A new legislative session is underway in New York and Washington, and on this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, Managing Partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack the firm’s 2026 Legislative Preview. The conversation maps the political tightrope Governor Kathy Hochul is walking in an election year, the ripple effects of Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s win in New York City, the high stakes of the congressional midterms, deepening factional divides inside both major parties, and the New York policy fights — from childcare to Medicaid — most likely to define the year ahead.
Joanna Pasceri
A new legislative session is underway in New York and in Washington. And if early signs are any indication, it’s shaping up to be a wild ride in 2026. Hi, everybody. Glad to have you back with us from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell. We kick off the new year with political and policy predictions from Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, a top New York government affairs and political consulting firm. Jack looked deep into his crystal ball as he and his team laid out a comprehensive and engaging preview of the legislative landscape from Albany to D.C. So what will governing look like and what kinds of wins are actually possible as the political ground keeps shifting? Let’s bring in Jack to help us make sense of it all. Welcome back to the Lobby, Jack.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great to be with you in 2026.
Joanna Pasceri
Lot happening this year. Let’s start in New York. You say the governor and legislators are walking a tightrope, trying to advance progressive priorities while staying focused on the issues voters care about, like affordability. How difficult is that balancing act going to be in 2026, an election year for both the governor and the legislators?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, what a good question. Election politics drives so much of what we see. You know, the governor and the legislature really have different jobs here and different priorities. The legislature, certainly the Democratic majorities in the Assembly and in the Senate, have very Democratic districts. That’s the result of gerrymandering, redistricting, but also just the population numbers in New York. So the legislature can afford to be a little more focused on those priorities that are coming out of the left and some of that very progressive energy, where the governor, although she does have a Democratic primary coming up, also has a general election. And that’s just a different reality than most of the state legislative seats.
So she’s got the toughest job in all of this, between balancing the real energy that is coming from the Democratic far left, the democratic socialists, the Working Families Party, the activist class out there, where she also needs to balance the business community. Those are the folks who create jobs in New York and have extra loud voices in part because of their participation in the political process — fundraising, but also if business isn’t here, the jobs aren’t here and the budget doesn’t balance and all those other things. I think the governor really has her work cut out for her. But I’ll tell you, I think this is exactly where she wants to be. I think Kathy Hochul genuinely is someone who’s kind of in that middle road. She is a Democrat. She cares about people. She believes government has a moral imperative role to help people, but at the same time sees the need to be fiscally conservative, a responsible steward of the state finances. It’s a tough job, but I think Kathy Hochul’s exactly where she wants to be.
Joanna Pasceri
In the preview, you do highlight the political changes from the 2025 election, the strong groundbreaking wins for Democrats across the state, including the left-leaning coalition that elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani. How will Mamdani in particular impact what’s going to happen during this legislative session?
Jack O’Donnell
I would strongly encourage our listeners to check out the preview. It’ll go into a lot more depth. It’s on our website there. But I think, look, New York City is the center and the beginning of so much that happens in New York. And the mayor of New York City tends to certainly have a really high perch in terms of state politics. Right now, we also have a new mayor who has a national platform as the leading Democratic socialist, as someone who has taken on President Trump and met with and charmed President Trump. But New York City is also where a lot of the political power flows from. They have the most state assembly members, the most state senators, and frankly the most powerful — or many of the most powerful — of those state legislators. And so whatever happens in New York City affects everything else.
So the mayor is going to be driving his agenda. So much of what he campaigned on was predicated on raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers, which is something that the governor has rejected, frankly. That is something that the Assembly and the Senate have called for multiple times over the last decades. So these aren’t new. It’s just that there is a new face in front of it, with a really savvy political operation, social media operation, and boots on the ground operation. So that’s going to be a real challenge for the governor to find ways to show that she is working with Mamdani and helping the Mamdani administration and the people of New York City succeed, but at the same time showing that she’s charting her own course.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, this year is also an election year for Congress, facing dozens of retirements and resignations. What’s at stake in this year’s midterms for New York and in D.C.?
Jack O’Donnell
Control of Congress is at stake. And you don’t have to look very far to see what that means. We’re talking about the state budget wildly impacted by Medicaid cuts, some other hospital cuts, insurance cuts. We are seeing this week cuts to federal funding for childcare. Those have huge impacts on the bottom line in New York before you even get to who’s receiving those services, what they look like, and how important they are to individual families.
So the direction of the country is at stake. And Donald Trump is going to be president for three more years. Possible but very unlikely that Democrats can take control of the United States Senate just based on that map. So a lot of this comes down to the House of Representatives, which is the one place where Democrats have a real shot of gaining a majority. And I’ll just add one more point. We’ve seen state legislators today saying, well, if the federal government is going to cut off funds for New York and other blue states, maybe it’s time for the states to cut off their funding for the federal government. So this is definitely going to escalate and be a huge conversation, controversy, as we head into those midterms.
Joanna Pasceri
You write in the preview about the political shakeups within the major parties — factions developing, the left-leaners in the Democratic Party and the MAGA defectors for the Republicans. Do you see this intensifying in 2026?
Jack O’Donnell
Absolutely. I think the divisions within the Democratic Party are on full display. You could see that in the Mamdani, the New York City election. You’re going to see it in some primaries for those congressional seats that we were just talking about. Center-left Democrats saying, “I’m the only one who can win.” Far-left Democrats saying, “You need to do more and it’s our time, our turn.” But also Kathy Hochul is facing a primary from her lieutenant governor, who is increasingly trying to tie himself to that left wing, the progressive side of this. So I think absolutely that continues to blow up.
Republicans have this sort of easy way out, which is they have a leader that many of them are afraid of or allied to or both in Donald Trump. And that has really papered over a lot of the divisions between different factions within the Republican Party. But we’ve seen them each time these different spending issues have come up. The federal government is facing another deadline later this month for how taxation and spending is going to look. Republicans — some of them looking for big cuts and others saying, “I need federal programs in my district.” So these divisions are just going to amplify as we head towards November.
Joanna Pasceri
And that brings me to my next question. Just how productive do you think this year will be for legislative bodies in New York and D.C.?
Jack O’Donnell
I think in New York, you’ll probably see a lot more progress. That gets much harder in D.C., where even though Republicans have majorities in the Senate and in the House, in the Senate you need 60 votes to do most anything. So it gets much harder to get things done. And because Democrats in Congress are facing those same divisions between folks who want to work through the middle and want to push to the far left, as we get closer to Election Day, it gets harder to get things done. I’m optimistic we’ll see some real results in New York, even if maybe the real result doesn’t match the rhetoric. But in D.C., I’m a bit more pessimistic that we’re going to see anything get done.
Joanna Pasceri
Do you think we’ll see another shutdown this month?
Jack O’Donnell
We’re going to reserve judgment on that right now. My guess is no. But let’s see how it goes.
Joanna Pasceri
Exactly. Let’s give that one a couple of weeks. Well, inside our preview, you can find a full list of the policies and issues that will be on the agenda in New York this year. Again, that’s on our website, odonnellsolutions.com. We know you’ll be watching all of them, but are there any issues or policies that you think will really stand out this year?
Jack O’Donnell
One is where the governor and the new mayor in New York City and the other new mayors in upstate are kind of aligned, and sort of where her ideas are there, especially around things like childcare and around things like infrastructure and public transportation and sort of what that looks like. The flip side of this is the threats with federal cuts coming. How does New York afford to continue providing Medicaid benefits that we do, insurance benefits, provide that health care to folks who are now getting cut off by the federal government? How do you do that at a time of escalating prices, costs, and decreasing reimbursement?
So how you do that, how you look to be a long-term fiscal steward — those are the real challenges for the governor that are really full of pitfalls here. If you anger the folks who are part of these really key Democratic constituencies — hospitals, health care providers, health care unions, education unions, education providers — those are kind of third rails, but they have to be on the block here. So what that looks like going forward is really where we’re going to be digging into the small print.
Joanna Pasceri
A lot to navigate and plenty of fireworks ahead here in New York and D.C. Jack, as always, thanks for the insight. We’ll be looking for more in your next Sunday Morning Memo. There’s a lot unfolding in politics and government this year. Don’t get left in the dark. Take a look at our 2026 Legislative Preview and get a clear view of the risks and the rewards in the major policy decisions ahead. You can find it on our website, odonnellsolutions.com. And while you’re there, be sure to sign up for our Monday Morning Memo, your weekly no-paywall update on the political and policy issues impacting you or your business. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll be back soon from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
