Election Day Digest: New York’s 18th Congressional District 

New York’s 18th Congressional District encompasses much of the Hudson Valley region, including all of Orange County and parts of Dutchess and Ulster counties. The district is known for its mix of suburban and rural communities, with key cities such as Newburgh, Kingston, Middletown, and Poughkeepsie. Historically, it has been a competitive swing district, with a diverse electorate that includes moderate Democrats, Republicans, and independents. Biden won the district (with the current lines) 54%-46%.

The 2024 race between incumbent Democrat Pat Ryan and Republican challenger Alison Esposito is expected to be one of the more competitive Congressional contests in New York State. Both candidates bring strong profiles and have positioned themselves as advocates for public safety, veterans, and middle-class economic growth. This race is seen as a bellwether for the national political climate in swing districts, particularly in light of concerns over the economy, crime, and the handling of international affairs. Democrats are hoping to retain the seat to maintain their foothold in the Hudson Valley, while Republicans see it as a prime opportunity to flip a moderate district in their favor. While the candidates have starkly different views on issues like guns and abortion, they are much closer on topics like public safety and affordability.

Congressman Pat Ryan is a West Point graduate, former Army intelligence officer, and veteran of two combat tours in Iraq. Before his Congressional career, Ryan served as Ulster County Executive, where he focused on local economic development, environmental issues, and veterans’ services. He was first elected to Congress in 2022 after winning a special election and subsequently winning a full term in the November election. Ryan has made supporting veterans a core part of his agenda, advocating for expanded healthcare, mental health services, and job training for former service members. He has also focused his tenure on improving public safety while balancing concerns around civil rights, supporting initiatives for law enforcement reform that aim to increase accountability and community engagement. Ryan has worked to bring federal dollars to the Hudson Valley to improve infrastructure and expand economic opportunities.

Alison Esposito is a former deputy inspector in the New York City Police Department (NYPD) and was the Republican candidate for Lieutenant Governor of New York in 2022, running alongside Lee Zeldin in a race that made significant inroads in traditionally Democratic areas of New York State. Zeldin and Esposito garnered 51% of the vote in NY-18. Esposito is a lifelong New Yorker with a long career in law enforcement, having served in multiple leadership roles at the NYPD. Esposito has made crime reduction and supporting law enforcement central to her platform, emphasizing her role as the “law and order” candidate. Esposito has also focused on economic issues, calling for lower taxes and fewer regulations to boost small businesses and create jobs in the Hudson Valley. On education, she supports expanding school choice, empowering parents in decisions about their children’s education, and opposing curricula she believes injects political ideology into classrooms. Earlier this year the House Republican campaign arm added Esposito to its Young Guns program which provides assistance to Republican candidates running in competitive districts.

Ryan’s military background and local leadership experience in Ulster County give him strong ties to the district. His moderate positions on issues like public safety and the economy, and actions like calling on President Biden to drop out of the race, help him to appeal to centrist voters. Additionally, his work on veterans’ issues resonates with the district’s sizable veteran population. Despite his appeal, Ryan’s re-election prospects face headwinds due to broader national concerns over the economy, national security, and public safety, which Republicans are using as central talking points.

Esposito’s law enforcement background provides her with credibility on issues of crime and public safety, which are top concerns for many voters. Her high-profile 2022 campaign for Lieutenant Governor increased her visibility statewide, including in the Hudson Valley. While her law enforcement credentials appeal to many, her positions on issues such as education and energy may be viewed as too conservative for the more moderate electorate in NY-18. Additionally, the district has leaned Democratic in recent elections, so Esposito will need to make significant inroads with independent and moderate voters to succeed.

This race will be closely watched as both parties aim to solidify their positions in a competitive district. For Pat Ryan, the challenge will be defending his record on public safety and economic development while capitalizing on his appeal as a moderate Democrat. For Alison Esposito, the key will be leveraging her law-and-order message while connecting with voters on economic issues.

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