New York’s 2026 primary night reshaped the political map from Brooklyn to Buffalo to the North Country, delivering a wave of progressive victories, stunning incumbent losses, and a Trump-backed Republican upset that signals deep voter frustration with establishment politics on both sides of the aisle. On this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack what Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s political muscle really means, why sitting legislators suddenly look vulnerable, and how Anthony Constantino’s win over a Conservative Party-backed candidate redefines GOP politics upstate. From the Erie County rejection of Democratic Chair Jeremy Zellner to the growing Democratic Socialist caucus in Albany, O’Donnell explains why authenticity — not endorsements — is driving the new electorate.
Joanna Pasceri
The ballots have been counted, the winners are celebrating, and New York politics is taking on a different look today. Hi everybody and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. This year’s primary elections delivered a little bit of everything — a battle between the Democratic establishment and progressive challengers, and a Trump-backed Republican who scored a major victory in the North Country. So what were voters really saying, and what do these results tell us about where New York politics is headed next? Joining us as always is Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. He’s been following these races from Buffalo to Brooklyn and watching how they fit into the bigger political picture. Jack, thanks for joining us from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Hi Joanna. Another exciting week. We certainly live in interesting times.
Joanna Pasceri
Yes, a really exciting primary night. Let’s start with the biggest takeaway. The progressive wing of the Democratic Party had a good night. Several high-profile candidates won, and many of them had one thing in common — support from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. How much of this is about Mamdani or the candidates themselves?
Jack O’Donnell
What a good question. And I think that’s one thing people are asking themselves, not just in New York, but across the country. I don’t want to take anything away from Zohran Mamdani. He is clearly a generational talent and he has dominated the conversation locally and nationally, and he’s a big deal and will continue to be. But I think more than his endorsement, this really just shows where Democratic primary voters are. It shows where the energy is in the Democratic Party, and that most certainly is not in the establishment wing. There are times when people turn to those safe hands and want experience and want someone who can say, “I voted for this measure to reverse the other vote that procedurally advanced something I care about.” That’s not where folks are today. They want somebody who’s showing up and fighting. They want people who are offering authentic opinions and offering up who they are versus poll-tested platitudes. And I think that’s the commonality between all of these candidates — that, and they are further to the left. The folks who are showing up in Democratic primaries are further to the left. We saw some of this during the first Trump administration as well, where energized Democrats in New York City — throughout the IDC, members of the state legislature — we saw a lot of that movement, and I think we’re seeing it again today.
Joanna Pasceri
As you said, pretty shaky night for incumbents. Two congressmen from downstate, a five-term incumbent defeated in the state legislature, a sitting senator in Queens lost her seat, and a longtime assemblyman from Syracuse looks like he may go down as well. Is there a larger message here for these incumbents?
Jack O’Donnell
I think there is. Again, that energy is — do something. It’s not something that you can just do in the last three weeks before an election. You need to be consistent in engaging with your constituents, and again, not from on high — not from paid political mailers that say, “Hey, this is what I did on the floor of the Senate.” You’ve got to be in the fight, you’ve got to be at the rally. A lot of times I think they’re looking for folks to lead that movement and be constantly there. Sometimes when you’re in office for a little while, that distance creeps in and you can get lost in these fights. We’ve talked at length about the budget being 57, 58 days late. That’s a lot of times sitting in Albany committee rooms talking about legislative vehicles versus being on the streets talking about Democratic priorities and affordability and showing the true you and your authenticity.
Joanna Pasceri
The progressive candidates’ growing influence in congressional and state races has a very strong base of younger, very energized voters, as you talked about, who support the big promises these candidates make about affordability and quality of life for the average New Yorker. But can the progressive candidates really make good on these big promises?
Jack O’Donnell
They have a ways to go to do that. The other commonality in all of these progressive and Democratic Socialist wins is that they are really safe Democratic seats. So a couple new members of the Democratic conference in Washington — you only get a majority when you’re winning swing seats in Michigan and Missouri and even winning some seats in Republican areas in Tennessee and New Mexico. So I don’t think that’s going to change as much. At the same time, we’re seeing a growing caucus of Democratic Socialists in Albany, and I do think they’re going to have increasing influence and impact on the legislation that gets approved by the Assembly and the Senate. Now, it’s not quite the numbers yet to do the New York Health Act, which would be a New York state-run healthcare program for all New Yorkers. I think they have a ways to go for that kind of change. But as they grow, they definitely shift the needle from the center left a little further out.
Joanna Pasceri
Meantime, Republicans had their own headline. In the North Country, Anthony Constantino, backed by President Trump, won the primary for the seat currently held by Elise Stefanik, even though the Conservative Party backed a different candidate. What does this say about Trump’s influence in New York?
Jack O’Donnell
Trump’s influence with Republican primary voters is unmatched. It is powerful. It is not quite unanimous, but man, awfully close. But I also think this race shows the same thing — the same anger, the same populism, the same demands for authenticity from the Republican primary voters as the Socialist wins do about Democrats. This is folks in the North Country rising up and saying, “We don’t want the establishment.” Even though Assemblymember Smullen is a good guy, well respected — he had every local elected basically endorse him throughout that district — and the primary voter said, “No, we want the loud, brash unpredictability of Anthony Constantino.” So I think that anger exists. It is lively and it is winning on the left and the right. The most interesting part to me — we didn’t see any of this on primary day, but this will be what we’re talking about for the next few months — is what does that mean in actual swing districts? That’s not what we saw. Whether it’s Mike Lawler, the Republican Congressman in New York 17, or Kate Connelly, the Democrat who won the nomination to run against him, we’re not seeing them go to either wing. We’re seeing them aggressively court that middle. And it’ll be interesting to see which of those messages can hold the middle.
Joanna Pasceri
In Western New York, Assemblyman John Rivera defeated Senator Jeremy Zellner in one of the most closely watched races of the night. Zellner is the Erie County Democratic Chair. Was this a rejection of party insiders?
Jack O’Donnell
Absolutely, I think it was a rejection of the establishment, just like in those New York City races. I don’t think people respect the insiders and the establishment right now. Further, I think it was a reflection of the anger. When this seat opened up, Jeremy Zellner looked far and wide and decided he was the best person to fill the seat. That kind of self-dealing — we’re seeing it overflowing out of Washington and the White House right now. And I think a lot of folks, Democrats certainly, but even a lot of Republicans, are fed up with that. But it would also be unfair to shortchange John Rivera, the Assemblyman who won that race. He is well liked, and I think has a lot of that authenticity. A great example of this is — Zellner was probably pointing to things in the budget that protected immigrants that haven’t fully taken effect yet to say he was a fighter, while John Rivera was standing on a street corner with activists chanting in front of the ICE headquarters and saying, “We need to stop you now.” I think those activists look and see someone who looks like them standing with them, versus someone with paid communications saying he promises to fight. And that matters. The other really big factor in this race was organized labor. They were huge and almost unanimous in their support of John Rivera, and you saw that in the results on Tuesday.
Joanna Pasceri
So when you step back and look at everything that happened on primary day, from New York City to Buffalo to the North Country, what kind of impact do you think this is going to have on the general in November?
Jack O’Donnell
That’s the most interesting part — so many of these seats don’t have a Republican opponent. They are very, very safe seats. So kind of where this goes, we still have a ways to see. But I do think that Democratic energy, that turnout, is very real. It definitely is part of the reason that we’re giving Democrats an edge in terms of winning the House of Representatives and even a shot at winning the United States Senate. So that Democratic energy right now looks like it’s very helpful, but with the volatility of the electorate, the volatility of the world, the volatility of the president, we got a long, long way to go till November.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, Jack, we are looking forward to your breakdown and your insight on all of these races coming up in our next Monday Morning Memo.
Jack O’Donnell
Thanks for having me, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
The campaigns may be over, but the political consequences are just beginning. We’ll be watching what happens next as attention shifts from the primary to November. For more analysis on the races, the results, and the trends shaping New York politics, be sure to subscribe to Jack’s Monday Morning Memo. Each week, Jack and the team break down what happened, why it matters, and what to watch next. You can sign up anytime on our website at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
