Three weeks past the deadline, New York’s budget remains unfinished — but for the first time, leaders are exchanging substantive proposals on climate goals, auto insurance, and housing. In this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri talks with Jack O’Donnell, managing director of O’Donnell & Associates, about where the budget really stands, why Governor Kathy Hochul is bending on climate targets but digging in on auto insurance reform, and how a proposed surcharge on high-value second homes could expand to upstate cities. They also break down Democrats’ improving midterm outlook, Senator Chuck Schumer’s recruitment work, and why Jack thinks New Jersey is mishandling transit costs for the FIFA World Cup.
Joanna Pasceri
Three weeks late and still no budget. Frustration is building and progress is slow. So where does the budget actually stand? Hi, everybody. Welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. Each week we take on the biggest political stories from Albany to Washington, cut through the rhetoric and explain what they really mean. Jack, managing partner at O’Donnell & Associates, is plugged into the conversations while watching how the deals come together, where they stall and why. Jack, great to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great to be with you.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s get an update of what’s happening. Three weeks late now. Tension is growing with legislative leaders now blaming the budget process that benefits the governor for this delay. What are you hearing? Are we getting any closer to a deal?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, good point. I mean, I think, as you rightfully note, the friction is turned up. And so I think people are feeling it. And that means people have an urge to kind of do something. I don’t want to say that a budget is imminent because it absolutely is not. But I think we’re at the point where the leaders are at least meeting. They are exchanging substantive proposals around auto insurance, the climate goals, the housing and funding for municipalities. So I do think that we’re at least past the middle of the process. That doesn’t mean we don’t have a ways to go still. But things are finally beginning to happen.
Joanna Pasceri
It appears that Governor Hochul is starting to bend a bit on climate goals, offering leaders more options with slightly earlier targets to cut fossil fuel emissions. Is this good faith bargaining?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, that’s exactly the kind of thing I’m referring to. I think where before everybody was just, these are our lines in the sand, I do think now there is some real conversation about what pieces look like, what can people live with. And so not only do I think this is good faith bargaining, I think it’s a step towards an agreement.
Joanna Pasceri
You mentioned the auto insurance reform. The governor is digging in on this and legislative leaders. So they don’t seem on board with everything she’s on board with. Could both sides just set it aside and move on?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think the governor’s got too much invested in this, both personally and from the kind of coalition around this. I mean, one of the underlying factors here is that the people paying for all these ads are the Ubers of the world. But I think something will get done. It does sound like there have been substantive, detailed conversations about where the individual lines are. We’ve heard from the Assembly and the Senate that they have conferenced around some pieces that involve liability and individual liability and a lot of stuff around legal contract nuance that, frankly, I didn’t do very well on in law school. But it does sound like they’re getting into the weeds on this, and that means that they’re looking to find some common ground.
Joanna Pasceri
The governor announced last week a surcharge on high value second homes in New York City as a potential revenue raiser. Now, upstate lawmakers want in, saying it could help their own communities lower budget gaps. Is this the way to go?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think this is how budgeting happens, right? I mean, the governor has this proposal which, again, we have not seen the details on, and those are really important factors on how you calculate who’s responsible. How much does it cost? Will it really bring in some of those revenue forecasts? And frankly, I thought it was a big deal. We heard from Speaker Heastie this week pushing Mayor Mamdani and Julie Menin and the New York City Council to come to some agreement on where the city is. Because this was a proposal by Governor Hochul to help fill some of the potential New York City budget gaps. And then I think you saw some upstate legislators, starting with Senator Pat Fahy. She’s a real favorite of ours. She is a go-getter and someone who gets things done, saying, well, if you’re gonna do this for people who aren’t living in New York City, how about we do it for the people who aren’t living in some of our other communities? So I haven’t heard that that’s really caught on. I don’t know that there is broad agreement yet to actually do this from both houses of the legislature. Still a ways to go. Really clever use of adding the upstate cities that are facing those same challenges, getting them into this conversation.
Joanna Pasceri
You wrote in the latest memo about Democrats gaining ground in midterm races. Election observers point to President Trump’s unpopular policies. How real is this shift? Are we looking at a possible change in control of Congress, or is it too soon?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, it’s just way too soon with the volatility of the world, the volatility of the president, and especially the volatility of the electorate. I mean, let’s start with the fact that we’ve got a really divided country. And it’s just a small group of people moving either way is how Congress has flipped, how the presidency has flipped, and some of those pieces. So I do think there is a long way to go. But it starts with the fact that six months ago, most people would have said the Democrats’ chances of taking control of the Senate was close to zero. And now they’re really in the game. We talked about four specific states where the Democrats are ahead in the polling. Now, again, long way to go. If Iran gets settled, if the cost of oil goes down, if Democrats continue to say and do foolish things, it won’t make any difference. But the fact is that this is alive is a testament to some of the work especially Minority Leader and New York Senior Senator Chuck Schumer and the DSCC have been doing. You can’t underrate the fact of the recruitment he’s done of candidates, and that’s what has put some of these races in play. So I do think this is real. This week we’re going to be talking a little more about the House of Representatives and some shifts we’ve seen there and what that might look like. But, gosh, this has an awful long way to go.
Joanna Pasceri
Last week we talked about the Buffalo Sabres playoff run. This week I was interested in your take on the big expense to attend the World Cup this summer. New Jersey transit fares to the game are soaring. Fans will pay over $100 for a train ticket that normally costs about $13. The New Jersey governor says it’s necessary to cover the cost of such an event. Is that a fair assessment?
Jack O’Donnell
You can kind of hear the Sabres playoff run in my voice this week, Joanna. Gosh. Well, hopefully it’s a long run and we’ll see how I recover. But I am also very excited about the World Cup. My wife and my family are Brazilian. And so Brazil is the number one country of soccer with five World Cups. So we’re very excited about the World Cup. Look, I think the New Jersey governor has this wrong and has played this wrong discouraging people from taking public transit, trying to get the money back. We heard from FIFA about commitments they’ve made to different municipalities. We saw in Philadelphia, they’re talking about offering free rides back from the stadium. I think she’s kind of missing this. But what’s also interesting, Joanna, is the other cost that is out of control is the ticket prices. And we also saw one of the issues that’s going on in Albany that I suspect we’ll hear more about after budget is New York’s ticketing laws. New York State Attorney General Tish James with a big win in court against Ticketmaster and Live Nation and their monopoly, which helps drive these prices up. She had an op-ed this week talking about it. We’ve heard a lot from New York City Mayor Mamdani about affordability and getting people to these games. So I think this is something we’re going to be talking about up until the World Cup starts and then in more detail through the summer.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, Jack, looking forward to reading more in the next Monday Morning Memo. Always great to have you from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Thanks for talking to me, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
A late budget, some movement and a few issues that still aren’t going anywhere. Well, keep watching how it all comes together. For more insight like this, join the thousands of leaders who start their week with Jack’s Monday Morning Memo. A quick, clear, no paywall read, delivered straight to your inbox. Sign up is easy. Just head to our website at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for listening, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
