This week on From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack a wave of political shifts reshaping New York and the national landscape. From progressive challenger Maurice Brown’s upset of longtime Assemblyman Bill Magnarelli in Syracuse to a federal appeals court clearing the way for New York’s All-Electric Buildings Act, O’Donnell examines where the Democratic Party’s energy is heading, whether House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries could face future primary trouble, and what New York City’s balanced-but-patchwork budget deal signals for next year. He also weighs in on a new Siena poll showing Governor Kathy Hochul gaining ground against Republican Bruce Blakeman even as voters remain cool to mid-decade redistricting — and closes with a reflection on America’s 250th birthday and why, despite the noise, he remains proud to be an American.
Joanna Pasceri
An incumbent upset in a Democratic primary, a major court ruling on all-electric buildings, and another glitch in the push for redistricting. Hi, everybody, and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. Each week we step back from the headlines to look at what’s changing in New York politics and what could happen next. Joining us is Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. After decades in and around Albany, he’s learning that politics doesn’t slow down when the legislative session ends. Jack, great to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, it’s great to be here. Though I gotta tell you, it’s a little hot in the lobby.
Joanna Pasceri
Yeah, it’s pretty steamy outside. And of course, the news is still very hot from the primaries. Let’s start in Syracuse. The votes are finally in. Progressive challenger Maurice Brown unseated longtime Assemblyman Bill Magnarelli. The progressive movement had a strong showing in New York City in the primaries. Now we’re seeing gains upstate. What’s your takeaway?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, I mean, we talked a lot about this last week. It’s just where the energy is in the Democratic Party. We saw a DSA assembly member win an open seat in Buffalo in spite of being outspent significantly. We saw some gains — we’ll talk about this in this week’s memo — in Colorado in their primaries this week for the left, and in Syracuse, longtime incumbent, longtime friend of the firm Bill Magnarelli went down to progressive challenger Mo Brown. I have nothing but really good things to say about Bill Magnarelli. We’ve worked closely with him, especially as the Transportation chair years ago — had an office in Syracuse down the hall from him. I think he’s been a great representative. But the energy from primary voters is to the left. It is younger, it is in a fighting mood, and we saw that. Now look, we’ve hosted Mo Brown on this podcast in the past. A great young up-and-comer. I think he will be a benefit to the legislature. But sad to see Bill Magnarelli go.
Joanna Pasceri
You wrote in this week’s memo that progressives are now setting their sights on House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries, a longtime congressman from Brooklyn. He dodged a challenger this year. Could he face more trouble ahead? And how could this affect his efforts to help Democrats regain control of the House?
Jack O’Donnell
You know, he dodged that challenge with a strong assist from New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, who then lined up behind some of these other challengers. So absolutely, Jeffries could face a challenge in the future. One of the things we’re looking at — and maybe we’ll talk about a little in the memo — the underlying thing is New York State is also looking to do some more redistricting. And so what might that mean for some of these progressives in these districts? But we’re not there yet. We’re just staring down this midterm. Look, no matter the state of the Democratic Party, Republicans are going to say Democrats are too radical. Whether that was the members who won primaries last week or Zohran Mamdani’s win last year for mayor, that’s what they were going to say. Democrats have this challenge, as do Republicans, that in safe seats, being further to the left, being further to the right is really helpful. That’s how you win primaries. But that’s not how you win general elections. And there are just so few competitive seats across the country. Those members really have to come from a different part of the Democratic Party if they’re gonna win. We have not seen progressives, we have not seen DSA members winning in a lot of these more purple seats. So that’s a challenge Democrats have to navigate. But it’s also a challenge Republicans have to navigate. New York 21 — Constantino won that primary against a maybe safer pair of hands in Assemblymember Robert Smullen. We’ve seen the Republican establishment come in and endorse him this week. That’s a seat that is strong Republican, but Democrats are claiming they’re neck and neck in some of their own polling. So take it with a grain of salt. But that’s going to be tougher for them because they have a more conservative, bit more unpredictable candidate. So it’s a challenge for both sides. And I still like Hakeem Jeffries’ chances. I like the Democrats’ chances to win the House.
Joanna Pasceri
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, speaking of him — he and the city council reached a budget deal just before the deadline. It’s balanced, but it leans heavily on one-time revenues and accounting shifts. Is this a good budget, or is the city just buying time until an even tougher budget battle next year?
Jack O’Donnell
Look, we’ve talked about the state budget and how that promises to be a really difficult fight next year. The same is very much true at the New York City budget. In addition to the other sort of gimmicks or one-shots that New York City is using that appear to be in this budget, they’re relying on some help from the state — a "hey, we need this more money" — and then continue to increase spending. And some of the relief from the state are also one-year pieces. So, man, I think we’re looking at a tough state budget year, tough New York City budget year next year. And it’s going to be harder for New York City to go back to the state and say, "hey, we need additional help," when they increase spending like this. That just becomes harder and harder.
Joanna Pasceri
Big court ruling this week. A federal appeals court has upheld New York’s All-Electric Buildings Act, a law that requires most new buildings to be powered by electricity instead of natural gas. This law had been on hold while this court challenge played out. Now that it’s been upheld, what happens?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, the court declined to intervene, which allows it to stand. So it’s going to go into effect. Some of these climate challenges are things we’ve talked a lot about here, we’ve written a lot. They are a huge battleground in Albany between the environmentalists who want to see more and see it now, and folks led by the governor and other moderates in the state legislature who say we can’t pay for it. We’ve got to balance affordability, also balance the fact that different parts of the state experience different weather patterns and also have different generations. So look, New York City is out there. They’ve led on this, and we’re going to see some of this go into effect. It’ll be a real laboratory of how these things work and what it means for building, for investment. And how that plays out will be closely watched in Albany and throughout the country.
Joanna Pasceri
You also wrote in the memo this week about a new Siena poll that brought more encouraging news for Governor Hochul. Her favorability is up. Her lead over Republican opponent Bruce Blakeman has grown. But the same poll also found that voters don’t like the idea of changing New York’s redistricting rules mid-decade. What do you think overall of the results of this poll, and why do you think voters are so reluctant on redistricting?
Jack O’Donnell
Look, good for the governor. She continues to creep up. A lot of these polls are good for her, though we’ve said it before, things are likely to tighten before Election Day. Bruce Blakeman is getting his first tranche of public financing for his campaign. We’ll start to see more of him and that’ll play out. You saw it on primaries from both sides, and I think you see it in this poll. Voters are fed up with the status quo and they’re fed up with politicians. Not something that’s super new, but I think it’s hitting new heights, or higher heights, again. I don’t think most voters — again, exceptions for the far left and the far right — like politicians picking their voters. They want the voters to pick the politicians. We saw this a couple years ago. The last time there was changes to the independent redistricting piece on the state ballot, it was handily voted down. Democrats are going to advance this. They will put more resources behind trying to sell this to voters next year. I expect it to be on the ballot in November of ’27. But it’s an uphill road. Just saying "Republicans did it somewhere else" — that may convince partisan Democrats, but it doesn’t convince the majority of New Yorkers that we want to be like everyone else. This partisanship, the hyper-partisanship that folks see in Washington and they see across the country — they hate it.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, before we let you go, Jack — the country is preparing to celebrate its 250th birthday. For people who spend their lives around politics and government, it’s quite a milestone. So what does this anniversary mean to you, and what do you hope Americans take away from it?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, it’s pretty exciting. I know it’s starting to get some press now, but again, the hyper-partisanship really kind of steps on some of what I believe should be just an enormous celebration. We can talk about all of the things that are wrong right now, and we do, and we talk about them a lot. But underlying all of this — a system that works, a country, an experiment that has held for 250 years. It is arguably the biggest force in changing the world in those 250 years. I also get frustrated: a lot of people, if they’re not harping about the differences and the problems today, are busy talking about the flaws of the founding fathers, the flaws of our founding documents. The beauty in this, to me, is that they are flawed and that they continue to get better. Everyone who is left out of the original Declaration, everyone who is left out of the original Constitution — this country has moved toward including them. Jon Ossoff, the senator from Georgia, just gave this speech that I thought was incredible. He was speaking to a partisan Democratic crowd and said something about, "What would the founders see today?" And I think the hyper-Democrats in that crowd wanted him to start complaining about the president. Instead, he started talking about a country that ended slavery, a country that has brought women and brought people without land and brought African Americans and brought Native Americans and brought all these people into the political process. So make no mistake, we have a long way to go. There is so much that could be better. But, man, it’s great to be an American.
Joanna Pasceri
I love that. Thanks so much for sharing that, Jack. And thanks so much for being in the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Thanks for having me, Joanna. Stay cool.
Joanna Pasceri
You too. Attention is already shifting to the midterm elections, new policy battles, and the decisions that will shape the coming months. Stay ahead of the conversation with Jack’s Monday Morning Memo — the news you need to know from New York to D.C., and the insight to make sense of it. It lands in your inbox every week. No paywall. Just sign up at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
