Election Day Digest – U.S. House Races

In 2024, Democrats are targeting 18 House seats held by Republicans where in 2020, President Joe Biden would have beaten former President Donald Trump. In comparison, Republicans are targeting five House seats held by Democrats that Trump won in 2020.

6 of those 18 House seats are in New York where Democrats have already flipped NY-3 with the re-election of Tom Suozzi to Congress earlier this year in a Special Election to replace former Rep. George Santos who became only the sixth lawmaker ever to be expelled from that chamber. Another 5 of those House seats are in California that mirrored the New York dynamic of Governor Kathy Hochul underperforming President Biden with Governor Gavin Newsom underperforming President Biden in key congressional districts.

In this national spotlight, we highlight 8 key House races that are currently rated as toss-ups by multiple pollsters.

Read all of our 2024 Election Day Digests.

AZ-01: Republican incumbent David Schweikert faces Democratic challenger Dr. Amish Shah in this suburban battle in the wealthiest congressional district in Arizona. Maricopa County built up solid name recognition for itself in the aftermath of the 2020 Presidential Election and it looks to be a battleground once again. The Arizona 1^st comprises Northeastern Maricopa County including Northeast Phoenix and Scottsdale and is largely White (70%) and Hispanic (16%). In 2020, President Biden won by 1 percent while Schwikert was elected by 3,195 votes (0.8%) in 2022.

Prior to serving in Congress, Schweikert was Maricopa County Treasurer and served as a State Representative representing Scottsdale. Shah is an Indian American Emergency Room Physician and a former member of the Arizona State House. Shah is also a pilot who’s flown himself to treat patients in underserved communities. One intriguing New York connection is that Shah was once an NFL physician who provided emergency care to the New York Jets.

AZ-06: This district is another suburban battle outside of Tucson where Democrat Kirsten Engel is once again challenging Republican incumbent Juan Ciscomani. In 2022, Ciscomani edged out Engel by just 5,232 votes (1.5%). Ciscomani touts his bipartisan record and his biography as the first naturalized American citizen from Mexico elected to the US House in Arizona’s history. Engel’s campaign touts her background and life experiences as a mom, environmental attorney, and as a former State legislator. As with the Arizona 1^st, this district is largely White (63%) and Hispanic (24%).

CA-13: In New York, Governor Kathy Hochul received widespread criticism for underperforming President Biden in 2022. However, in California, there’s an equal case to be made that Governor Gavin Newsom’s underperformance may have cost the House Democrats a Congressional Majority. In this key Congressional District located in the Northern California section of the San Joaquin Valley, Republican incumbent John Duarte faces off once against Democrat Adam Gray. Duarte is a farmer and a businessman while Gray served in the State Assembly for a decade and founded the California Problem Solvers Caucus. Water rights are a major issue in this district with Gray touting his efforts against the State Water Grab. While President Biden won the district by 11 percentage points, Governor Newsom only received 45 percent while Senator Padilla performed slightly better with 49 percent. The district is largely Hispanic (66%) and White (22%) with a notable Asian (6%) population. Duarte defeated Gray by just 564 votes (0.4%) in 2022. If Gray can make up those votes in a presidential year, it could be the district that when it’s ultimately called makes Hakeem Jeffries the next Speaker of the House.

CA-27: Further down the California coast is another key congressional district in Northern Los Angeles County that includes part of the northwestern San Fernando Valley in the City of Los Angeles. Fighter pilot Mike Garcia is the Republican incumbent. Garcia is a highly decorated US Naval Officer who flew over 30 combat missions during Operation Iraqi Freedom. In 2020, President Biden won the district by 12 percentage points. Welcome to the political intersection of California with this district being Hispanic (42%), White (34%), Black (10%), and Asian (10%). Navigating the racial and political diversity is paramount in this district. In 2022, Governor Newsom only received 45 percent of the vote while Senator Padilla won the district with 51 percent of the vote. That margin of additional support from Hispanic voters was the difference for Garcia who won by 12,732 votes (6.4%).

Democrats are running George Whitesides, former NASA Chief of Staff in the Obama Administration and the first CEO of Virgin Galactic, the human spaceflight company founded by Richard Brandon to unseat Garcia in the hopes that his campaign can take flight.

CA-45: In Southern California, Republican incumbent Michelle Steel, one of the first Korean American women ever to serve in Congress faces off against Democrat Derek Tran, an Army veteran, consumer rights attorney, city commissioner, and small business owner. Tran is the son of refugees who fled the Communist regime in Vietnam. Both Steel and Tran will look to connect with their largely Asian constituency who represent nearly 40 percent of the district. Hispanics make up another 30 percent of the district with the White population representing another 25 percent. In 2020, President Biden won the district by 6 percentage points while Steel won by 10,494 votes (4.8%) in 2022. Two years ago, Governor Newsom and Senator Padilla each received approximately 49 percent of the vote. Democrats are hopeful that Tran can connect with enough Asian voters to flip this crucial House seat.

MI-07: With Rep. Elissa Slotkin vacating her seat in Congress to run for the United States Senate, Democrats are defending this open seat that centers around Lansing, Michigan’s State Capital where Slotkin won re-election by 20,000 votes (5 percent) in 2022. Republicans are once again running Tom Barrett, an Army veteran with experience serving as a State Legislator in the Michigan State House. The Democratic candidate is Curtis Hertel who’s most recently worked for Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer as her Director of Legislative Affairs. Hertel has also served in the Michigan State Senate. Gun violence has been an issue in this race as Hertel’s own son is a student at Michigan State and was on campus the night of the recent mass shooting.

This district has been a national bellwether in the past four presidential elections. Biden won with 49.6 percent in 2020, Trump won with 48.8 percent in 2016, and Obama won with 50.1 percent in 2012 and 52 percent in 2008 respectively. Look for this district to not only be a presidential bellwether but also a key factor in determining control of the United States Senate and the House of Representatives.

MI-08: Two years ago, Democrat Dan Kildee was re-elected to this district by a comfortable margin of over 34,000 votes (10%). Kildee was originally elected to Congress in 2012 replacing his uncle, Dale Kildee who had represented this district since 1977. Democrats are pivoting to Kristen Rivet, a State Senator who’s served as Executive Director of Michigan Head Start and as Chief of Staff for Michigan’s Department of Education. They hope to continue their hold on this district that includes Flint and Saginaw. Republicans are once again running Paul Junge, a prosecutor who worked in the Trump Administration at U.S. Citizenship & Immigration Services. It’s a battle of Michigan State (Rivet) vs. Michigan (Junge). The district is predominantly White (73%) with a sizable Black (15%) and Hispanic (5%) population. In 2020, President Biden won the district with 50 percent of the vote while Hillary Clinton received 48 percent of the vote in 2016. Democrats will almost certainly need to hold this seat if they hope to take control of Congress.

PA-08: Democratic incumbent Matt Cartwright is one of five Democrats serving in Congress who won in Congressional districts where former President Trump won in 2020. This Northeastern Pennsylvania district that includes Scranton and Wilkes-Barre is a key political intersection with the presidential election and a “keystone” race for the United States Senate. Cartwright, a trial attorney, has been in Congress since 2012 and has become a senior member of House Appropriations. Republicans came close to defeating Cartwright in 2020 and 2022, losing by an average of only 3 percent between both cycles. In 2022, Cartwright won re-election by just over 7,000 votes. Republicans are running Rob Bresnahan, a fifth generation Northeastern Pennsylvanian and CEO of Kuharchick Construction. The district is largely White (74%) and Hispanic (13%) with a notable Black (6%) population. Going into the final days of the campaign, Cartwright joined Sen. Bob Casey to announce $8.9 million through the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law in funding to restore rail service between Scranton and New York City. Democrats from across New York will be descending upon Scranton and Cartwright will hope to capitalize on those additional door knocks.

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