2026 Albany Preview

In the wake of New York’s quickly shifting political landscape, expect both Governor Hochul and the Legislature to walk a tightrope in 2026, which could make for plenty of fireworks throughout the budget process and legislative session: bringing progressive issues to the forefront while also forcing decision-makers to focus on the things General Election voters care about, including affordability, housing, reliable energy, and infrastructure. As New York enters an election year, there is pressure for both parties to deliver wins for voters, but the question remains: what can and should those wins look like in the wake of overwhelming political changes. New York City voters overwhelmingly supported Mamdani’s agenda, which centered on affordability and called for higher taxes on New York’s wealthiest individuals and corporations. The result? A new left-leaning coalition of voters emerged, forming in some neighborhoods that supported Trump in 2024 and shifted their backing to Mamdani. Other New York Democrats want in on this new base of support but will need to navigate how to translate Mamdani’s wins into their own.

Although Hochul, the Legislature, and Mamdani may play nice in public, there are clear differences in how far Hochul will go to reach this new base. She is also very focused on avoiding alienating the business community and those who pay the taxes that balance New York’s budget—many of whom are also major political supporters. Hochul has already ruled out raising income taxes on New York’s highest earners, a measure Mamdani is banking on to support his affordability agenda, despite Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie supporting the measure. However, the Governor and Legislature will need to find ways to help deliver on the overwhelmingly popular affordability messaging that became a focal point of the New York City race and captured the attention of the rest of the State (and continues to play well in elections across the country). We expect all leaders to continue to focus on the same successful messaging out of New York City, but primarily focusing on easier areas of compromise, like universal child care and protecting New Yorkers from President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda.

As Hochul and the Legislature walk this tightrope, they will also need to navigate how to deliver fiscal wins in the face of deep cuts from the Trump administration and the “Big Beautiful Bill.” In past election years, the budget has offered both parties an opportunity to provide fiscal wins for voters across the State, but that precedent may be at risk due to those federal cuts. The Department of Budget recently estimated that federal cuts will cost New York about $800 million this year and over $4 billion by 2029. With those numbers, the pressure is on to pinch pennies without voters feeling the pinch.

The 2026 Legislative Session begins on the heels of major political shakeups in 2025. In New York City, Democratic Socialist Zohran Mamdani defeated the establishment-favored candidate, Andrew Cuomo, to be elected mayor. The New York State GOP’s rising star– United States House Rep. Elise Stefanik– announced she would abandon a race for governor, instead planning to leave the House, paving the way for Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman to run against Governor Kathy Hochul in the general election (Hochul, of course, also faces at least one primary challenger: Lt. Governor Antonio Delgado). A flurry of retirements from Congress will also see seats long held by NY powerhouses embroiled in heated primaries.

In the wake of New York’s quickly shifting political landscape, expect both Governor Hochul and the Legislature to walk a tightrope in 2026, which could make for plenty of fireworks throughout the budget process and legislative session: bringing progressive issues to the forefront while also forcing decision-makers to focus on the things General Election voters care about, including affordability, housing, reliable energy, and infrastructure. As New York enters an election year, there is pressure for both parties to deliver wins for voters, but the question remains: what can and should those wins look like in the wake of overwhelming political changes. New York City voters overwhelmingly supported Mamdani’s agenda, which centered on affordability and called for higher taxes on New York’s wealthiest individuals and corporations. The result? A new left-leaning coalition of voters emerged, forming in some neighborhoods that supported Trump in 2024 and shifted their backing to Mamdani. Other New York Democrats want in on this new base of support but will need to navigate how to translate Mamdani’s wins into their own.

Although Hochul, the Legislature, and Mamdani may play nice in public, there are clear differences in how far Hochul will go to reach this new base. She is also very focused on avoiding alienating the business community and those who pay the taxes that balance New York’s budget—many of whom are also major political supporters. Hochul has already ruled out raising income taxes on New York’s highest earners, a measure Mamdani is banking on to support his affordability agenda, despite Assembly Speaker Carl Heastie supporting the measure. However, the Governor and Legislature will need to find ways to help deliver on the overwhelmingly popular affordability messaging that became a focal point of the New York City race and captured the attention of the rest of the State (and continues to play well in elections across the country). We expect all leaders to continue to focus on the same successful messaging out of New York City, but primarily focusing on easier areas of compromise, like universal child care and protecting New Yorkers from President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda.

As Hochul and the Legislature walk this tightrope, they will also need to navigate how to deliver fiscal wins in the face of deep cuts from the Trump administration and the “Big Beautiful Bill.” In past election years, the budget has offered both parties an opportunity to provide fiscal wins for voters across the State, but that precedent may be at risk due to those federal cuts. The Department of Budget recently estimated that federal cuts will cost New York about $800 million this year and over $4 billion by 2029. With those numbers, the pressure is on to pinch pennies without voters feeling the pinch.

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