With fewer than 100 days until the midterms, the political roadshow is in full swing across New York. On this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri and O’Donnell & Associates Managing Partner Jack O’Donnell unpack Governor Kathy Hochul’s statewide tour defending her one-year pause on data center projects, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ Buffalo and Rochester swing hammering federal health care cuts, and Senate Democrats’ bid to reclaim a veto-proof supermajority. They also weigh New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s demand that agencies find another 2.5% in savings, a new Blakeman-aligned poll claiming a four-point race, and Bruce Blakeman’s charge that Democrats will try to steal the election — a claim O’Donnell calls "really irresponsible." The conversation closes with O’Donnell’s optimistic outlook for upstate New York and recognition for his firm on City & State‘s Top Workplaces and Upstate Power 100 lists.
Joanna Pasceri
Governor Hochul is back on the road. Democrats are making their midterm push and another poll and major accusations are shaking up the race for governor. Hi everybody and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. Every week we break down the stories, what’s really happening in New York politics and what’s worth paying attention to. Joining me, as always, is Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. After [years] in and around government, he’s watched these issues play out from every angle. Jack, great to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to be with you, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s start with Governor Hochul. She’s back on the road again this week holding events around the state to defend and explain her decision to pause data center projects for a year. Why is she doing this? Is she trying to win over the public or quiet the criticism?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think she wants to make sure the public knows that she did this right. The state legislature passed their own moratorium and then she stepped in and took executive action with an executive order. And you know, we’ve talked about the merits of the policy and there are some of it that makes sense and plenty of people have some problems with it. But broadly, it’s wildly popular. I mean, data centers have become just the boogeyman in this election. And you know, you see that a lot in elections — healthcare executives, real estate, you know, whoever is the bad guy. And it’s not always that they’re really bad guys or that their policies are bad or they’re not reacting the same things the rest of us are. But this is kind of how things go in politics. I mean, we’re at a point right now where there’s a massive data center project in Texas. But it has gotten so much pushback that the Texas state legislature, which is, you know, traditionally incredibly friendly to these kinds of companies and policies, is talking about going into emergency session. They meet only for a few months every two years, but they’re talking about coming back into session to stop a data center in Texas. So, you know, the public doesn’t want to see these right now. And so Governor Hochul is rightfully going around and taking some credit for her decision.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, speaking of tours, House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries was in Buffalo and he was in Rochester this week. In Buffalo, he sharply criticized the upcoming federal health care spending cuts and promised that Democrats would reverse them if they regain control of the House. We have fewer than 100 days now until the midterms. Could health care become one of the issues that move the vote?
Jack O’Donnell
Yes. I mean this is a big deal. Republicans, when they passed the one big beautiful bill, House Resolution 1, whatever you want to call it — it’s gone by many names intentionally — a lot of health care changes don’t actually go into effect until January. So people aren’t necessarily going to see or feel those cuts. So it is interesting, you know, whether people realize it and if people are excited about it or worked up and is that enough to get them out and to get them to vote? And if so, how do they vote? We’re already seeing folks who are going into hospital emergency rooms who are having trouble paying, people dropping Obamacare because the federal subsidies that were lowering people’s payments were eliminated. So, you know, we’re seeing some impact on that. Hospitals are beginning to report on that and how many people they have coming in and sort of what it’s costing. So, you know, a lot more to go on this. But whether it will be a difference maker remains to be seen.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, speaking of the midterms, New York Democrats are trying to win back a veto-proof supermajority in the state Senate after losing it a couple of years ago. They’re targeting several Republican-held districts, including an open seat. Can they make this happen?
Jack O’Donnell
Yes. And even maybe probably this year. I mean, Democrats in the state Senate have some challenges in Long Island, but they don’t have as many seats there as they used to. And the sort of northern suburbs of New York City will also be a battleground. You know, look, there’s a lot made about this. The reality is that it doesn’t really matter. We have not seen a veto override in the New York State legislature in, I don’t know, 25 years, 23 years, something like that — back in the Pataki administration. So, you know, I think it sounds good. And look, Democrats, especially in New York, are on the offensive and have Democratic energy behind them. So I think there’s a good chance they get there. But I don’t know that it changes anything practically in the state Senate in January.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s head to New York City. Mayor Mamdani is asking every city agency to find another 2.5% in savings. And we now hear he’s going to continue to push for higher taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers in the days ahead. Is this the right strategy? He has another multibillion-dollar deficit already on the horizon.
Jack O’Donnell
I’ll leave it to him whether it’s the right strategy. I mean, he is excellent at the politics and now we get to see how he [does] at the governing. Look, last year the state really stepped in. Originally the governor and then the governor and the legislature came in and really made a lot of resources available to New York City. They authorized some one-shots around education and some pension things that put off some costs for the city of New York and were really helpful. That was also in a year where the state was in a at least reasonable fiscal situation. As we’ve talked about at length and as we expect, next year may be a much more challenging budget year for the state. And so to come back and say you need even more resources, that’s going to be tough. But we also talked about how he’s expanded his allies, especially his DSA members in Albany, who will be also echoing that chorus on tax the rich and be up against the governor [who] absolutely doesn’t want to do that. Whether she will feel as strongly about that in a non-election year and whether the fiscal situation merits that — that’s why January to April or whenever the budget gets done next year is going to be a wild ride.
Joanna Pasceri
Now to the governor’s race. It seems every week brings another poll. Most independent surveys have shown Governor Hochul with a comfortable lead. But a new poll backed by a pro-Bruce Blakeman super PAC says the race is within four points. And then we’re hearing some strong comments from Bruce Blakeman, her Republican opponent, who now claims the Democrats will try to steal this election. So what is going on here?
Jack O’Donnell
The polling is one thing, right? And this is a concerted, strategic or at least tactical decision by the Blakeman campaign which is to pump out some polls. We’ve seen them from right-leaning or pro-Blakeman polling sources that pit the race as closer than any of the independent surveys. I’m skeptical of that, as are a lot of other people. We don’t have all the data on those private polls the way we do on the public polls. But one thing is clear: they’re modeling a much higher Republican turnout than anyone else is, or some kind of enthusiasm that we don’t see and haven’t seen in any other parts of the state. So I was skeptical of that. But strategically, to change the narrative — and some of this becomes self-fulfilling, right? If you’re winning, you can raise money which allows you to compete, which helps narrow the gap. And so I think that is a tried-and-true campaign method and they’re doing it well. We saw some of that from Zeldin’s campaign four years ago, and they did it effectively. This latest call about stealing the election I think is nonsense and really crosses the line. I mean, the New York State Board of Elections is in some ways a real gold standard. We have a paper trail for every ballot that is cast. We have some records around those things. Years ago, this decision to allow the makeup of the boards of elections — they have a Republican commissioner and a Democratic commissioner, so you have one watching the other, and it works well. They may turn a blind eye to some patronage hires from time to time, but this — that Democrats are trying to steal the election or that an election could be stolen in New York — is really irresponsible, and I think he should stop.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s end on a brighter note here, Jack. It’s been a good few weeks for O’Donnell & Associates. The firm is on the business fast track. It was named once again a top workplace by City & State New York. And you were again recognized on the Upstate Power 100 list. You’ve spent your career working across every corner of New York. While New York City often gets a lot of the attention, how do you see upstate New York’s future?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, what a good question. First, what an honor to be on these lists. And I feel really special. It’s my name, it’s my picture, but it’s this team, Joanna. It’s you. And it is all the people that work together. And that’s why being on the great places to work list is, I think, one of the things I’m most proud of because I really love working with this team. These are people I like, people I trust, people I learn from, and people who are impressive and dynamic. So to get to be a part of it and the face of it is — I don’t know, that’s really cool. Upstate New York is my home. This is where I grew up. This is where I got my start. This is where my family has grown and been successful. And I love upstate New York. Gosh, especially at the end of July and August. There’s nowhere better to be. But upstate has had a tough go for the last, oh man, maybe 50 years. We’ve seen the world change around us. We’ve seen manufacturing disappear. We’ve seen the population drain. We’ve seen a lot of these things happen. But I remain incredibly optimistic about the future. I think we have so many really bright [people] investing, and that is true in the nonprofit space, the political space, and increasingly in the business space. And I think the things that these communities have to offer — a quality of life, an educated workforce, some schools where people can go and their kids can thrive, but also just a great quality of life where you can own a nice house, have a backyard and be part of a community. I also think these communities upstate have these vibrant downtowns. We’ve got fresh water, we’ve got creative people, we’ve got architecture, we’ve got culture. And increasingly the smart people in the world who get to choose where they want to work want to be in those places. So I’m optimistic about the future, but heck, there’s a lot of work left to do.
Joanna Pasceri
I’m a lifer too, and I think it’s a beautiful state as well, especially this time of year.
Jack O’Donnell
Especially. And it is just such an honor to do this work and to do it with these people — not just our team, [but] the people who put their trust in us and hire us and give us the opportunity to be part of their fight, because they are the ones who are making this place just so awesome.
Joanna Pasceri
Jack, as always, thanks for a great conversation.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to be with you, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
The countdown to the midterms is on. We’ll be watching the campaigns, the policy fights, and the decisions that could shape New York’s future. And for more insight each week, be sure to subscribe to Jack’s Monday Morning Memo. It brings together the biggest stories from New York and Washington and explains what they mean, all in one place. You can sign up at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
