Election Day Digest – Albany Edition

What about the balance of power in Albany?

Will the Democrats be able to maintain supermajorities in both Chambers?

OD&A breaks down the campaigns and follows the money trail in the hot races for the Legislature.

We begin with the NY Senate.

SD-1, SD-4, SD-7, SD-17, SD-23, SD-38, SD-39, SD-40, SD-41, SD-42, SD-46, SD-48, SD-50, SD-52, SD-56

SD-1: Republican incumbent Anthony Palumbo is facing a strong challenge from former County Legislator Sarah Anker who’s being significantly supported by the New York Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and qualified for the full maximum of $375,000 in Public Matching Funds as of October 8th. In 2020, President Biden won the district with 52 percent of the vote while Governor Hochul lost the district with 46 percent of the vote in 2022. Palumbo retains more than a 2:1 cash-on-hand advantage going into the final days of the campaign with more than $130,000. He has also received the coveted Long Island endorsement from Newsday. Palumbo won re-election relatively comfortably by just under 16,000 votes in 2022. Independent expenditure activity has been limited with just over $30,000 in mailers spent on behalf of Palumbo by the Business Council created: Jobs New York. Time will tell whether the investments made by Senate Democrats and the Anker campaign will pay off.

SD-4: Democratic incumbent Monica Martinez originally won election in an open seat to the 3rd State Senate District in 2018 defeating then Assemblyman Dean Murray to replace Tom Croci. After losing a close race in 2020, Martinez ran for re-election in the newly drawn 4th State Senate district and won another close contest in 2022. In that same election, the political gods finally favored Murray as he won election to the newly drawn 3rd State Senate district. In 2020, President Biden crushed then President Trump in this district by 23 percentage points. In 2022, Governor Hochul struggled across Long Island and dramatically underperformed here securing just above 50 percent of the vote. Martinez secured re-election by just 2,000 votes. In the final stretch, Martinez retains a dramatic cash-on-hand advantage with nearly $250,000 more than her opponent. Senator Martinez has also received the endorsement of Newsday for her re-election. Independent expenditures through charter schools and the Business Council have supported Martinez with over $100,000 in additional spending on mailers.

SD-7: Democrats are counting on Vice President Harris to match President Biden’s performance in 2020 who won the district by 12 points while Governor Hochul received 46 percent of the vote in 2022. If Kim Keiserman manages to defeat political veteran Jack Martins, her campaign will likely be a textbook case of how to effectively build name recognition through the Public Matching Funds program. Combined between the primary and general elections, Keiserman’s campaign has brought in over $630,000 and can still qualify for over $100,000 in additional matching funds. Martins who went into this election season with significantly higher name recognition has also qualified for over $210,000 bolstering his own campaign. Keiserman has proven to be a very effective fundraiser who as of the latest filings has a direct 7:1 cash-on-hand advantage over Martins although that advantage is diminished factoring in the ability for the Nassau County Republican Party to directly support Martins. In 2022, SD-7 was one of the few disappointments of the cycle for Senate Democrats with Anna Kaplan losing re-election by just under 8,000 votes. They’re increasingly bullish on their chances to win back this district after Tom Suozzi’s seismic victory in his Special Election to return to Congress and are investing heavily. Senate Republicans who face a monumental fundraising disadvantage have prioritized much of their limited resources in defending Martins. To date, independent expenditure has been limited with the Nassau PBA having spent just under $20,000 on advertising for Martins.

SD-17: In 2022, Senate Democrats defied the political winds in Southern Brooklyn and were able to fare far better than many of their political partners who saw many of their incumbents defeated in this dynamic political area of New York City. Governor Hochul received just 43% of the vote in 2022 while President Biden won the district by 16 points in 2020. Two years ago, in a new district putting the Asian-American community front and center, Iwen Chu won her election by just 534 votes. This time around, the Republicans are also running an Asian candidate in Stephen Chan, an ex-marine and NYPD sergeant. Republicans see Chu as a vulnerable first-term incumbent and Democrats know they’re in a tough fight to successfully defend this seat. Chu’s campaign is one of only two New York Democratic state legislators who have received designation by the National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee as a Spotlight Race. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins currently serves as its Board Chair. Through Public Matching Funds, Chu has secured $186,000 while Chan has brought in $223,000. His campaign also retains a slight advantage in direct cash on hand going into the final stretch with $241,000 to $229,000. In one of the most notable independent expenditures of the cycle, an effort backed by NYPD members has decided to support Chu and not Chan with $30,000 already committed in digital, direct mail, radio, and video ads. Law enforcement groups have seemingly shifted some of their strategy to backing friendlier and more moderate Democratic incumbents in an increasingly progressive Senate Democratic Majority. The DSCC has also made it a priority to defend Chu, having allocated nearly $200,000. To date, the Senate Republicans have not invested in Chan, perhaps hoping he has enough resources to win on his own.

SD-23: Jessica Scarcella-Spanton had quite the professional apprenticeship in Staten Island politics and government as a staffer including working to elect Michael McMahon as District Attorney and supporting the government work of former Assemblymember Janele Hyer-Spencer and State Senator Diane Savino. After handily winning a three-way primary, Scarcella-Spanton won her election by just over 1,000 votes to succeed Savino who had represented this district that includes most of the North Shore of Staten Island along with parts of Southern Brooklyn including Coney Island. Like Chu, it’s not a secret that Scarcella-Spanton has a tough race and Senate Democrats are making her race a priority having allocated over $200,000. Scarcella-Spanton is still defining her own legislative style but like Savino, her political mentor, she’s already proven to be a strong campaigner. Having fully maxed out on $375,000 in public matching funds, Scarcella-Spanton currently bolsters more than a 10:1 cash on hand advantage over her opponent. Kepi has qualified for just under $94,000 to date from the Public Matching Funds program. As with Chu, Scarcella-Spanton has received similar support from an independent expenditure formed by members of the NYPD. Students First (charter schools) and the Business Council have also supported Scarcella-Spanton with over $120,000 in additional spending on mailers. This race continues the trend of independent expenditures seemingly accepting the reality of a Senate Democratic Majority and wanting to protect its more moderate voices. Senate Republicans have not yet spent in this race devoting almost all their resources to defending their incumbents. Republicans are putting their hopes in perennial candidate Marko Kepi who came into the race with controversy and has created new ethical attention on his efforts to join the NYPD while campaigning. As a military spouse who spent time raising her children while her husband was deployed to Afghanistan as an Army sergeant, family matters to Scarcella-Spanton. Her campaign recently called out Kepi for liking a Facebook comment that suggested people terrorize Scarcella-Spanton’s family. Expect this race to keep being a knock-down-drag-out contest until the end.

SD-38: In 2022, Elijah Reichlin-Melnick was one of three Senate Democratic incumbents defeated for re-election narrowly losing his bid by just over 3,200 votes. This year’s contest puts him in a rematch against incumbent Republican Senator Bill Weber. Both Reichlin-Melnick and Weber go into the final weeks of the campaign with healthy war chests. Reichlin-Melnick slightly edges Weber with $320,000 on hand versus $290,000. Each of the campaigns have also taken advantage of the Public Matching Funds Program with Reichlin-Melnick having qualified for the full max out of $375,000 and Weber also having qualified for $325,000 to date. Politics looks very different for West-of-Hudson communities in the Lower Hudson Valley and Democrats have had an increasingly tougher time with President Biden only winning the district with 51 percent in 2020. Compared to other areas of the State, Governor Hochul only moderately underperformed President Biden in 2022 with 48 percent of the vote. As a former educator, Reichlin-Melnick knows full well that education and school taxes are a top political issue in the district. StudentsFirst, a pro-charter schools’ independent expenditure has made its presence felt with $70,000 in mailers to support Reichlin-Melnick. Senate Democrats have dipped their feet in the water with a moderate investment to bring back their former colleague but haven’t fully plunged into Rockland yet. Meanwhile, Senate Republicans have yet to spend on Weber, perhaps feeling that the fundamental atmospherics favor the current incumbent.

SD-39: From 1967 to 1990, Jay Rolison represented Dutchess County in the New York State Senate. His son, Rob Rolison, has continued the family tradition of public service serving as a Dutchess County legislator from 2003 to 2015, mayor of the city of Poughkeepsie from 2016 to 2022 and now as a New York State Senator. Yet, Rob Rolison, now finds himself in the fight of his political life from Yvette Valdés Smith, the Minority Leader of the Dutchess County Legislature. Seemingly plucked out of demographic central casting, Valdés Smith is running to unseat Rolison in a district that now includes the diverse cities of Beacon, Newburgh, and Poughkeepsie. Her candidacy has garnered national attention from the Giffords PAC, which made her their only endorsed state legislative candidate in New York. Gun violence is a top issue in both Newburgh and Poughkeepsie and New Yorkers Against Gun Violence has also backed Valdés Smith. In 2020, President Biden comfortably won the district by 10 points while Governor Hochul considerably underperformed here only winning 47 percent. Turnout in Poughkeepsie and Newburgh in presidential election years is dramatically higher compared to other years and Democrats are counting on higher Democratic turnout to win this race. Valdés Smith goes into the final weeks with a 2:1 cash on hand advantage and nearly $200,000 in the bank. She’s also qualified for nearly $350,000 in matching funds with Rolison qualifying for over $215,000. Senate Democrats are salivating about their chances to win this race having already allocated nearly $325,000 knowing that a presidential election year environment is their best chance to maximize their investment and win this seat. Based on the most recent independent expenditure reporting, CWA has committed to spending $200,000 in television ads backing Valdés Smith and an expenditure affiliated with Con-Edison has spent nearly $50,000 in digital ads backing Valdés Smith. Rolison has yet to get assistance from the Senate Republicans. The tides of the Hudson appear to be turning against Rolison who’s in real danger of getting rolled over.

SD-40: Now in his third term, Pete Harckham continues to grow in his fundraising prowess. His campaign qualified for the full maximum amount of matching funds in August! Once again, he faces Gina Arena who’s back for a second shot at defeating the Democratic incumbent. Her campaign has qualified for just under $225,000 to date. Harckham enjoys a nearly 4:1 cash on hand advantage with over $385,000 in the bank and is well positioned to get his message to the voters in the final weeks of the election. Fundamentals favor the Democratic incumbent as President Biden won the district by 16 percentage points and Harckham out-performed Governor Hochul winning re-election by nearly 8,500 votes in 2022. Once again, Senate Democrats have already committed a significant investment into Harckham’s campaign. Will Senate Democrats retain their lock on Westchester? We’ll find out soon enough!

SD-41: On paper, Michelle Hinchey was one of the biggest winners in redistricting being freed from a district drawn for George Amedore that stretched from the New Paltz to the Canajoharie exits on the Thruway. The current 41st State Senate district certainly makes more sense on a map including all of Greene and Columbia counties along with Northern Dutchess and Eastern Ulster. In 2022, Hinchey faced one of the toughest re-election fights being drawn into a district where she faced off against Republican incumbent Sue Serino. Hinchey defeated Serino by over 7,600 votes who herself was elected last year to succeed Congressman Marc Molinaro as Dutchess County Executive. Now running for a third term, Hinchey’s hustling for a statement win. Her campaign reported spending over $700,000 alone in the latest campaign filing and enjoys a massive cash on hand advantage over her opponent, Patrick Sheehan. Hinchey has qualified for over $300,000 in matching funds while her opponent failed to qualify for the program. In the perennial debate of where Upstate begins, one could make an argument that the DMZ is this district where political advertising puts you in both the Albany and New York City media markets. In 2020, President Biden comfortably won the district by 14 percentage points and Governor Hochul moderately underperformed those numbers winning 53 percent of the vote. There is a challenging political current under the surface in the Hudson Valley. The region was already changing rapidly with an increased cost of living prior to the Covid-19 pandemic and it has only accelerated in recent years. Hinchey knows full well as a Saugerties native and current incumbent that strategic messaging on affordability is politically expedient for her Hudson Valley constituency. She used it well in tying Serino’s voting record to anger and outrage at Central Hudson in 2022. Look for Hinchey to present herself as the joyful warrior determined to win future rounds of affordability fights for Hudson Valley families in the closing stretch.

SD-42: After eight years in the Assembly and four years in the Senate, James Skoufis has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt that he is a prolific fundraiser. As of the latest filings, Skoufis is in a league of his own with $1.5 million in the bank. The perennial challenge for Skoufis is that the district just doesn’t favor Democrats. Trump won the district in 2020, and Governor Hochul only garnered 43 percent of the vote in 2022. Skoufis won re-election in 2022 by only 1,400 votes over Monroe Councilwoman Dorey Houle in no small part due to receiving the support of the Kiryas Joel communities that are a dominating force in Orange County politics through their bloc vote. Houle nearly pulled off a stunning victory and is now bolstered in her own rematch through the Public Matching Funds Program. She’s qualified for over $400,000 in combined matching funds while Skoufis has brought in $265,000. Houle has very little in the bank going into the final weeks with under $20,000. Nothing can be taken for granted as while Skoufis has built himself up into a political superman, even Superman has his kryptonite. After his close call in 2022, expect Skoufis to have a “job’s not finished” mentality this time around until the polls close on Election Day.

SD-46: Over 28 years in the State Senate, Neil Breslin has cultivated a legacy beyond reproach in his accomplishments and public service to Albany and the Capital Region. After his announcement in early 2024 that he would not seek re-election, Albany Democrats quickly rallied behind Assemblymember Patricia Fahy to be their designated candidate. Montgomery and Schenectady Democrats quickly followed suit. In her 12 years in the State Assembly, the force of Fahy as an advocate for her constituents has become her calling card. The redistricting process traded out the City of Troy and its Rensselaer County portion for the northern portion of the old district drawn by the prior Senate Republican Majority for George Amedore in 2012. The 46th Senate District now includes most of Albany County, all of Schenectady County apart from Niskayuna and the City of Schenectady along with all of Montgomery County. In 2020, Biden easily won the district with 60 percent of the vote with Governor Hochul underperforming with 53 percent of the vote in 2022. Breslin ran slightly ahead of Governor Hochul winning with 55 percent of the vote. Forgive Fahy if she thinks her 2024 campaign theme might be “Back to the Future” as her opponent is businessman Ted Danz who owns and operates Family Danz Heating & Cooling in the Capital Region. Fahy easily defeated Danz back in 2012 in her original campaign for the State Assembly. She’s leaving nothing to chance going into the final weeks of the campaign with over $310,000 dwarfing the Danz campaign that reported only $5,000. Fahy is also expected to qualify for the full maximum of $375,000 in matching funds having already received over $300,000. Danz has benefited from the same program having already qualified for $185,000. Amedore Homes always ramped up its business advertising during the Assembly and Senate campaigns of George Amedore and the same tactic appears to be in use with Family Danz as an effort to boost his name recognition. The Danz campaign likely wishes they chose to pass on commenting on a Fahy press release announcing her labor endorsements instead of making an unforced error in their comments that drew the ire of various unions that have been known to support some Republicans. Expect Fahy to continue to be a force both on the trail and in her government work throughout the remainder of the campaign.

SD-48: The political odyssey of Rachel May in the New York State Senate was born out of the No IDC Movement when she defeated then Senator Dave Valesky in a Democratic primary in 2018. Rachel May has never been the natural politician but she continues to cultivate her own advocacy brand to Central New York issues in the State Senate. After winning re-election in 2020, May faced a closer contest in 2022 being bolstered by having a three-way race and ultimately coming out victorious by just under 8,000 votes. In 2020, President Biden comfortably won the district by 18 percentage points with Governor Hochul only winning with 51 percent of the vote. Senate Democrats are once again spending considerable resources here to shore up May’s candidacy and have already allocated nearly $300,000. May has also qualified for nearly $400,000 in combined matching funds while her Republican opponent, Caleb Slater, has qualified for nearly $240,000. May also has a considerable cash on hand advantage with approximately $190,000 on hand compared to her opponent’s relatively paltry $4,000. Senate Republicans haven’t supported Slater yet as their eyes appear to be set on making a stronger play in SD-50, which is an open seat with current Democratic incumbent John Mannion vacating it to run for Congress. In their debate described as “feisty” and “tense”, May and Slater covered many topics impacting Onondaga and Cayuga counties.

SD-50: In 2022, John Mannion won re-election and secured a back-to-back Democratic supermajority by just 10 votes. Once again, this race could end up determining whether Senate Democrats retain a supermajority. Democrats have Onondaga County Legislature Minority Leader Chris Ryan as their candidate while Republicans have placed their hopes in Salina Town Supervisor Nick Paro to win back this district that had been represented for nearly three decades by John DeFrancisco and for a political hot minute by now Supreme Court Justice Bob Antonacci. Senate Democrats are already spending heavily to support Chris Ryan with over $340,000 allocated in their latest filing while Senate Republicans have yet to invest significantly in Paro. Both Ryan and Paro have benefited from more time to increase their name recognition with voters through their primary campaigns and taking advantage of the Public Matching Funds Program. Ryan has brought in a combined $265,000 in matching funds with Paro essentially matching Ryan with $262,000 in matching funds. In addition to support from Senate Democrats, Ryan has also benefited from $300,000 in spending from CWA through their independent expenditure. Given that Ryan is the President of CWA Local 1123, it comes to no surprise that CWA is looking to get one of their own into the State Senate. While President Biden won the district by 7 percentage points in 2020, Governor Hochul lost the district winning only 48 percent of the vote. Going into the final stretch, Paro only trails Ryan by approximately $30,000 in direct cash on hand. Keep your tabs open to the Onondaga and Oswego Boards of Election on Election Night!

SD-52: In 2022, the Special Master brought Binghamton, Cortland, and Ithaca together into this Central New York/Southern Tier district uniting several key areas of higher educated voters that historically vote Democratic. President Biden won this district by 21 percentage points in 2020 with Governor Hochul winning 55 percent in 2022. After Lea Webb was victorious in the primary, Senate Democrats made a substantial and successful investment in her campaign. Ultimately, Webb won this district by approximately 2,400 votes. Webb along with Senate Democrats are certainly hoping that she can win by a larger margin in a presidential election cycle. Republicans have a strong candidate against Webb in 14-year Tompkins County Legislator Mike Sigler who has already qualified for nearly $200,000 through the Public Matching Funds program while Webb has maxed out securing $375,000 through the program. Webb has been more challenged with fundraising compared to her Senate Majority colleagues and goes into the final weeks with a significant disadvantage in direct cash on hand compared to Sigler who has more than a 2:1 advantage with approximately $190,000 on hand. Webb is one of only two New York Democratic state legislators who have received designation by the National Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee as a Spotlight Race. Senate Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins currently serves as its Board Chair. Senate Democrats will likely continue to bolster Webb while Sigler’s campaign works to take full advantage of the matching funds program. Webb’s campaign has centered its core messaging on reproductive freedom and has sought to brand Sigler as an “anti-choice extremist” while Sigler has accused Webb of participating in a “Medicaid shell game.” The Webb campaign will look to improve on their performance in Broome County and looks to last year’s Democratic successes in the City of Binghamton as reason for cautious optimism with Republicans counting on Sigler to win over enough moderate Democrats and independent voters in Tompkins.

SD-56: Senator Jeremy Cooney seeks a third term in a rematch against former Gates Police Chief Jim VanBrederode. Public safety continues to be a dominating issue in the City of Rochester and throughout Monroe County. The 56th Senate District encompasses the western half of the City of Rochester along with key suburban communities to the east, west, and south of the City of Rochester in Brighton, Gates, Greece, and Henrietta. Cooney has the challenge of connecting with his politically diverse district with an equal mix of urban and suburban political power. Senate Democrats know that this district has unique challenges and it’s in part why they’ve already invested over $200,000 in supporting Cooney’s re-election campaign. This time around, VanBrederode has benefited from the Public Matching Funds Program to the tune of over $330,000 to date. Cooney has also qualified for $155,000 to date and has considerable room to grow in the program. Going into the final weeks of the campaign, Cooney has a sizable advantage in cash on hand with a 20:1 direct cash on hand advantage and will look to improve on his 8,000-vote margin of victory from 2022.

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