New York is barreling into a high-stakes election year facing a sobering forecast: the loss of two congressional seats after the 2030 census, a $12 billion budget gap in Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s first spending plan, and a deepening divide over ICE enforcement that’s reshaping the governor’s race. On this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack New York’s shrinking influence in Washington, the rapid rise of the Democratic Socialists of America, Governor Kathy Hochul’s scramble for a new lieutenant governor, and the last-minute deal to avert a federal government shutdown.
Joanna Pasceri
The pressure is building in politics and government as we head into the budget season and the start of a critical election year. Between power struggles in Washington and growing political movements here at home, the stakes are getting higher by the day. Hi, everybody. Welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. Joining us as always is Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, one of New York’s top government affairs firms and someone who’s been watching the drama unfold up close from Washington to Albany. Jack, great to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great, great to be with you.
Joanna Pasceri
New York getting some concerning news this week. New projections show the state could lose two congressional seats after the 2030 census — a hit to the state’s influence in Washington. What’s behind this and can it be turned around?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, what a good question. I mean, this isn’t necessarily new. I think we saw where the state was demographically, but this latest study reinforces that and puts it in stark political terms. New York state gonna lose two seats. And that’s not just limiting the voices that we have in Congress. So many of the federal formulas rely on population and that determines how much money comes and goes. The irony is that New York’s population has swung back into a positive and basically held steady. But the difference is the rest of the country — big places, Texas, Florida, North Carolina — are growing and New York is not. You’re going to hear a lot from different segments of the political community blaming the other for why that is, but I don’t see it changing. I think these are long-term trends and we need to face them down.
Joanna Pasceri
Meantime, the number of Democratic Socialists of America members are climbing nationwide since New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani launched his campaign, jumping from about 50,000 to more than 90,000 members. Should we be reading the writing on the wall here this election season?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, we certainly know that people like a winner. I suspect — you’re starting to see a lot more people wearing Buffalo Sabres gear since they’ve been red hot. I think that’s the first factor here is that Mamdani won and it’s cool and it’s new and it’s fresh and you’ve seen people sign up to be a part of that and associate with it. But some of this also — we saw this during the first Trump term, that Democratic energy gets fired up. We saw that around some of these progressive groups, the Indivisibles and a bunch of these different associations. And they did have a major political impact. What we saw in New York was really left Democrats beating centrist Democrats. Energy on the left is not unusual, it’s not surprising, but it really could influence, especially in Democratic primaries that we’re seeing for the state legislature and for Congress.
Joanna Pasceri
Speaking of Mayor Mamdani, he’s now rolling out his preliminary budget that includes a big budget gap, about $12 billion over the next two years. And the new mayor pointed the blame squarely at the Adams administration for that big deficit. What do you make of that?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, on some level, right, Mayor Mamdani has been in office 30 days. It has to be his predecessor’s fault, right? But I think that a lot of folks knew that there was a deficit, whether it was this high — there’s some dispute around that. But it’s real and it’s a real challenge. And this is what we heard from some of the new mayor’s opponents during the primary and the general election: you can’t do all these things for free because you can’t even pay for what you already have. The real test is how people respond. A big part of the Mamdani push is that the state should fill most of that gap and they should do it by raising taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers. That’s not an argument that’s going over well with the governor. So this is something that’s gonna keep playing out.
Joanna Pasceri
Turning to the New York governor’s race, Kathy Hochul running out of time now to name a new lieutenant governor as Antonio Delgado continues his primary challenge against her. Who’s in the mix for this number two spot and why are we hearing so many potential candidates passing on the job?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think you always hear that. Some of that is self-effacing. Some of that is to just get your name out there in the mix by saying you don’t want it. But it’s not always been a great job. I mean, you look at the governor and her relationship with her lieutenant governor, her relationship as lieutenant governor with the previous governor — it’s sort of fraught. That said, I think the governor will find someone that she’s really comfortable with. Some of the most prominent names out there for lieutenant governor are Robert Rodriguez, the former Secretary of State, former assemblyman, now at the Dormitory Authority. We’ve heard Walter Mosley, who is the current Secretary of State. There’s been a lot of talk around Assemblymember Brian Cunningham, who is just a great, very impressive, up-and-coming young member of the Assembly. He has been frank in his interest in the job. A little more complicated is we’ve heard Eric Gonzalez, who’s the Brooklyn district attorney. He is a really impressive public servant, someone who’s gotten a lot done, really well respected. Again, to your earlier point, would he want to leave being in charge of the DA’s office to be lieutenant governor? We’ll wait and see. I won’t name any names, but I know some people who have served as lieutenant governor and I remember talking to them an hour or two before they were asked and they said, “No way, I’m never going to do that. I’ve got a much better gig.” And three hours later, they were on their way to being lieutenant governor. So a lot to play out here. The Democratic State Convention is coming up real soon, so we’re going to get the answer to this over the next couple days.
Joanna Pasceri
On the campaign trail, the candidates for governor are divided over the controversial ICE raids that turned deadly in Minnesota. Governor Hochul vowed to fight President Trump’s mass deportation push, while her Republican opponent, Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman, is promising full cooperation with ICE. How important will immigration be in this race?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think how it plays out over the next few weeks could really be defining. Some of that starts with what happens in Minnesota. We’ve heard different things about de-escalation from the Trump administration, but all this is gonna play out. You mentioned the Republican candidate, Bruce Blakeman and his position, sort of Governor Hochul. But there’s a piece on the left here, right, where we heard earlier this week from state Senate leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins about the New York For All legislation, which goes further than Governor Hochul intends to go. So I think all of this speaks to something we’ve talked a lot about on this show, which is the balancing act that Governor Hochul has between the far-left resistance push from the Democratic Party and folks on the conservative side of the aisle who say law enforcement 100,000% first — and where’s that balance? So I think that’s a tough place to be. But as I’ve said before, I think being in the middle of that is exactly where Governor Hochul feels comfortable.
Joanna Pasceri
Meantime, at the time of this podcast, the deadline to fund the government just hours away with Democrats saying they will block new funding for ICE. But it looks now as if a deal will be reached in time to avoid a shutdown. Are you surprised by this bipartisan effort?
Jack O’Donnell
Surprised? I do think the damage done to the economy and to everyone, Democrats and Republicans, because of the shutdown, are good explanations. But the real answer about this deal is that it’s short-term. It allows cooperation that we’d seen coming over the last couple months and certainly more intensely over the last couple weeks to move forward with standard appropriations bills. That was on track before the latest fatality at ICE’s hands in Minnesota. But what they’re doing is just sort of kicking the Homeland Security funding down the road for two weeks. So, as we talked about in New York, the divides over what to do about Homeland Security funding, what to do about ICE funding, those are even more acute at the national level. Good news in that there’s a deal, but bad news, there’s more deal-making to be done.
Joanna Pasceri
We’ll look forward to reading more in our Monday Morning Memo next week. Jack, as always, thanks for helping us make sense of it all.
Jack O’Donnell
Sounds great. Thanks, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
The political ground is shifting fast, and this election cycle is already shaping up to be one of the most intense in years. At O’Donnell & Associates, we’re tracking it all. Stay up on what’s ahead with our 2026 Legislative Preview and New York Executive Budget Overview, available now on our website at odonnellsolutions.com. And for weekly insight, make sure you’re reading Jack’s Monday Morning Memo, a concise, no-paywall look at the political and policy developments shaping New York and Washington, delivered straight to your inbox. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll be back soon from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
