New York’s political landscape is full of contradictions this week, and on the latest episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, Managing Partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to make sense of them. A new Marist poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul posting record-high job approval — even as a third of New Yorkers say they may leave the state over cost of living. Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand are slipping in the same poll, with Schumer hitting career-low numbers heading toward 2028. In Albany, more than a thousand activists rallied to tax the wealthy as the state reports thousands of new millionaires. And in Washington, President Trump delivered the longest State of the Union in history at one hour and 47 minutes. O’Donnell unpacks what’s real, what’s noise, and what to watch next.
Joanna Pasceri
Trump’s State of the Union, the results of a bombshell poll, and will tax pressure in Albany actually lead to change? Hi, everyone. Welcome. As we go from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell, the managing partner at O’Donnell & Associates is in the rooms and knows the players, and he keeps a close eye on the moves that shape budgets, policies, and political power. Let’s check in with him. Jack, great to have you from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to be back with you, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
We’re going to start out this week with the new Marist poll that dropped this morning. Governor Hochul is posting record high job approval numbers. At the same time, though, a strong majority of New Yorkers say the cost of living in the state is too high, and 33% say they plan to leave the state in the next five years. So what do we make of this?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, good question. First and foremost, let’s talk about the governor’s numbers. They’ve been steadily improving. And I think some of that is that she’s taken hold. People become comfortable with her. I also think some of that is around her agenda and kind of where it is. But I also think some of this is a reaction to President Trump. And while the president’s numbers are down, her numbers are going to be up. I think we’ve seen that in the past. I think you’re seeing some of that in other states, too. But I also don’t want to take away from the hard work she’s been doing and picking issues that I think New Yorkers care about, which is a great lead into the next part of that — that the cost of living is too damn high. We’ve heard that before. Was it 15 years ago? The rent’s too damn high. New York’s always been expensive, and these are tough times. We saw the cost of living and inflation really sink Joe Biden, and it’s still weighing on folks, and I think you really see that weighing on the president, too.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, that same poll shows slipping approval ratings for Senators Chuck Schumer and Kirsten Gillibrand. Schumer’s numbers, the lowest of his career. What’s behind this drop? And are we looking at change when Schumer’s seat is up again in 2028?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I always think it’s a mistake for anyone to ever count Chuck Schumer out of anything. He was at 3% in the Democratic primary polls when I worked for him and went on to win. But look, some of this is just a reflection of time. He has been there a while, and as people are fed up with things, long-term incumbents get associated with that. But I also think it’s a reflection of him doing his job as Senate Minority Leader and how that plays. He’s got to stand up for his conference. Sometimes that means making tough decisions, sometimes that means being the bad guy in other situations. I expect his approval rating within the Senate Democratic conference is very high. But I also think he’s focused on Washington. He’s appearing in these fights with President Trump and against President Trump, and then sometimes being the one to lead the compromise to solve those problems. And that real hard part of governing is never very popular on the outside. You don’t actually want to see the sausage being made. So I think he’s paying a political price for that. I also think we’re reaching a time where he hasn’t run in a while. As much as he makes time to go around the state and continues to be in all 62 counties, continues to be talking about really important issues and what he’s fighting for in Washington, he hasn’t really engaged in reminding people what he’s done for the past 25 years now. And I think if he does that, those numbers go up. I also don’t know who could beat him. So my money’s still on a reelection for Senator Chuck Schumer next year, if that’s what he wants.
Joanna Pasceri
Back to Albany now. Pressure is on to raise taxes on New York’s wealthiest. More than a thousand people rallied at the Capitol. And now the State Tax Department reports thousands of new millionaires. Does this now strengthen the case for higher taxes?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, the advocates certainly think it does, right — with folks whether they moved here or just grew their incomes. And I think that’s what New York is all about, is that mobility. The rally was loud. It was definitely in your face. It was in the press. I was there trying to navigate the Capitol with our own clients. I was very impressed that the tax-the-rich advocates had hats that had their slogan on it. There were folks listening that said it wasn’t overwhelming. For the most part, the legislators who were there are the folks who are members of DSA or the Democratic Socialists. You didn’t see an overwhelming group of assembly members or senators out there standing with them. I think that’s an important sign. I also say that a thousand people is impressive in some ways, but we’ve seen organized labor have over 10,000 people there earlier this year. So they’re being heard. It definitely is an important issue. But we’ve heard from the governor very, very clearly that she has no intention of raising taxes. We’ve heard a lot from both legislative leaders who seem very lukewarm on the idea. So again, we’ll be talking about it for the next month, but it’s not something I see happening this year.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s turn now to Washington. President Trump delivering the longest State of the Union address in history — 1 hour and 47 minutes. What stood out to you?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, the length was number one, really stood out to me. Look, I think President Trump is a terrific showman, right? Having the Olympic hockey team come out, announcing the Medal of Honor for the goalie. There was some great showmanship here. It’s often very impressive. I also really was struck by the framing, if you will. Clearly the president is aware of his polling numbers, clearly Republicans across the country are aware of his polling numbers as we inch towards this year’s midterm elections. And so there was a strong effort there to kind of reframe these things and reframe them around immigration and who you stand for. Are they citizens, are they legal immigrants, or are they not? The president used that issue incredibly effectively in his election. Republicans won across the board, and I think that was a big factor and a big reason why. So my takeaway here with his if you’re with me, stand up, and if not, sit down and you’re against me — he’s going to try to reframe that. The other thing that stuck out to me, and I’m sure the president and his people would hate this, but some of his rhetoric around the economy sounded an awful lot like some of the Biden administration’s rhetoric around the economy. The president is insisting that the economy is strong and that costs are going to come down and that he’s done all of these things, when, as you just talked about in today’s Marist poll, Americans don’t feel that way. They don’t feel it because every time they check out or every time they pay a bill, pay their credit card bill or their rent or their electric bill, that’s what they feel — and not this economic indicators model that President Trump was talking about or that President Biden did. So look, I think in some ways it will be effective in reaching his base. But I don’t think the president did a lot to gain new supporters for himself or the party. And he certainly didn’t go far enough in terms of feeling Americans’ pain about the economy.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, we look forward to reading more about it in the Monday Morning Memo. Jack, always appreciate the insight. Thanks for joining us from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to talk to you, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
If you want to stay ahead of what’s happening — the budgets, the policy fights, the elections — make sure you’re following along with Jack’s Monday Morning Memo. The newsletter gets you up to speed each week. Get it sent right to your inbox. Sign up is easy. Just head to our website at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll be back soon from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
