The conversation centers on the impending New York budget, with a focus on Governor Hochul’s aides’ public discussion about fiscal challenges. Key points include the need for tough fiscal decisions, the impact of congestion pricing on the MTA’s $48 billion capital plan, and the sustainability of foundation aid and healthcare spending. Additionally, the discussion touches on the potential impact of voting laws on elections, the strategy of the Harris and Trump campaigns, and the importance of targeted outreach in the upcoming election. The conversation concludes with a look ahead to the next week’s political happenings.
Summary of this Episode
Guests
- Jack O’Donnell: Managing Partner at O’Donnell and Associates
- Joanne Pasceri: Director of Communications at O’Donnell and Associates
Major Topics Covered
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- Unexpected Demographic Shifts: Trump’s notable gains among Hispanic, African-American, and certain female voters contributed to his widespread victory.
- Geographical Breadth of Support: Beyond traditional strongholds, Trump secured wins in the Sunbelt, Midwest, and made significant inroads in typically Democratic regions like New York City.
- Democratic Campaign Shortcomings: The Harris campaign’s inability to present a distinct alternative to Biden’s unpopular administration may have alienated key voter groups.
- Global Political Trends: The U.S. election mirrors a global pattern where incumbent parties in countries like the UK, France, and Germany have recently faced defeats.
- Anticipated Policy Directions: With control over the executive and legislative branches, the GOP is poised to advance initiatives on crime, environmental regulation, healthcare, taxation, and immigration.
Full Transcript of the Episode
Note: This is a generated transcript. Please excuse any typos.
Joanna Pasceri 00:00
Hi everyone. Thanks for joining us from the lobby for our Monday morning minute, the podcast version of our popular weekly newsletter Monday morning memo. It’s when we turn to Jim, managing partner at O’Donnell and Associates, and author of our memo for a deep dive into the topics written about this week, the impending New York budget is the top story for October 21 wrangling over the state’s finances will soon be in full swing. So let’s bring in Jack to discuss this further. Hi Jack and welcome to the podcast.
Jack O’Donnell 00:32
Hi Joanna. Happy Monday.
Joanna Pasceri 00:34
Happy Monday to you. In a rare event, Governor Hochul top aides talked publicly about the spending plan to come. What was behind this interview? Do you think and any surprises on what they said?
Jack O’Donnell 00:47
Not a lot of surprises, but perhaps some clarity. The governor Secretary Karen Percy Keogh and her Director of State Operations, Catherine Garcia, appeared at a panel with the Citizens Budget Commission. And look the CBC. These guys are the ones who have been sort of calling the budgets and calling things straight, no matter what administration has been in power for, I don’t know, the last 50 years, and so I have a lot of respect for them. And I think the fact that you saw both Secretary Keogh and Director of State Operations, Garcia, there is a reflection of how much respect that the CBC has. And I think, well, there wasn’t a lot of I think one of them even said, hey, we’re not making news today. You know? I think it was really sober talk about where the state budget is, where it needs to go, and how important it is to make some tough fiscal decisions over the next couple years. We saw that in budget director Blake Washington’s call letter that told agencies to hold their spending. You know, we’re going to be in for a tight budget again this year, and that’s going to mean a lot of fights.
Joanna Pasceri 02:12
The aides stopped short of talking about congestion pricing, that controversial toll program to raise revenue for the New York City transit system. Do you think there’s any meaning behind that?
Jack O’Donnell 02:23
Well, I think it’s that it’s a hard decision, a hard situation on where we are. The congestion pricing was intended or expected to raise about $15 billion in in bonding for the for the MTA. The MTA also released their next five year capital plan, which would on top calls for another 33 billion on top of that 15 billion that was supposed to come from congestion pricing. So the MTA is the life blood of downstate New York, of the city and the suburbs, but it also means a lot of jobs in upstate. Trains are made upstate, busses are made. Suppliers to all of those people are scattered throughout the state, in every congressional district, everywhere, and so it’s a big deal for all of us, and I think it’s, it’s going to force some real serious discussions about how we get there and how we get this funded next year.
Joanna Pasceri 03:32
Any predictions for how this budget will roll out?
Jack O’Donnell 03:35
Well, you know, I think the two sort of big fights we saw last year. You know, one was really around foundation aid for schools. The governor has said and put in her budget basically that the continued growth of that without leveling it out for actual census numbers, you know, match it, the money to the amount of students you have is unsustainable, and it is. So there’s a study going on right now by the Rockefeller Institute that’s going to look at that. So that’s going to be live. Garcia, and personally, kill spoke about that at the at the conference. So I think that’s going to be live. And then also healthcare. The growth in healthcare spending continues to be just exclusive. And what that means for for the 2025, 26 budget, but what it means especially for the out years, you know, two years from now, three years from now, it’s not sustainable without more income for the state, without whether that’s taxes or fees or whatever else that is, the state last year did some creative accounting to get some additional federal dollars, but they had to apply for that. We haven’t seen that come through yet. So whether that gets done before this budget is released to January will go a long way to how deep those healthcare conversations are.
Joanna Pasceri 05:12
There’s been talk that Governor Hochul expressed interest in a cabinet job if Kamala Harris wins the presidency. Hochul has denied this. What do you think?
Jack O’Donnell 05:22
Yeah, I mean this, this burst into review last last week with an article, but it has been whispered about in Albany and New York City and in Washington and all the places we go, but, but I’ll say now the same thing I’ve told all those people for the last few months. I think Kathy Hochul really enjoys being governor of New York. I think she is a lot that she wants to do as governor of New York, and she’s not going anywhere.
Joanna Pasceri 05:49
Alrighty, well, another day, another court case over New York voting laws. This time it’s over when to count absentee ballots. How could this affect elections?
Jack O’Donnell 05:59
In any of these really close races, every ballot is scrutinized. You know, there could be three lawyers on each side of an election looking over every absentee vote, every emergency ballot, every every mail vote, every foreign vote really to determine, is it is it valid? Is it on time? Are there extraneous marks that could get it thrown out and and it goes down to the wire, and everyone matters in one of the cases, one of the one of the recounts in one of these elections last year, there was a dispute over whether a stain was was blood which would be identifying or catch up which would not be, and the court spent almost three days on that. So in really close races, if these are already counted, trying to get them uncounted is virtually impossible. So in a close race, having the ability to challenge and go through this matter, so we’ll see how many are close. But if the last decade is is any, is any guide, there’ll be one congressional and one Senate and two assembly races that go to those those paper counts.
Joanna Pasceri 07:25
Well, this week’s memo not only includes an election day digest of high-stakes New York congressional races, but also hot races for the New York Senate. So what do you think, Jack, can Democrats in the legislature hold on to super majorities this election day?
Jack O’Donnell 07:40
Well, that’s the question. I mean, presidential years often, often favor Democrats, but they’ve got a few members in in tough seats. Who are, you know, one to fire and defending, defending some places that are going to be tougher for them? So I’m betting that, yes, they lose a couple seats, but hold the hold the two-thirds majority, and we’ll have, we’ll have an assembly preview next week.
Joanna Pasceri 08:11
And speaking of a close race, let’s turn now to the race for the White House. What do you think is the best strategy going forward these next two weeks before Election Day for both Harris and Trump?
Jack O’Donnell 08:23
I think Harris and Trump are both doing everything, and that’s that’s sort of the strategy. I mean, I, I am a big believer in campaigns matter, and what the candidates do over the next two weeks will make a difference. We’ve seen Harris being very responsive. You know, that said, I think, and we’ve talked about this in the memo, a lot of their really targeted outreach, I think, has been effective. And I think the fact that the Harris campaign is raised so much money has so much democratic energy, and they’re coordinating their turnout efforts. You know, I think that’s worth a couple points,especially in a place like Michigan. I mean, you’ve seen the Trump campaign is really focused on, you know, still attacking Kamala Harris. You know, Trump’s latest was, was working at McDonald’s, even though it was closed. To try to emphasize that, he doesn’t think that Kamala Harris ever worked at McDonald’s. I don’t you know it is an effective way of staying in the media, and I know that’s something very important to the former president, and something he does extremely well, but I think Harris is doing a better job of speaking to voters and and putting a GOTV plan together.
Joanna Pasceri 09:47
And something you don’t see too often in these races, Harris now really putting a lot of effort reaching across the aisle to moderate Republicans or Republicans who don’t support Trump for their vote. Is that a good move?
Jack O’Donnell 10:00
I think it’s just more of this targeted approach from them. I think they’ve identified a few different constituencies, and especially, you know, women, Republicans, moderate republican women are a place for them to fish for votes and and that’s why you’re seeing you’re seeing that focus, but you’ve also seen a focus on African American men, you’ve seen a focus on Latinos. You’ve seen a focus on these different groups, and also, especially women who don’t vote. There’s been a huge outreach from the Harris campaign towards those folks, to women who don’t vote that often, or don’t vote at all. I guess we’ll see in two weeks, but it seems very smart to me.
Joanna Pasceri 10:47
So let’s look ahead to next week’s Monday morning memo. What are some political happenings you are keeping an eye on this week?
Jack O’Donnell 10:53
Well, we’re just watching these races day in and day out. Watch it for kind of different breaks. You know, I know we had talked, talked last week, and there’s a little in the memo about some of the Senate races which go a long way towards deciding whomever is President how successful they are, since their entire cabinet needs to be confirmed by that so, you know, we’re watching all of these races and trying to go as granular as we can to figure out what’s going to happen.
Joanna Pasceri 11:25
Well, Jack. Thanks for that. Deeper dive into this week’s Monday morning memo. Are you getting our memo in your inbox each week? It’s easy to subscribe. Just head to our website at O’Donnell solutions.com that’s O’Donnell solutions.com thanks for joining us for our Monday morning minute we’ll be back from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
