The New York state budget deadline has come and gone with no deal in sight, a new poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman narrowing the gap with Governor Kathy Hochul, and Mayor Zohran Mamdani is locked in a standoff with the New York City Council over how to close a budget gap. On this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack a stalled Albany negotiation, a campaign finance fight that could cost Blakeman millions, and a possible Washington deal on Department of Homeland Security funding. O’Donnell explains why governors keep folding policy into must-pass budgets, why the polling shift may be a moment rather than a movement, and how Albany’s final deal could dictate the outcome of New York City’s budget battle.
Joanna Pasceri
The deadline has come and gone and the budget still isn’t done. So now what? Plus, a new poll shakes up the governor’s race. And in New York City, the budget fight is getting louder and more complicated. Hi, everybody. Welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell, a podcast where we tap into the insights of Jack, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. He’s watching the negotiations, the politics and the pressure points. Jack, good to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, nice to be back with you.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s start with the budget. The deadline has come and gone again. How long could this stretch out?
Jack O’Donnell
You know, I feel like almost every week we’re talking about how much has happened and how much is going on. This is one of those weeks where nothing is going on, even though the deadline has come and gone. I mean, look, last year it stretched out about six weeks, almost six weeks. It was May 9th or something when the budget finally passed. It could go that long. It could go longer, but we just don’t know. The governor is pushing some policy. The legislature is resisting that. I think right now the religious holidays, Passover, Easter are kind of getting in the way of any real conversation. And so hopefully next week we’ll see the leaders really sit down and dig in. But until then, it’s just unclear. So hang on.
Joanna Pasceri
Right. We hear this every year, lawmakers frustrated that policy issues are slowing everything down. A lot of that comes from these proposals pushed by the governor. Why bundle these bigger issues into the budget?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, without being too flippant, the answer is because she can. The governor has a lot of power in the budget. It is a must pass. And no matter what else is in there, there’s always lots of good things, whether that’s education funding or healthcare funding or economic development money. There’s a lot in there that people need that legislators really like. Using the leverage of those must pass things to also get the changes you want on some policy issues is a time honored tradition of New York governors. Been going on for a long time, but really accelerated under Governor Cuomo. And Kathy Hochul is taking that to the next level. She’s just learned more and more over the last few years as to how to be effective at getting what she wants and in a big way is leveraging this budget process.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s turn now to the campaign. A new poll shows Republican Bruce Blakeman gaining some ground, narrowing the gap between the two of them. Is this a real shift?
Jack O’Donnell
My first inclination is that it is just a moment in time. If you dig a little deeper into the polling, the governor’s approvals don’t change. Bruce Blakeman’s numbers haven’t really improved. We see a change in the governor’s support, both in independent voters or unaffiliated voters, as well as a drop in support in New York City. And I think those reflect two things. One is folks are unhappy with where the state and country is. You know, $4 gasoline and uncertainty in the stock market, uncertainty in the wider world. It makes people anxious. And often you see those signs first with independent voters because they’re the swingiest, if you will, the ones who bounce around the most. And then I also think you’re seeing a reaction to some of the uncertainty around the New York City budget. People who didn’t vote for Mamdani, unhappy with his direction, the pushback from the council, a lot of those things, and maybe taking that out on Kathy Hochul, but she still has a sizable lead in that poll. So we’ll be watching to see if that’s consistent or like you said, just a moment.
Joanna Pasceri
At the same time, there’s an issue with campaign funding. Blakeman can’t access matching funds from New York State because of a paperwork problem. He’s calling it political. Others say it’s the rules. How big of a setback is this?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, look, if this holds, and I expect we’ll see a court case right away about this, if it holds, it’s a really big blow to his campaign. It could be as much as 7 million, $8 million that he would have already been entitled to, that he won’t be able to access. So, I mean, that matters, right? Having the financial resources to compete is a necessary prerequisite in political campaigns these days. That said, Democrats are saying he had to fill out the paperwork, but the board changed the rules in December. They didn’t actually make the forms available. There are several examples of other situations where the board has allowed people to make those changes to the form and then be eligible. Look, I think it’s bad for Bruce Blakeman if it holds. And even if it doesn’t, if he has to spend a lot of money on lawyers and some time waiting on this, it’s a blow to his campaign. At the same time, the details, I don’t think it looks good for Democrats. Using this board that you have a 4 to 3 partisan majority on to kick a legitimate contender out of this, I think most New Yorkers want a robust policy debate. And even if they’re not going to vote for Bruce Blakeman, races and democracy are good. So I don’t think it’s a good look, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the courts overturn it.
Joanna Pasceri
Mayor Zohran Mamdani appears to be in a standoff with the City Council. The council speaker wants to close the budget gap without cutting services, not by raising taxes on the wealthy. The mayor says that math does not work. So where does this go?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, this is the same kind of fight we see in Albany, we see in Washington, and frankly, that we’ve seen in New York City over the last couple of years. Eric Adams did some of this, but did it a little differently where he said all the cuts are gonna be in libraries and some things that people really care about to try to drive pressure on the council. And that really kind of backfired on him. So Mamdani’s taking a little different tact, but using the same levers here. Look, I think a lot of this depends what comes out of Albany, and we’ve talked about in a couple of our recent From the Lobby episodes here how there are an awful lot of members of the state legislature from New York City, plenty of them, allies of Zohran Mamdani, even people like the speaker of the assembly, who’s an ally and a major supporter of the city of New York. So I expect some things in a final budget deal will include some additional help for the city finances, how much that is, what that means will really dictate where that city council and mayor, the city budget fight goes. But I don’t think we’ll really know until we see how generous the state continues to be.
Joanna Pasceri
And finally to Washington, there’s talk of a deal to fund the Department of Homeland Security. Is this the real deal?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, it doesn’t look like it today, I’ll tell you. We heard there was a deal between the Senate and the House, endorsed by the president, a deal that people thought might have moved last week when the Senate passed something similar. But this morning, it looks like the House of Representatives declined to take any action on that. So at least no action, no real deal, no funding, until next week, after Easter at the earliest. It does seem like the efforts that the president and the Homeland Security chief have taken to get TSA agents funded is making a difference. ICE agents in some of these airports might be making a difference. I mean, look, I was in three different airports this week and I flew through five to ten, 15 minutes each time. And things were moving smoothly. So fingers crossed for everybody traveling this weekend.
Joanna Pasceri
Right. Well, Jack, always look forward to the next Monday Morning Memo. Thanks for joining us from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to be with you. Thanks, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
A late budget, a tighter race and a lot of moving pieces from New York to Washington, D.C. We’ll keep tracking it all for you. If you want more insight like this, check out Jack’s Monday Morning Memo delivered straight to your inbox each week. Sign up is easy. Just head to our website at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
