could affect economic ties, focusing on key industries such as automotive, agriculture, and technology that are integral to both economies.
- Public Opinion and Polling Data: He delves into the latest polling data, comparing it to previous elections, and discusses the reliability of polls in predicting election outcomes.
- Media Influence on Public Perception: Jack explores the role of media in shaping public opinion during the election, considering both traditional news outlets and the impact of social media platforms.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
David Common 00:00
14 days today until the US election. Early voting has already started, and it is still neck and neck between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, particularly in those battleground states, that will ultimately turn the tide we have reached in the United States. Jack O’Donnell, Democratic strategist and managing partner at O’Donnell and Associates, as well as Michael Crocker, who is Republican chairman, the Republican chairman in Erie County, Buffalo gentlemen, good morning to both of you. Good to be with you. Glad to have you here, Jack. I want to start with you. We saw Kamala Harris yesterday spending time with anti-Trump Republican Liz Cheney in Michigan. This is one of those battleground states. What do you think the intent is of the campaign trying to try to position Harris with Cheney?
Jack O’Donnell 00:50
I think the Kamala Harris campaign has been very focused on different segments of the election, so hitting moderate Republicans, especially moderate republican women in those blue wall states. It’s a smart strategy, and I think it will pay off.
David Common 01:06
Jack. If Harris does win, she could be faced with a Democratic majority in the House, but not in the Senate. What would it mean for her ability to actually govern as President?
Jack O’Donnell 01:18
Well, I’m not ready to write off a Democratic Senate. Yet, even though the prospects don’t look great, look, the Senate has a huge say over whether presidents are successful, especially in the first two years. They confirm Cabinet nominees, they confirm judges, right? We could have as many as two or three Supreme Court vacancies over the next couple of years. So I think it’ll go a long way towards deciding if we have grid rock gridlock, or if folks are willing to meet in the middle and actually get something done.
David Common 01:50
And Michael, let me ask you, and then I’ll ask Jack as well, where do you assess the races now, particularly in those seven key battleground states that will ultimately decide this thing?
Michael Crocker 02:00
I think this race is, in many respects, the closest presidential race we’ve seen at this stage of the cycle. The polls are neck and neck and all those swing states and the two candidates are competing for a very small percentage of undecided voters, and I think the result on election day is going to be a reflection of which campaign does a better job in the close flipping those undecided voters and getting their bases out to vote on Election Day. And I believe Donald Trump’s got the effective message to that undecided voter class that’s going to allow him to be successful ultimately, on election day.
David Common 02:35
What do you think that message is?
Michael Crocker 02:38
I think this election, from the start, has been about the border, it’s been about inflation and it’s been about crime and on all three of those issues, poll after poll shows that voters side with Donald Trump on those topics. He’s got a clear and effective message and a record to back that up, in contrast with Kamala Harris, who’s part of the Biden-Harris administration, that is in many ways exacerbated those challenges for Americans. So I believe Donald Trump’s got a very clear message, and if he stays on that message over the next 14 days, he’ll be successful.
David Common 03:08
Jack. Let me go to you with what you think Harris’s counter-message is and where she stands in these battleground states.
Jack O’Donnell 03:16
I think one of the things that the Harris campaign is done well is setting her out as the change candidate. We had four years of Donald Trump and then 44 years of Joe Biden, but Harris is really setting out an agenda for what she’s going to do looking forward. That includes home home ownership. It includes a small business agenda. Includes an agenda for African American men. I think that’s really compelling. And I think the Harris campaign has done a really good job of focusing right, not just a scatter shop message across the top, but identifying key segments of the population. And I think that’s going to help her. I think we see with the just the overwhelming turnout already for early voting in Georgia, record numbers in North Carolina yesterday for early voting. Now, we see some more Republicans voting than we’ve seen in the past, but we’re seeing a lot of what we call low-propensity Democratic voters in higher numbers than we’ve ever seen in early voting, and that’s a really good sign for her and for Democratic turnout.
David Common 04:24
You know, I have a question that I would ask both of you, and that is, as we as Canadians stare south of the border at what is our most important trading partner and so deeply influences our lives, we sometimes see what seems like a political mess, such deep polarization on the national level. And yet, you two guys who are on different ends of the political spectrum, you actually know each other, and you can get no conversation with one another. Are we just wrong? Are you guys different Jack? Let me start with you.
Jack O’Donnell 04:52
It is a mess. I think that that the American electorate is as polarized. Eyes. It’s not just the divisions between the number of Democrats the number of Republicans, and you know that being, you know, split down the middle, it’s that people take this, not just personally, but but get very excited, sometimes violent, about their side. And that’s true, true on both sides. But I think within all of this, there are professionals who care not just about the campaign and the candidates, but care about the country, care about the political system, and really want it to work.
David Common 05:32
Michael, your thoughts.
Michael Crocker 05:34
Yeah, I agree with Jack in many respects, and we Jack and I do respect one another. We’ve known each other a long time, but no doubt these are serious issues. We are talking about issues like border security, talking about cost of living, and people have obviously passionate feelings about that. I think both sides of the spectrum have talked about toning down the rhetoric where appropriate, certainly after the violent attack that took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. I think that was a wake up call for staging these elections is life or death outcomes, which I think is certainly what fans some of that angst in the in the political scene down here. But I believe that there’s optimism. I think hopefully whatever the outcome of this election is, we can come together and and do what’s in the best interest of our country and certainly to our neighbors in the north. I know that’s important for you all as our close trading partners and dear friends.
David Common 06:33
Jack, I know you got to go here in a minute, but just before you go, I wonder if I could just briefly ask you what you what you think might happen if there is not a clear indication of a winner after Election Day?
Jack O’Donnell 06:48
Well, I think that’s the nightmare scenario for a lot of a lot of us. I think we all want a clean, a fair election and a clear result. I think unfortunately, with the hurricane damage in North Carolina, Georgia and parts of Florida, it’s going to be hard for people to vote there. I think there’s a lot at stake here. Now my hope is, just to your earlier question, that there are enough adults or mature people in the room who will focus on the facts and not what happens on Facebook and Twitter, and really focus on on how we move forward. I also think things will be different because you have the Biden administration in charge, and I think they’re they’re really focused on election security.
David Common 07:42
Jack, we’ll let you go. Thank you very much. Jack O’Donnell, who’s a Democratic strategist and managing partner at O’Donnell in associates, he actually has another interview that he’s going to race off to, but we’re lucky to still have Michael with us. And Michael, I put that same question to you, is, you know, there is a concern, particularly with your candidate, with Donald Trump, that if it’s an unclear election, or even if it’s a very close election result that goes KamalaHarris, there is a concern that he would not accept that result. How do you see that playing out?
Michael Crocker 08:11
Well, first, I think that the Trump campaign is prepared for a tight election they have invested in, I would argue, the most sophisticated and robust ballot integrity operation in partnership with the Republican National Committee, so they are prepared for a tight election, and they’re prepared to make sure that this election result is counted securely. But I think we have to look beyond the election at what the candidates are talking about, including things that I’ve heard some of the Democrats suggest, if they were successful, that would erode some norms here in the United States, that includes things like trying to pack the Supreme Court, eliminating the filibuster in the United States Senate, getting rid of the Electoral College, things that are fundamental protections to avoid extremism in our in our government that the Democrats are willing to throw out. Should Donald Trump or they get the presidency, but not get the House and the Senate say. So I think we it’s beyond just the outcome of the election. We’ve got to look at what the potential Harris administration would do without United Government to really change the political spectrum here in New York.
David Common 09:20
Now look, I know, I know, I know Jack’s no longer on the line with us, but if I just pick one of the things you’re talking about, the Supreme Court, indeed, there have been candidates who’ve suggested adding additional justices to balance a court that, frankly, is widely seen to have tilted the scales in favor of Donald Trump with recent decisions, many of the Democrats, if Jack was still on the line, he may well argue it has been packed, but not in the Democrats favor. It’s packed in Trump’s favor right now. How do you respond to that?
Michael Crocker 09:51
Well, it was these judges were replaced in a way that’s consistent with our United States Constitution. So you may not like. The bend of these judges, but they were confirmed by the United States Senate and appointed by the president who was in office at the time of the vacancy, simply saying, We don’t like that. Now we’re going to do the opposite, and add judges to make sure we can now get a bend to our favor, I think, sets a dangerous snowball in motion that could get out of control, where every president will be put in a situation where they want to pack the Supreme Court so that they can take it over that injects a certain part of partisan politic into our judiciary that it was designed not to have the lifetime appointments were designed to secure the judges from the political scrutiny, and that’s, I think, an important process. We may have conservatives on the bench right now. That won’t be the case forever. The court has a tendency to sort of go back and forth, and I don’t disagree that it’s a conservative court now, but that doesn’t mean it will always be so.
David Common 10:55
Donald Trump can be a very divisive figure, and yet there is one statement that is probably accepted by people on various sides of the divide, and that is that the United States has perhaps never seen a leader like Donald Trump. And you can interpret that as you might What do you think his appeal is to the at least 43% of people who are telling pollsters they will vote for him?
Michael Crocker 11:20
I think a lot of it is what’s sort of always been this forgotten voter that he’s really spoken to. There are a number of folks in this country who feel like the elites in Washington are no longer listened to them, and that Donald Trump has tapped into the issues that they really care about, that he’s identified, sort of their frustration, their displeasure with the way Washington works on both sides of the aisle. Donald Trump has not been shy about attacking Republicans that he believes are part of the Washington establishment, just as the same as Democrats. And I think ultimately, that’s what a lot of voters, particularly in these swing states. You talk about, the Midwestern voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, who feel like they’re in flyover country, that their politicians in Washington, DC don’t listen to them, and Donald Trump finally gave them a voice, and I think that’s why they respond so strongly to him.
David Common 12:11
14 days from now is the vote. 15 days from now, Michael will all reassess where we’re at. Thank you very much. Thanks for having me. That is Michael Crocker, who is Republican chairman in Erie County Buffalo, just across the water from us here in the Greater Toronto Area.
