New York’s 2026 political landscape is coming into sharper focus, and on this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, Managing Partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack the week’s biggest stories out of Albany and Washington. A new Siena poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul holding a commanding 20-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman — but with 61% of New Yorkers saying they don’t know Blakeman or have no opinion of him, the race may be far from settled. O’Donnell also weighs in on the growing push to raise taxes on millionaires, a proposal to hike state lawmakers’ salaries, a U.S. Supreme Court decision freezing a redraw of a GOP-leaning congressional district, and Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes’ plan to convert empty office buildings into housing.
Joanna Pasceri
A new poll, a big tax debate brewing in Albany, and a few ideas in the state Capitol that are raising eyebrows. Hi, everyone, and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell, a podcast that cuts through the rhetoric and gets to what truly matters in politics and government. And no one does it better than Jack O’Donnell, Managing Partner of O’Donnell & Associates, one of New York’s leading government affairs firms. Jack spends his days in the middle of these conversations with lawmakers, local leaders and decision makers across the state. So when something shifts in Albany or Washington, he knows about it. Let’s bring him in. Jack, great to have you back from the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, it’s great to be back with you.
Joanna Pasceri
Always so busy this time of year. Let’s start with the newest Siena poll. Governor Hochul still holding a commanding 20-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Blakeman. His approval numbers up a few points. But what really stood out to me, 61% of New Yorkers say they either don’t know who Bruce Blakeman is or don’t have an opinion of him. So what do you do when most voters don’t even recognize your name yet?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, you know, look, first and foremost, another good poll for Governor Kathy Hochul. She has to be feeling good about where she is and where the campaign’s going. That said, I guess two important points here, and they’re a little contrary, but I think both of them are true. The first is, I think this is a big part of the reason that there were a lot of Republicans, a lot of folks around the country who are on the Republican side of things from the White House down, who wanted Elise Stefanik to run — better known, much better with the press and the social media and sort of getting her stuff out there. And the criticism on Bruce Blakeman is that he’s pretty focused on Nassau County. And that continues to appear to be true. We’ll see where that goes. But that’s a real weakness and it makes it much harder to raise money, to build infrastructure, to even hire the right campaign staff. So I think we see some real challenges ahead for him.
The flip side of that is, I mean, gosh, it’s early, right? For those of us who live in this world, are focused on this world, we followed the two Republican contenders at one point, three Republican contenders. There was a point when Mike Lawler was the favorite and Republicans were all coming together around that. So I do think it’s early. I do think in a state like New York, with such strong media, the huge New York media market, that’s going to change. And as it gets closer, this race will heat up. But a lot of New Yorkers are really busy getting their kids to school, getting ready for spring, hoping to take a vacation or trying to pay for food. So I do think that number will change. But the problem is if you aren’t the one driving that change, if it comes from Kathy Hochul’s campaign or national Democrats running negative ads on you, it’s going to be really tough to win this race.
Joanna Pasceri
Another big takeaway from the poll: strong support from voters for raising taxes on people making more than a million dollars a year here in New York. Governor Hochul has pushed back on the idea. New York City Mayor Mamdani wants it. And now we’re hearing the state Senate and Assembly may include this proposal in their budget plans. So is this shaping up to be the next big Albany showdown?
Jack O’Donnell
This, of course, is one of the big issues. Revenue always is. There’s been a little stuff on revenue, which we’ll cover — revenue estimates. We’ll have some of that in our Monday Morning Memo on Monday and some of the details. But I think it’s hot. Mayor Mamdani is a national figure. He is really great at the press and at communicating. And he has really highlighted this issue. And I say that because what’s gotten less press is that the Assembly and Senate for almost the last decade have included similar proposals to increase taxes on the wealthiest New Yorkers as part of their one-House budget documents. Yes, this is a big fight, but no, it’s not new. I think it’s getting a lot of different attention because of Mayor Mamdani and sort of where he comes in.
That said, Governor Hochul has been very clear about where she feels about tax rates. And everybody likes the idea of someone else paying. The danger is a number of those people are also the most mobile. They are the least connected to New York, or the most able to work remotely in New York, or some of them live in New York and have businesses elsewhere. And so the governor believes, and a lot of the business groups in the state agree, New York’s revenue is already highly reliant on these folks. They’re paying the biggest share as it is, highly reliant on them. And that can be dangerous.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, here’s one that’s getting attention in the Capitol. A bill from a state senator from Queens that would raise New York lawmakers’ salaries. According to a report from Capitol Confidential, these salaries would go from $142,000 today to $180,000 by 2028. It’s still early, but do you see this going anywhere?
Jack O’Donnell
No. I am a big fan of most members of the state Legislature. I think we see up close how hard they work, how many hours they work — or most of them work. How dedicated they are. But the reality is in this economic climate, I do not think there is any broad appetite to actually increase those salaries.
Joanna Pasceri
There was also a decision this week from the U.S. Supreme Court, which paused a lower court ruling that would have forced a redraw of a Republican-leaning congressional district representing Staten Island and I think parts of Brooklyn as well. Is this the final word on this?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, it’s the final word for this year on this, I think. I don’t know that there’s any immediate appeal, and really it’s just stayed the decision. That makes it hard to appeal. Look, I think that this is the last word as we head into November, but not the last word for the 2028 elections. But this basically, or essentially, guarantees Republicans at least hold that seat in Congress. And there’s a lot of talk in Democratic circles about wave elections. We saw just unprecedented turnout among Democrats in the Texas Senate primary this week. Definitely a lot of Democratic enthusiasm out there. But the reality is there are only so many seats in play, and this control of Congress really could come down to just a couple seats. So this decision is a big deal.
Joanna Pasceri
And finally, the most-read story this week in our Monday Morning Memo: Crystal Peoples-Stokes proposing a tax incentive to convert empty office buildings into housing. With so much unused office space across New York, this could be a big deal. Does this idea have a real path to becoming law?
Jack O’Donnell
I sure think it does. I think that same enthusiasm we saw in our readers is echoed. We’ve talked to mayors, we’ve talked to developers, we’ve talked to elected officials, we’ve talked to people who live and work in and are trying to activate these downtown communities. And there’s a real appetite for this. Something similar happened in New York City a couple years ago, and we are seeing whole neighborhoods transformed as a result. So look, I think this is really exciting. Anytime you say it’s sponsored by Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes, that automatically means that it’s real. She is so well-respected in the Assembly, in the Legislature, that anything she gets behind is certainly live. But more importantly, I think it’s a good idea, and it’s an idea whose time has come. So we’ll see.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, we can’t wait to see what you’re writing about this in our next Monday Morning Memo. Jack, always great insight. Thanks for joining us.
Jack O’Donnell
Good to talk to you from the lobby.
Joanna Pasceri
A lot is happening right now, and we’re only getting started as the budget season heats up in Albany and campaigns start ramping up across the state. If you want to stay ahead of it all, be sure to check out Jack’s Monday Morning Memo, where he breaks down the biggest political and policy stories making headlines each week. Get it sent to your inbox. Sign-up is easy — just head to our website at odonnellsolutions.com. And of course, subscribe to this podcast so you never miss an episode. Thanks for joining us, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
