In the Monday Morning Minute podcast, Jack O’Donnell and Joanna Pasceri discuss the impact of Hurricane Helene on the presidential race, noting that former President Trump’s criticisms of the Biden-Harris administration’s response could benefit his campaign. They also reflect on the policy-heavy vice presidential debate, which they believe won’t significantly sway the election. The conversation shifts to the controversy surrounding New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who faces potential additional indictments and resignations in his administration. They also discuss the upcoming New York state budget, which is expected to face challenges due to inflation and previous commitments. Lastly, they highlight the importance of the upcoming U.S. Senate elections and their potential impact on future cabinet appointments and the presidential race.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner of O’Donnell and Associates
- Joanna Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates
Major Topics Covered
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- Key Issues Influencing the Presidential Race: An analysis of the primary factors contributing to the competitiveness of the current presidential election.
- Voter Sentiment and Polling Trends: Insights into recent polling data and what it reveals about voter attitudes toward the candidates.
- Campaign Strategies and Their Effectiveness: A discussion on the tactics employed by the presidential campaigns and their impact on voter engagement.
- Regional Political Dynamics: Examination of how different regions are responding to the candidates and key issues in the race.
- Upcoming Political Events and Their Potential Impact: A look ahead at scheduled debates, rallies, or other events that could influence the trajectory of the presidential race.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri 00:00
Hi everyone. Thanks for joining us from the lobby for our Monday morning minute, the podcast version of our popular weekly newsletter. It’s when we turn to Jack, Managing Partner, Ed O’Donnell and Associates, and author of our Monday morning memo, for more insight into the topics written about this week, the issues driving the tight presidential race. Top our memo for October 7. Election day is less than a month away, and the campaigning has reached a fever pitch. Let’s bring in Jack to talk about this. Welcome to the podcast. Jack.
Jack O’Donnell 00:33
Hi Joanna,
Joanna Pasceri 00:34
Good to have you. You know, this week, you really did a nice job flushing out one of the recent issues in the race for the White House, the government’s response to the devastation caused by Hurricane Helene. A lot of people don’t realize these storms can also take on a tremendous political toll. Former President Trump understood that he used to lean to attack the Biden Harris administration, making claims that later were proven untruthful. In the end, did this help or hurt his campaign?
Jack O’Donnell 01:03
Well, I think it has to help his campaign that that he’s, you know, raising more doubts about the Biden administration, about Vice President Kamala Harris. I mean, you know, he’s sowing doubt in in a situation that is almost impossible, right? So I do think, you know, one of the things that Trump does very well is to tell people, no one cares about them but him. Now, I don’t think that’s true, and I think the Biden administration exposed some of those untruths, but, you know, it’s really hard to prove things that way, right? It’s, it’s, you know, it’s much easier to say it was bad than to prove that it wasn’t.
Joanna Pasceri 01:48
Now, you mentioned several cases in the past when hurricanes have impacted a presidential race. Which one do you think had the most impact on a campaign?
Jack O’Donnell 01:58
You know, I think it may end up being this Helene, and there’s another storm coming for Florida, I think, predicted on onWednesday, but we saw Hurricane Andrew. That really, it seemed like George Herbert, Walker, Bush really showed some some leadership on and, you know, was in a position to, you know, look good as part of the recovery. And then, you know, there were a whole series where George W Bush, I think, really, again, showed leadership, made sure people saw him, made sure that people knew that the government was trying, and the government cared, of course, that and everything he did and everything he did right was overshadowed by by Hurricane Katrina and that utter, utter failure of the government there. And I think you know, that has a much longer impact on on his legacy and on his presidency. And not that the hot button issues aren’t really important, abortion, immigration, all these different things, but there are only so many places that the federal government impacts your daily life on an urgent basis, and that’s what these crises are. And so I think a lot of folks react to them, and that’s what frames their opinion at the same time. You know, it also creates real logistical nightmares for how you actually administer an election and do that in less than a month.
Joanna Pasceri 03:38
You know, this week you also had a breakdown of the vice president debate, talking more about the issues here, calling it a rare policy heavy discussion. Did any of the issues discussed in that debate actually move the needle on the campaign?
Jack O’Donnell 03:52
No, I mean, to be honest, I love the fact that that the two participants you know spoke for the most part with respect. They engaged, they talked about where policies came from, and at the end of the day, I don’t think it’s going to have any impact on the presidential campaign. I mean, it’s arguable whether who you pick has an impact in the first place. So to narrow it down to one night, no matter how many millions of us watched, I don’t think is going to have a measurable outcome on the on the other hand, we’re talking about a couple 1000 votes in all of these states, or in these swingg states, and so everything has to, has to have some kind of impact, even if we can’t measure it.
Joanna Pasceri 04:33
I noticed in the memo you gave the debate when to JD Vance, why?
Jack O’Donnell 04:38
Well, you know, there are maybe shades of the first Trump Biden debate here too. I mean, I know a lot of Democrats really pushed back on some of what JD Vance said, and that, you know, there were lies or half truths in part of it, but that said, this was a debate performance, and I think for a guy who. Come across somewhat as an evil villain on the debate stage. He came across as a smart, thoughtful, albeit aggressive. You know, young politician with some ideas. He he expressed some humbleness. And, you know, talking about how the abortion referendum in Ohio had changed his views. And, you know, I thought he really, he showed some empathy when, when Tim Walz talked about his his son in a school shooting, I just think on the points JD Vance won, even if some of what he used to do that might not have been entirely factual.
Joanna Pasceri 05:37
Turning down to the New York City Mayor under a cloud of controversy since being indicted on a series of campaign violations, more resignations are coming down from his cabinet. Will Eric Adams be next? I think the big question everybody is asking, can he survive this?
Jack O’Donnell 05:54
Yeah, speaking of half truths and mistruths. I mean, there’s a long way still to go. I mean, I do think Eric Adams is working hard to try to seize the narrative and try to regain the trust, if not of the voters, at the very least, of Governor Cathy Hochul, who has been a great ally of his, and who has the power to remove him. I think a number of these resignations are things he should have done months, if not years, ago, but he’s a loyal guy, and he’s paying the price for that. I guess everyone that I talked to and I spent most the last week in New York City is waiting for the next shoe or shoes to drop. What comes next? We heard from the US Attorney’s Office that there were very likely to be additional indictments, and that there were possibly additional indictments of Eric Adams or superseding indictments. So I think a lot more to come here, and I think these resignations are an attempt to try to reset the narrative. I don’t know that it’s going to work, though.
Joanna Pasceri 07:06
We are a few months away now from the release of Governor Hochul budget for next year, but already a warning from the state budget office about a deficit. How do you think all of this is going to play out?
Jack O’Donnell 07:18
Well, I think in some ways, for those of us here in New York and for a lot of our clients and what we do this, this was the biggest news. The budget director sent out his what’s called a charge letter, which pushes the you know, is the request for the state agencies to put in their budgets to the governor, and he told them to keep them all flat and in a world with the inflation that we’re all living with, and I think that’s that’s really very hard to do, and it’s going to going to mean some tough choices. I mean, we saw last year, the governor proposed what I thought were fairly rational and and thoughtful sort of long term, not how do we cut programs as much? How do we cut the growth, especially around healthcare and around education? The reality is, the people who provide health care and the people who provide education Don’t, don’t want to see any of those cuts, and they push back really, really hard, and I would, too, if that was me or our clients. But what this means is I think we’re setting up for some other fights this January, February, March in Albany, especially around education funding. The compromise last year was that there would be a study. We’re waiting to see the results of that study, but I think that that’ll be a big deal how much money goes to different districts. And if you’re a legislator, if those districts are in you represent them. This is the kind of stuff that that careers are made or broken on. So I think we’re going to see a lot about that and the way that the Medicaid issue was solved last year was this thing called the MCO tax, which is a little bit made up, but is to get some money back from the federal government. And my understanding is that waiver was just applied for in the last couple weeks, and I don’t know if it’ll be approved by January 1 or january 20, and so how that goes? So goes the state budget. So really, a lot to a lot to watch there and get ready for.
Joanna Pasceri 09:30
Yes, as you said, we’ll continue following that closely in the coming weeks, looking ahead to next week’s memo. What are some political happenings you are keeping an eye on?
Jack O’Donnell 09:39
Yeah, you know we’re still really following the United States Senate and what’s happening there. You know, Democrats have a small majority. They’re going to lose a seat in West Virginia. We saw some polling that has put them behind in Montana, and their incumbents behind in Montana and Ohio. So Republicans winning the Senate and. Would be a big deal anywhere, but especially in terms of what Cabinet members either President Harris or President Trump can appoint. So we’re watching that closely as well as what’s happening in the house and the presidential race. So we’ll be watching closely
Joanna Pasceri 10:17
Favorite read this week in our news links?
Jack O’Donnell 10:20
Umm you know, combining a couple of those issues is one of our stories was the impact that the Eric Adams indictment is going to have in congressional races. We’ve got five congressional seats that are neck and neck right in the suburbs of New York City, where everything that happens in New York City is already kind of baked into those those races. You know, this is one of those things that is really, really hard to measure, but to think it won’t have any impact, I think, is a little naive. So I thought that was a great, great read.
Joanna Pasceri 10:59
Yes, interesting read. Check it out. Well, Jack, thanks for that. Deeper dive into this week’s Monday morning memo. Are you getting our memo in your inbox each week? It is easy to subscribe. Just head to our website at O’Donnell solutions.com that’s O’Donnell solutions.com thanks for joining us. We’ll be back from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
