The New York governor’s race is suddenly a lot more competitive. A new Siena poll shows Governor Kathy Hochul’s lead over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman has been cut in half — from 20 points to 10 — signaling a potential shift as voters begin tuning into the 2026 contest. On this episode of From the Lobby, host Joanna Pasceri sits down with Jack O’Donnell, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates, to unpack what’s driving the tightening race, where Blakeman is gaining an unexpected edge, and why AI-generated campaign ads, DSA primary wins, and a stark partisan divide over New York’s future could shape the road to November.
Joanna Pasceri
A new Siena poll just shook up the New York governor’s race. Kathy Hochul still leads Bruce Blakeman, but the gap has been cut in half. That’s a pretty big move. So what’s changed? Hi, everybody, and welcome back to From the Lobby with Jack O’Donnell. Is this the beginning of a real shift or just one poll? We’re also looking at some surprising numbers on crime, immigration, AI and Democratic socialists. Jack O’Donnell is here, managing partner of O’Donnell & Associates to dig into the story behind the numbers. Jack, welcome back to the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Joanna, great to be with you again.
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s get into this poll. The governor’s race is tightening as you’ve predicted here many times before. It’s now a 10 point race, according to a just released poll from Siena University, an independent source. Just a few months ago, the gap was 20% between the two candidates. What changed?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, yes, the race has tightened and, you know, I expect really things to tighten, perhaps even a little more after Labor Day. But, you know, first it’s really important to note that we have a lot of respect for Siena, how they conduct their polls and sort of what this looks like, which is only a snapshot in time, not a prediction exactly of what’s gonna happen. But it’s also a little different than their last poll. This is likely voters versus registered voters. So that, number one, makes a difference. These are folks who at least said that they were going to vote. And a lot of the polls that we like to work with in more depth are, you know, really, you balance that and screen it for people who do have a history of voting. There’s a lot of folks out there who like to say they’re going to vote, but if they haven’t voted in the past, it’s unlikely. But I’m getting sidetracked here. So what’s changed? Really, people are starting to pay attention to this race. They’re starting to know who Bruce Blakeman is. And I think that’s certainly a factor here. But another big factor is that we are seeing in this poll and we’re seeing across the country in primaries on both sides of the aisle that people are fed up with the status quo, they’re unhappy with the direction of the state, of the country, of the community, and then they’re taking that out against incumbents. And I think that’s one of the factors that you’re seeing in this poll. There’s a lot of other things, including we see a lot of young voters going against Hochul in this, which is sort of an interesting, a little bit unexpected. We see folks in the suburbs overwhelmingly moving towards Blakeman, in large part I think, because of a reaction to Democratic socialism and all the press around DSA candidates winning in New York City and across the country. I think that’s a big factor. And we’re seeing some independents move against Hochul. I think for the same reasons. This is not necessarily where they’re going to end up, but they’re having their doubts about the Democratic Party right now, while they also entertain some concerns about Washington and the president as well.
Joanna Pasceri
When you look beyond the horse race, the poll does get very interesting. Hochul has the advantage on affordability and New York’s energy future. Blakeman does better on issues like crime and immigration. Are those issues big enough to really hurt Hochul in the end?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, that’s what this election is gonna determine, right? I mean, you know, Lee Zeldin four years ago had similar advantages, especially around crime, especially around public safety, and was able to turn those into the closest race we’ve seen in New York in a generation, since George Pataki was the last Republican to win statewide. But what we’re also seeing is just a huge divide between what issues Democrats care about and what issues Republicans care about. That is also something that comes clear in the primaries we’re watching across the country. Republicans are concerned about crime. Republicans are concerned about immigration, where Democrats are more concerned about affordability, more concerned about housing. Which of these issues takes the forefront over the next 80 days, or whatever it is, will go a long way towards determining who wins in November.
Joanna Pasceri
Another interesting piece of this poll. Blakeman leads Hochul on several personal qualities, like being tough, honest, getting things done, and being in touch with the average New Yorker. Why do you think he scores better in that?
Jack O’Donnell
I think it starts with back to my original point about being an incumbent. The governor’s now been in this office for five years. She was lieutenant governor. Before that, she was in Congress. She was in the county clerk’s office, western New York. And some of that rubs off on these traits where right now people don’t know as much about Blakeman. Outside of Long Island, where he is better known, people are just getting to know him. And so a big part of this and one of the challenges for his campaign and opportunities for the Hochul campaign is how do they define him? What does that do to change people’s perceptions or not?
Joanna Pasceri
Let’s talk about AI. A majority of New Yorkers in the poll have a negative view of artificial intelligence. At the same time here, Blakeman is facing a Board of Elections violation over campaign ads that use AI generated images of Hochul without clearly disclosing that they’re AI. How big of an issue is this technology in campaigns now?
Jack O’Donnell
I think this issue is huge going forward, not just in campaigns, but in life and how people react to that and how government is reacting to AI. People say they hate it because they’re afraid of different things coming out. And it’s also a lack of understanding. What does AI mean to you? It might be very different than what it means to me or a researcher. So I think that’s a big part of this. But at the same time, everyone’s using it. Everyone is using it for different things. And look, Blakeman not disclosing it is a problem. He needs to do that. The State Board, I’m sure, will tell him he needs to do that. But at the same time, we’re seeing some ads in the north country congressional race where the Republican campaign is putting words in the Democratic candidate’s mouth with AI. Now they disclose that it’s AI. But as this technology evolves, people need to be really careful and skeptical about what they see.
Joanna Pasceri
Well, the poll also takes a look at the DSA, the progressive wing of the Democratic Party. Democrats view the DSA favorably. Republicans and independents much more skeptical. As you’ve written a lot in our Monday Morning Memo, the DSA has been gaining influence and winning primaries here in New York and across the country. But do they have the support to get past their GOP opponents in the general election this November?
Jack O’Donnell
Yeah, that’s the really interesting question that we’ve been following a lot. You mentioned we’re writing about it, we’re studying it, we’re trying to understand it. It’s one thing for DSA and more progressive for the left folks to win in seats that are very Democratic and that have a lot of Democrats. Most of these DSA victories, especially in the congressional races on primary day here in New York, are in places that are very few Republicans and aren’t going to be strongly contested. On the other hand, we just saw a DSA candidate win the Democratic primary for United States Senate in Michigan. Michigan is a real purple state. And that is going to be a real test for him to see if he can win over independents, win over some Republicans, and hold more conservative, more moderate Democrats. We already saw backlash to that in the Wisconsin governor’s race where there was a DSA candidate seemingly well ahead in polling, who ended up losing a really narrow race to a more moderate Democrat. I think in reaction to that and as we just talked about, I see in the gubernatorial numbers that we saw this week a reaction to those DSA victories. So that’s a real challenge for Democrats across the board, whether they are DSA or not, be able to win more moderate voters.
Joanna Pasceri
And finally, let’s zoom out a little bit on this poll. Nearly half of New Yorkers say the state’s best days are still ahead, but there’s a sharp partisan divide here. Democrats are optimistic, Republicans and independents much more likely to say the best days are behind us. How could this issue end up shaping the governor’s race?
Jack O’Donnell
Well, I think that’s reflected in some of what we talked about. There was also a different poll that I took a look at this week around perceptions of crime. Even as in most of the large cities across the country, crime numbers are going down, a lot of folks perceive it going up or staying high. That dichotomy, that sort of contrast defines where we are as a country. Some people see one thing and other people see another. And I think as people go to the ballot box in November, how they see the state and the state’s future is going to be very determinative of where we are the day after Election Day.
Joanna Pasceri
Jack, once again, great talking to you in the lobby.
Jack O’Donnell
Great to be with you, Joanna.
Joanna Pasceri
The political conversation keeps changing and with the midterms getting closer, the numbers and the issues behind them are going to matter more. For the latest analysis, political developments and the stories we’re watching, sign up for our Monday Morning Memo. It’s our weekly look at what’s happening in Albany, Washington, and on the campaign trail so you can stay ahead of what’s coming next. Sign up is easy and free. Just head to our website, odonnellsolutions.com. Thanks for joining us, everyone. We’ll see you next time from the lobby with Jack O’Donnell.
