Election Day Digest: New York’s 17th Congressional District 

New York’s 17th Congressional District includes parts of Rockland, Westchester, Putnam, and Dutchess counties. Historically this district has been a Democratic stronghold, with Biden winning by 10 points in 2020, but recent redistricting and demographic shifts have made it more competitive. In the 2022 race for Governor, for example, Republican Lee Zeldin bested incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul 52-48. It is a suburban and exurban area that spans wealthier communities along the Hudson River, middle-income areas, and working-class neighborhoods. Key issues for voters include taxes, infrastructure, healthcare, and economic development, along with national concerns like inflation and abortion rights.

Rep. Mike Lawler is a freshman Congressman, having won this seat in 2022 by narrowly defeating then-Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Sean Patrick Maloney. A former state assemblyman, Lawler has positioned himself as a moderate Republican focused on fiscal responsibility, reducing taxes, and supporting law enforcement. He has emphasized bipartisan solutions, especially on local issues like public safety and infrastructure, which resonate with suburban voters. However, he aligns with mainstream Republican stances on national issues such as immigration, opposition to progressive taxation, and skepticism toward the Biden administration’s economic policies.

Mondaire Jones previously represented NY-17 before redistricting caused him to run in the neighboring 10th District in 2022, a race he lost. He is now seeking a comeback in his original district. Jones was known as a progressive Democrat and gained national attention as one of the first openly gay Black members of Congress. With the shifting nature of his district, he has taken steps toward the middle like by endorsing George Latimer over squad member progressive Jamaal Bowman. Jones’ platform focuses on opposing Donald Trump, supporting reproductive rights, raising the minimum wage, and criminal justice reform. Despite losing in 2022, Jones remains a favorite of the party’s left wing and is aiming to tap into the district’s traditional Democratic base while making a case for a return to more progressive representation. Jones’ challenge was made more difficult when former Republican Anthony Frascone beat Jones for the Working Families Party line in the primary.  With polls repeatedly showing razor thin margins, a spoiler like Frascone could tip the scale.

While the district has leaned Democratic historically, Lawler’s 2022 victory showed that suburban voters are more open to Republican candidates, especially when economic and public safety issues are top of mind. The ability of either candidate to sway moderate voters in Westchester and Rockland counties will be critical. 

2024 is a presidential election year, and turnout will be higher than in the 2022 midterms. This could benefit Democrats, as higher turnout in a district like NY-17 tends to favor the party. Jones’ success may hinge on mobilizing progressive voters and younger populations, while Lawler will need to solidify his hold on moderate Republicans and independents.

NY-17 could serve as a bellwether for broader national trends. If Republicans are able to maintain or increase their support among suburban voters, Lawler could hold onto the seat. However, if the Democratic Party experiences a resurgence, particularly among suburban women and younger voters, Jones could ride that wave to victory.

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