With Election Day weeks away, From the Lobby host Joanna Pasceri sat down with O’Donnell & Associates Managing Director Jack O’Donnell to unpack a New York political landscape shifting fast. The conversation ranged from Governor Kathy Hochul’s $1 billion in utility rebate checks — arriving in mailboxes just as her reelection campaign heats up — to Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman’s steep climb against a 2-to-1 Democratic registration edge. O’Donnell also weighed in on a New York Times/Siena poll showing voters souring on democratic socialism, an early House exit that stalled a Pete Hegseth impeachment resolution from Rep. Thomas Massie, and mounting signs that Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is positioning for a 2028 presidential run.
Joanna Pasceri
November is getting closer and the political stakes are getting higher. Hi, everybody, and welcome to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. The campaign rhetoric is heating up, including this latest question that’s drawing a lot of attention here in New York. Is Governor Hochul’s $1 billion in energy rebate checks about helping New Yorkers or helping her campaign? We’ll also talk about her Republican opponent’s uphill battle, the House, the debate over socialism, and the latest lawmaker reportedly eyeing a run for the White House. Joining us as always is Jack O’Donnell, political insider and managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, one of New York’s leading government affairs firms. Jack, thanks for joining us from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great to be with you again.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s get into it. Governor Hochul’s $1 billion in energy rebate checks are being sent out just weeks before voters head to the polls. Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman is questioning the timing and so are many others. So, Jack, what do you make of it? Is this policy, politics or both?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, the next thing you know, he’s gonna find out that there’s gambling at Rick’s American Cafe in Casablanca, right? I mean, it is policy and elected officials are gonna use policy to their advantage. You know, it’s a time honored tradition here. And I don’t think he would do anything differently if he were governor.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, Blakeman is trying to become New York’s first Republican governor in 20 years, but the political math is tough. Democrats outnumber Republicans more than 2 to 1 in this state, as you always tell us. Can Blakeman turn this pretty heavy tide?
Jack O’Donnell
Sure, anything’s possible, right? And that’s what makes Election Day so much fun. But, you know, he’s got a real uphill battle. For every Republican, there are two Democrats, but for every Republican Independent, you’ve got one Democrat, right? And that’s what makes it hard, especially in this environment. And you know, the same thing that cleared his path for primary, which was having Donald Trump’s endorsement, is a real anchor right now all over the country. We’re seeing from some of the latest polling, but especially here in New York. And so it’s just going to be really tough for him to be able to overcome that.
Joanna Pasceri
Now to an interesting takeaway. In the latest New York Times/Siena poll, 51% of likely voters view democratic socialism unfavorably, with 31% viewing it favorably. This comes as Democratic socialists have been scoring a series of high profile primary victories. So what does it mean for these progressive candidates come November?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, November’s the real test, right? One of the other things we’re seeing in those polls, you know, the United States Senate map might be expanding in places people didn’t know of and shrinking in others, right? There’s a lot about, you know, serious Republicans saying that Georgia and North Carolina are slipping out of reach, which is big for the Democrats. But at the same time, New Hampshire and notably Michigan are real target opportunities for Republicans. Michigan really is the center of this question, right? Can a Democratic socialist, can a progressive win a statewide swing community? And I don’t know, the polling right now has the Democrat up by two, two and a half points. But in a place where the Democratic candidate for governor is up by double digits, right, is leading by another 10, 12, 14 points. And so that’s what we’ll see. And that’s where these battle lines are really being drawn going into November. Look, Republicans are unpopular, the president is unpopular. People are upset about the cost of gas, the cost of groceries, Iran, everything else. But that doesn’t mean they love Democrats either, right? And, you know, they’re frustrated with Democrats and they’re especially frustrated with Democrats the further out you get on the political spectrum. So it is essential if Democrats are going to win that they seize that center. And how do the Democratic socialists do that? Well, we’re going to watch Michigan and find out if it’s possible.
Joanna Pasceri
As you said, there is some good news for Democrats coming into the midterms. This same poll shows 51% of voters in the US plan to vote for a Democrat, with 43% choosing a Republican on a generic congressional ballot. So is this a sign that we could really see Democrats regain control of the House in the midterms?
Jack O’Donnell
It’s definitely trending that way, right? I’ve seen some other stats that there is not a single House Democrat who’s running for reelection who is behind in his or her race right now. That’s wild. They have one member tied. You know, Democrats definitely like their chances. Having an eight point lead, a nine point lead on the generic ballot is, you know, something we haven’t seen since 2018, I guess, when Democrats won big and there was a real Democratic wave. Now, the difference is the polarization we’ve seen since then, the gerrymandering we’ve seen since then, you know, mean there are only about 25 seats that are the middle of this battleground. Right. Some people say that they’re creeping into making other races credible or possible. But right now, even that is enough to put Democrats in the majority, but it’ll be a small majority. So we’re going to talk about that in this week’s Monday Morning Memo — how Democrats try to keep people in line. So we’ll see.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, speaking of the House, lawmakers took an early exit this week, leaving behind a resolution from Republican Congressman Thomas Massie calling for the impeachment of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. Do you think the votes were there to move that issue forward?
Jack O’Donnell
Ooh, you know, it was something that the Republicans would have had to whip, but really hard, right? I mean, we’re seeing cracks in the Republican coalition, members of Congress running for reelection and criticizing President Trump, criticizing the war, criticizing how they’re handling government. So I wouldn’t be surprised if the votes were there. Like I just said, we’re previewing some of the challenges Democrats have. Well, they’re exactly on display with Republicans right now. Both parties are going to have that when you have a small and narrow coalition.
Joanna Pasceri
Finally, let’s look ahead a little bit. This week some hints that AOC will be part of the 2028 conversation, with the Democratic Socialists of America reportedly close to endorsing her for president. What do you think? Does she run? How viable is her candidacy?
Jack O’Donnell
Look, I think she is a strong contender here, right? Certainly on the Democratic side and for the nomination. And, you know, really smart and very successful in a lot of her primary endorsements this year. She narrowed the amount of races she got involved in and really picked some winners. You know, she is popular among Democrats. She’s a generational talent, right? We’ve watched her here in New York. We’ve watched her handle that national megaphone that she has. And so, you know, I have no doubt that when we are in the middle of the Democratic fight for the nomination for president, there will be one of those last two or three leading candidates who represents the left — a DSA member or DSA adjacent. One of them will be there. And seeing the DSA national board, you know, make some rules changes so they can control the endorsement rather than leaving it to delegates, you know, means that helps their old friends and helps her old friends. So, you know, I think she’s a real contender for that. A lot of focus again on Michigan, where she played a big role in that primary — a win there or a loss there will have real ramifications for those ambitions. I was also really struck in this Times poll, right, she has overall very good numbers but has plenty of people who don’t like her. I was really struck by one of the people with the best numbers across the country, and there was Zohran Mamdani, who had a net positive endorsement, at least from Democrats across the country and lower negatives. So it was sort of interesting to parse this week. And like you said, we’ll be watching. Thanks, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
Thanks, Jack. We’ll keep following the politics and the policies happening from Albany to Washington, D.C. Interested in hearing Jack’s take every week? Subscribe to this podcast and be sure to sign up for Jack’s Monday Morning Memo, our weekly no-paywall look at the stories making headlines and what they mean for you. Just head to odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
