With the 2026 gubernatorial race heating up, this week’s episode of From the Lobby features managing partner Jack O’Donnell parsing two starkly different polls in the Hochul-Blakeman contest, weighing whether Congresswoman Elise Stefanik would have been a stronger Republican challenger, and explaining how Governor Kathy Hochul has managed to sidestep a serious progressive primary. O’Donnell also assesses Hochul’s newly announced AI-powered regulatory reset, the New York City Council’s proposed 18% pay raise, and why banks, law firms, and AI companies are pouring record dollars into Manhattan and Brooklyn office space despite the city’s political turbulence. Host Joanna Pasceri guides the conversation.
Joanna Pasceri
Political momentum can shift in a hurry. Who’s gaining ground, and what could it all mean for the next election? Hi, everybody, and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. This week, two polls tell very different stories about the governor’s race. Also, Governor Hochul says it’s time to streamline state regulations. And despite the political rhetoric, some of the world’s biggest companies continue betting on New York City. Let’s get some perspective. Joining us is Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates. Jack, welcome back to the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great to be with you from the lobby.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s start with the governor’s race. A recent Siena poll had Governor Hochul leading her Republican opponent, Bruce Blakeman, by about 20 points. Then came another poll from the Blakeman camp that has him trailing by just south. So how do voters make sense of these two very different results?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think the first thing is to look at the source, right? Independent polls like Siena, who released their methodology, you know, release the makeup of who they’ve talked to, all those kinds of things are always to be more trusted than polls from individual campaigns. And that’s not a knock on Bruce Blakeman any more than it would be if the poll came from the Hochul campaign. Lots of campaigns do this. They release their own numbers in an effort to build support, in an effort to get attention.
How do you square the result? First, polls are just a snapshot in time. But the real key, and one of the ways that polling is often off or incorrect, is because they’re estimating who’s going to turn out. So trying to figure out what the electorate is going to look like in five months is hard. If you add another 5% of Republican voters turning out, a high Republican turnout and a low Democratic turnout, you’re definitely going to see the Republican candidate do better and vice versa. But the problem for the Blakeman campaign right now is that indications across the country are that Republican voters are less motivated than their Democratic rivals to turn out and vote. So I think we got to take this poll with a few grains of salt.
Joanna Pasceri
Governor Hochul even recently suggested that Congresswoman Elise Stefanik would have been a tougher Republican opponent for governor because of her fundraising ability and national profile. Do you think that’s true?
Jack O’Donnell
Absolutely. We’ve talked about it on this podcast in our Monday Morning Memo. I think Mike Lawler would have been the strongest Republican because he is at times moderate and at times calls out his party. Number two is Stefanik. I think she remains a household name, at least among Republicans statewide. And she had a national fundraising base, and she had an incredible presence on social media. And she was really good at getting to her opponents. Ask the president of Harvard and Penn about that, who had to resign after some questions from her in Congress.
So I think she was a strong candidate. And Blakeman was the least known, a bit more of a similar history as a partisan Republican, but without the same witty repartee and great effective use of social media. And some of that comes just from age. Bruce Blakeman was born at a certain time, came to politics at a certain time, which is a different time than Elise Stefanik and a different time than now. So I do think that’s true. But don’t get me wrong, from everything we said, I expect the race will get tighter as people learn who he is, as he spends some money, and as people start paying attention.
Joanna Pasceri
We’ve seen progressives win races across New York this year. They’ve knocked off incumbents and expanded their influence. Yet Governor Hochul never did face a serious primary challenge from the left. How did she manage that?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, good show to Kathy Hochul and her campaign. I mean, they have done a masterful job of using the power of incumbency, of using her stature as the head of the state Democratic Party to really block out some challengers. And some of that has been around things like a smart endorsement of Zohran Mamdani and delivering resources to him. I think he was a key ally for her as the Democratic convention met a couple months ago in Syracuse in helping keep some progressives in line.
I think we saw her lieutenant governor try to seize this kind of left lane, but that’s not where he had been as a politician in the past. And I think on the left, even more than anywhere else, authenticity matters. And that was a limitation for him. He never really put his campaign together.
And then I think the third factor here, and not to be underrated, is that it was a statewide race. The places where we’ve seen the Democratic left ascendant for the most part — there are small exceptions to that, like Zohran Mamdani — but have been in districts that are solely Democratic districts. These congressional seats, these Assembly and Senate races that the progressives, that the Working Families, that the DSA won, those are places that are all Democrats. You don’t have swing voters, they are not purple districts. And the state is a bit more purple than some parts of New York City. In those places, you have much more pragmatic Democrats looking to someone who represents a broader swath of the electorate than just the Democratic left.
Joanna Pasceri
Meantime, the governor announcing this week she’s going to undergo what she is calling a regulatory reset. Using artificial intelligence, the state plans to review thousands of regulations and see what’s outdated or unnecessary. Is this long overdue?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, it’s certainly long overdue. Whether AI had been up to it in the past is a whole nother question. And look, it’s a powerful tool and kind of exciting and clever for the governor and her team to use it here. The idea is great. Why should you need to deliver six copies of something when you can just email it? Why do we have some regulations where they’re still asking people to fax in their applications? Definitely important to move that stuff forward.
We’ve seen her over the last few years focus on what she calls the customer experience here. Definitely something that she maximized in her time as the county clerk. So it promises to be a really good effort, but, again, it’s sort of small potatoes. What are we going to do about the bigger picture and changing those regulations? So a great start, but I think more to come.
Joanna Pasceri
Talk of a pay raise is back in the conversation for New York City Council members. They’re considering an 18% pay hike along with automatic salary increases every two years. The mayor and the council speaker say they’re not going to take any increases. But do council members deserve this raise? And should elected officials be deciding their own pay?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, broadly, we work with a lot of elected officials, and we see the hours that these folks put in, we see the work they do, we see the sacrifices they make. And most of them are really good people doing hard work for the right reasons. Maybe not all of them, but most of them. So broadly, I am a supporter of paying for the government that you want, which is the best and brightest.
That said, man, it is a tough time out there, and affordability continues to be a real challenge. And so the idea of giving a pay raise, and the absurdity, the insanity of giving it to your own body — voting it for yourself as opposed for someone else later on — just strikes me as tone deaf. And I think some folks will pay the price for that if this goes through. Even the people who say, I’m not going to take it, I don’t think that really inoculates you from that cost.
On the other hand, New York City Council has term limits and these guys and gals have a short period and need to make the best of it. So I don’t think it’s a great idea. I don’t think voters will think it’s a great idea. But I’m not surprised that they’re pushing it.
Joanna Pasceri
Before we let you go, Jack, I thought it was interesting. A report out today shows major banks, law firms and AI companies are leasing record amounts of office space across Manhattan and Brooklyn. This despite big business not always backing New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s proposals or his focus on raising taxes on the wealthy. What’s driving this investment?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, look, New York City, New York State — people want to be here. People want to be in the city because of the workforce, because of all the things that are available in New York City, from the theater to the excitement to the sports teams to Taylor Swift’s wedding. And that’s the argument that a lot of these Democratic socialists and Mamdani make, right? That people complain about higher taxes, but they’re willing to put up with it because they want to be in New York City. Where that tipping point is, I don’t know. But for now, it says that New York City continues to be very resilient. And that’s good for all of us, right?
Joanna Pasceri
Good news for New York in the long run.
Jack O’Donnell
Good news for New York City is good for the rest of the state.
Joanna Pasceri
Jack, great talk as always. Thanks for joining us.
Jack O’Donnell
Enjoyed being with you from the lobby.
Joanna Pasceri
Campaign season is picking up. New policies are taking shape and the decisions being made now could have consequences well beyond Election Day. Stay in the loop. Jack’s Monday Morning Memo delivers thoughtful analysis every week, breaking down the politics, the policies and the people driving the biggest stories in New York and Washington. It’s free, delivered straight to your inbox and you can sign up at odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for joining us, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
