Election Day Digest – Assembly Edition

What about the balance of power in Albany?

Will the Democrats be able to maintain supermajorities in both Chambers?

OD&A breaks down the campaigns and follows the money trail in the hot races for the Legislature.

Below, we look at the NY Assembly races. We look at the NY Senate races here. 

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AD-1: Since 1995, Fred Thiele has represented the East End of Long Island in the New York State Assembly. In 2025, a new voice will represent “The End” of New York State. Democrats are running Southampton Town Councilperson Thomas Schiavoni better known as “Tommy John” against Stephen Kiely who is currently the Town Attorney for Shelter Island. In recent years, the Suffolk County GOP has made major gains winning control of the County Legislature along with the offices of District Attorney and County Executive. The Assembly Republicans see an opportunity for a potential pickup and have made a sizable investment in this district. In 2020, President Biden won the district with 60 percent of the vote and Governor Hochul won it with 52 percent in 2022. Schiavoni currently out-paces Kiely with a 2:1 cash advantage as of the 11-Day Pre-General with more than $53,000 on hand. Schiavoni has nearly maxed out on the public matching funds program qualifying for over $157,000 while Kiely has received over $96,000. The coveted endorsement of Newsday has also gone to Schiavoni. One thing is certain, the East End will have a new Assemblymember for the first time in 30 years!

AD-4: In one of the biggest upsets of the 2022 election cycle, thirty-year Assemblymember Steve Englebright lost re-election to Ed Flood by just under 700 votes. While President Biden won the district with 54 percent of the vote in 2020, Governor Hochul struggled on Long Island only winning 46 percent of the vote in AD-4. In September, Flood was disbarred in a unanimous ruling by the Appellate Division: Second Judicial Department. After winning a competitive primary, Democrat Rebecca Kassay is running a strong campaign to unseat the first-term Republican incumbent. If Kassay pulls off the victory, her campaign will likely be a model of how to effectively use the public matching funds program. Her campaign has nearly maxed out receiving a combined $340,000 while Flood has qualified for over $87,000. As of the 11-Day Pre-General filing, Flood and Kassay are essentially even with cash on hand. Both have roughly $50,000 in the bank. Democrats are spending heavily to win back this district allocating over $260,000. Newsday has also endorsed Kassay. Education Reform Now Advocacy is also spending actively through an independent expenditure to support Kassay with additional GOTV activities.

AD-11: In a near upset, Assemblymember Kimberly Jean Pierre was able to secure re-election by 285 votes in 2022. After Jean-Pierre decided not to seek re-election, Democrats are running Kwani O’Pharrow to replace her who is both a retired NYPD detective and Navy veteran. The Republican candidate is Joe Cardinale, a retired lieutenant commander of the NYPD. While Newsday has endorsed O’Pharrow, Cardinale retains a slight cash on hand advantage bolstered by a near max out of $156,000 that his campaign has received through public matching funds. President Biden won the district with 58 percent of the vote in 2020 while Governor Hochul underperformed here only receiving 49 percent. Democrats will be counting on higher turnout in a presidential election year to prevent a Republican victory and they’re investing heavily here with the Assembly Democrats having allocated over $450,000 on O’Pharrow.

AD-16: In what’s shaping up to be the most expensive Assembly race in the State, incumbent Gina Sillitti faces off against a first-time Republican candidate in Daniel Norber. Norber was born in the United States and raised in Israel, where he was drafted into the Israeli Defense Forces as a seventeen-year-old and served as a staff sergeant in the military police. Recent discoveries have put doubt into the residency of Norber and Newsday has endorsed Sillitti. In 2020, President Biden won this district comfortably with nearly 58 percent of the vote while Governor Hochul struggled here only securing 48 percent of the vote in 2022. The North Shore of Nassau County isn’t cheap for paid communications given its direct proximity to New York City. Assembly Democrats have allocated over $600,000 and Sillitti retains over $180,000 in campaign cash as of the 11-Day Pre-General filing far exceeding Norber who filed with just over $5,000. Independent expenditures have also spent heavily on Sillitti’s behalf with Education Reform Now Advocacy spending over $42,000 on GOTV efforts. Maidenbaum and Sternberg have built a lucrative legal practice focusing on assisting Nassau County homeowners file property tax grievances and they’ve spent nearly $100,000 on multiple mailers supported by polling & research on Sillitti’s behalf.

AD-21: Indivisible Rockville Centre was one of the many grassroots political organizations formed after the election of Donald Trump. That movement helped contribute to the candidacy and subsequent victory of Judy Griffin in 2018 against Brian Curran who had been originally elected in 2010. In 2022, Curran narrowly defeated Griffin by 138 votes for re-election. Now, the role of the challenger goes back to Griffin. President Biden won the district with 59 percent while Governor Hochul received 50 percent of the vote. Newsday has endorsed Curran. Assembly Democrats have allocated over $400,000 in the hopes of winning back this swing district. Griffin goes into the final days with $55,000 while Curran has $37,000.

AD-23: Fifteen votes was the margin of victory for Stacey Pheffer Amato for re-election in 2022. One of the key contributing factors was the underperformance of Governor Hochul who only secured 38 percent of the vote in this area of Queens compared to the 52 percent of President Biden in 2020. Pheffer Amato faces off once again against Thomas Sullivan who is bolstered this time with a full max-out of $175,000 in public matching funds. Assembly Democrats have allocated over $165,000 to Pheffer Amato with Assembly Republicans also spending on Sullivan. The New York City PBA is looking to keep more moderate and centrist voices in both the Assembly and Senate majorities. Not only have they endorsed Pheffer Amato, but they have also spent $200,000 to support her re-election through an independent expenditure. StudentsFirst (charter schools) and the Business Council have also supported Pheffer Amato through additional independent expenditure activity.

AD-40: Accusations of attempted intervention by the Chinese Communist Party and antisemitism are just some of the storylines in this race between incumbent Ron Kim and his opponent Philip Wang. After winning re-election in 2022 by just 356 votes, Kim won his primary election by a slightly larger margin. The district is more than two-thirds Asian American with public safety increasingly becoming a dominating issue of concern for voters. In 2020, President Biden won the district with 62 percent, but Governor Hochul lost the district with 48 percent of the vote in 2022. Both campaigns have participated in the public matching funds program with Kim qualifying for a combined $179,000 with Wang having received $63,000. In the final days of the campaign, Wang has a slight advantage in campaign cash with nearly $29,000 compared to $21,000 for Kim. Will this contest be another close race? We’ll find out on November 5^th.

AD-45: Why would Assembly Democrats allocate over $70,000 in a district where Donald Trump received 66 percent of the vote and Governor Hochul only won with 23 percent of the vote in 2022? The simple answer is because they think there’s a chance. In 2022, Michael Novakhov defeated Steve Cymbrowitz by approximately 4,500 votes who had represented this heavily Jewish area of southern Brooklyn. Democratic hopeful Joey Cohen Saban attempted to create the Pro-Israel Party as an independent ballot line and has attempted to brand Novakhov as the “George Santos of Sheepshead Bay” for being a Democrat-turned-Republican. Saban has fortified his war chest by nearly maxing out in matching funds having qualified for over $170,000 while Novakhov has qualified for over $80,000. Both campaigns are tight on cash going into the final days with Novakhov only reporting $15,000 and Saban having $5,000. Independent expenditures have also come in heavily backing Saban with Education Reform Now Advocacy spending significantly on his behalf through a high six-figure effort on mailers, phone calls, and text messages. Chance favors the prepared mind. Be prepared to keep an eye on this district.

AD-46: As City Councilmember Justin Brannan aims to become New York City Comptroller, his current Chief of Staff, Chris McCreight is hoping to unseat Republican incumbent Alec Brook Krasny. In 2022, Brook-Krasny defeated two-term Democratic incumbent Mathylde Frontus by just under 1,200 votes. While President Biden narrowly won the district with nearly 52 percent in 2020, Governor Hochul lost the district with 45 percent of the vote. Identity politics of what it actually means to be a Democrat has been a sticking point between the two candidates. Both campaigns go into the final days with plenty of cash. McCreight has $161,000 as of the 11-Day Pre-General filing while Alec Brook-Krasny has $106,000. Both campaigns have also participated in the matching funds program with Brook-Krasny qualifying for over $100,000 and McCreight having received $91,000. Over $100,000 in independent expenditure activity has been reported largely from Education Reform Now Advocacy and StudentsFirst on behalf of McCreight. Assembly Democrats are making a serious push to help McCreight win back this district having allocated over $150,000. Assembly Republicans have also allocated resources to defend Brook-Krasny in the hopes that they can continue to hold onto to their recent political gains in Southern Brooklyn.

AD-96: In 2007, Ken Zebrowski was elected to the New York State Assembly to fill the seat of his late father. After a distinguished seventeen-year career in the State Assembly, Zebrowski announced earlier this year that he would not seek re-election. Rockland Democrats have united behind Clarkstown Town Councilman Patrick Carroll as their candidate against Republican candidate Ronny Diz. President Biden comfortably won the district with 60 percent of the vote in 2020 while Governor Hochul received 52 percent. Assembly Democrats have allocated over $80,000 to support Carroll and he goes into the final days of the campaign with over $136,000 far outpacing Diz who filed with just under $4,000. Democrats likely retain this seat, but the margin of victory will be a strong bellwether to evaluate the continued evolution of politics in Rockland County.

AD-99: In multiple runs for State Senate and in his 2022 campaign for State Assembly, Democratic incumbent Chris Eachus has campaigned as a public servant for “each of us.” Running for an open seat vacated by then Assemblyman Colin Schmitt, Eachus needed each vote in his 2022 Assembly campaign where he won by just 8 votes! As a trained physics educator, Eachus has an appreciation for the “science” in political science. He even once had his Solar Racing Team compete on a Discovery Channel reality show featuring drummer Tommy Lee and hip-hop superstar Ludacris. As an Assemblymember Eachus has joined other Hudson Valley lawmakers in opposition to congestion pricing. Prior to his current tenure in the State Assembly, Eachus served as a county legislator representing portions of both New Windsor and Cornwall that consistently have some of the highest voting turnout in Orange County. He has a tough Republican opponent in Tom LaPolla, a retired FDNY Battalion Chief. Kiryas Joel has enormous political power in this district, and they certainly will once again as the ultimate group of swing voters. In 2020, Donald Trump won the district with 55 percent of the vote while Governor Hochul lost the district with 45 percent of the vote. Assembly Democrats have allocated over $80,000 to defend Eachus. Lapolla currently holds nearly a 2:1 cash advantage in the final days with $59,000 on hand compared to the $33,000 of Eachus. If Eachus loses, don’t be surprised if some Democrats point the blame at the matching funds program. While Eachus has secured $54,000 through the program, Lapolla has qualified for over $116,000. Every dollar counts and those dollars might be enough to make the difference in this contest.

AD-100: For more than two decades, Aileen Gunther has been a reliable voice in the Assembly Majority representing Sullivan and Western Orange ever since winning a special election to fill the vacancy caused by the death of her husband, Jake Gunther. Democrats are running lawyer Paula Kay who was a staffer for both Jake and Aileen Gunther and has been involved in many different economic and housing developments throughout the Hudson Valley. Following a primary, Republicans are running Lou Ingrassia who has served as the Commissioner of the Town of Wallkill Department of Public Works for over a decade and has been actively involved with the Honor Flight. In 2020, President Biden won the district with nearly 54 percent of the vote while Governor Hochul only received 46 percent of the vote in 2022. Assembly Democrats are not used to having to spend significant money here and they’ve allocated nearly $300,000 to support Kay. Assembly Republicans see an opportunity for a potential pick-up and have also allocated resources to support Ingrassia. In a continued trend from law enforcement, the New York City PBA has chosen to strategically back Kay in the hopes that she’ll be a more moderate and centrist voice within the Assembly. The key to victory for Kay will likely be working with Pat Ryan and James Skoufis to have strong Democratic turnout in Middletown and Wallkill.

AD-106: After beating back a competitive primary challenge from Claire Cousin, incumbent Didi Barrett faces off against Republican challenge Stephen Krakower in the General Election. As with the 41^st Senate District currently represented by Michelle Hinchey, the answer of where Upstate begins might also be the 106^th Assembly District that stretches from the Town of Poughkeepsie to Chatham and New Lebanon in Columbia County. President Biden comfortably won the district with 57 percent of the vote in 2020 while Governor Hochul received 52 percent in 2022. Unlike Barrett, Krakower has participated in the matching funds program having qualified for nearly $100,000. However, Barrett goes into the final days of the campaign with an enormous cash advantage of over $100,000 compared to the $10,000 of Krakower. Barrett is known to have a strong relationship with Speaker Carl Heastie and the Assembly Democrats have allocated over $450,000 to support Barrett’s re-election campaign in recent weeks. Progressives in the district were frustrated enough with Barrett to run a competitive primary against her in 2024. The substantial investment made by Assembly Democrats suggests at least in part a strategy of hoping Barrett can win by a larger margin than her roughly 5,000 vote General Election victory in 2022 to dissuade a potential primary challenge from the left in 2026.

AD-107: The Times Union hit the nail on the head with the pro wrestling billing of the “Lobbyist” vs. the “Multimillionaire” in this race. What began as a “Summerslam” primary between lobbyist/advocates Chloe Pierce and Kent Sopris has led to the “Survivor Series” between Pierce and first-term Republican Assemblymember Scott Bendett. Who’s the face or the heel? That largely depends on your party line in this swing district. Pierce has picked up the endorsement of the Times Union and continues to get more traction for her candidacy. Assembly Democrats see the opportunity for a pick-up and have allocated more than $200,000 to support Pierce. Going into the final days of the campaign, Pierce has a strong cash advantage with just under $66,000 compared to the paltry $2,500 of Bendett. While President Biden won this district with 53 percent of the vote in 2020, Governor Hochul only received 48 percent of the vote in 2022. With all due respect to the Columbia, Rensselaer, and Washington County portions of the district, this race will likely be decided in the Town of Bethlehem, the only Albany County municipality in the district where over 30,000 people call their home. Pierce’s campaign increasingly feels like one that’s peaking at the right time. If Pierce pulls off the victory, she’ll likely be the poster woman for how to use the matching funds program over a sustained period of time to build a winning campaign. Through the program, she’s qualified for over $193,000 in combined funds while Bendett has received $187,000. Independent expenditures have also seen the strategic benefit of investing in her candidacy with Pierce being included in a significant six-figure campaign by Education Reform Now Advocacy. By comparison, Bendett has been supported by a relatively modest expenditure by the Business Council. It may be hard to believe but Chloe Pierce has a strong chance of winning an Assembly seat once held by Steve McLaughlin.

AD-119: Utica Greens could soon be Utica Reds. One of the most endangered incumbents is Assemblymember Marianne Buttenschon. Former President Trump won the district with 54 percent in 2020 while Governor Hochul received only 37 percent of the vote in 2022. Last year, Celeste Friend who was the Democratic candidate in the Utica Mayoral race only received 30 percent of the vote. Republican Michael Galime was overwhelmingly elected to succeed Democrat Robert Palmieri who had been the Utica Mayor for 12 years. Buttenschon has cultivated a bipartisan brand working with Senator Joe Griffo on many local issues for Oneida County and the Mohawk Valley but she faces a strong challenge from Republican Christine Esposito. Assembly Democrats know that Buttenschon is in a perennially tough district and have allocated over $220,000 to support her campaign. One key factor in this race is the decision of Buttenschon not to participate in the matching funds program. Esposito has qualified for over $126,000 through the program. In the Utica media market, that means Esposito has real money for her campaign including network television ads. Assembly Republicans have also prioritized investing in Esposito. In the final days, Buttenschon also trails Esposito in campaign cash with Esposito having nearly $70,000 compared to Buttenschon’s $54,000 as of the 11-Day Pre-General filing. Working in Buttenschon’s favor is the largest Coordinated Campaign in the history of the New York State Democratic Party that has an active field office in Utica. Buttenschon knows she has a real race and at a recent rally headlined by Lieutenant Governor Delgado in Utica, Buttenschon had just come from knocking on doors. In this contest, a field margin of a few points might end up deciding the race.

AD-126: Republicans might not say it, but they’re very worried about John Lemondes. In a district where Lemondes won by more than 9,000 votes in 2022, Assembly Republicans have made it a top priority in their limited allocations to shore up Lemondes. Why should they be so worried when President Biden barely won the district with 51 percent in 2020, and Governor Hochul lost with 45 percent in 2022? The answer is Ian Phillips. As candidates are learning this cycle, fully maxing out on the public matching funds program isn’t easy. Phillips qualified to receive the full $175,000 back in July! Lemondes has received over $115,000 through the same program. Central New York is a unique region and the issues in this race have ranged from the Equal Rights Amendment to Owasco Lake. Going into the final days of the campaign, Phillips has nearly a 4:1 cash advantage with $115,000 in the bank. Skaneateles may be skinny but there’s nothing thin about the level of an unprecedented Coordinated Campaign from the New York State Democratic Party where Phillips and his core team of supporters have been key stakeholders. The keys to victory in this race may simply be ABC: Auburn, Baldwinsville, and Camillus.

AD-142: Earlier this summer when Speaker Carl Heastie was on his Statewide Tour, WGRZ pressed both the Speaker and Assemblymember Pat Burke for an update on past allegations made against Burke. The Buffalo News also recently reported legal action taken by the State Assembly against the Division of Human Rights related to those allegations. A bipartisan Assembly Ethics Committee had no finding. It’s part of the overall political equation here that has led to Assembly Democrats allocating over $280,000 to shore up Burke in his re-election campaign to continue representing Lackawanna, Orchard Park, West Seneca, and South Buffalo. Priore fits the central casting biography for a Republican candidate in this district being a lifelong resident, growing up as an altar boy, and with a career in law enforcement who has strong ties to organized labor. Priore has also received some significant endorsements including from the Teamsters. Burke has been more challenged with fundraising compared to his Assembly Majority colleagues and goes into the final days trailing Priore who has $76,000 compared to his $40,000. This is another district where the public matching funds program has been a major factor with Priore qualifying for nearly $150,000 essentially doubling Burke’s $77,000. This is shaping up to likely be another close race where President Biden won the district with 52 percent in 2020, and Governor Hochul lost the district with 49 percent in 2022.

AD-143: First elected to the State Assembly in 2016, Monica Wallace has focused on building a political brand of integrity and honesty compared to her two immediate predecessors (Democrat and Republican) that both had ethics complaints filed against them by members of their own staff and subsequently left office in disgrace. Most of the district is the Town of Cheektowaga that has shifted politically from solid blue to solid purple with shades of red. Last year, Brian Nowak won his election to become the Cheektowaga Town Supervisor by just 53 votes! Core to the political brand of Wallace is a sense of independence in this swing district. Prior to being an Assemblymember, Wallace was a faculty member at the University at Buffalo School of Law, and she has prioritized approaching issues with a sense of principle whether it be term limits or the new matching funds program. Wallace is not participating in the matching funds program while her opponent Pat Chludzinski, an Army veteran and Cheektowaga police officer, has qualified for over $160,000. Assembly Democrats have once again prioritized defending Wallace in this swing district allocating over $234,000. Assembly Republicans have made it a top priority to invest in Chludzinski believing he’s one of their best bets to flip a district. Independent expenditure activity has been limited thus far with the Business Council making a modest investment in mailers in support of Wallace. In this district, all roads lead to Cheektowaga.

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